Corn Finds New Highs as Rainfall Misses Dry Areas
May 07 2021 - 4:19PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
-- Corn for July delivery rose 1.7% to $7.31 1/2 a bushel, its
highest close since March 2013, on the Chicago Board of Trade
Friday as U.S. rainfall this weekend may come up short in quenching
the driest crop areas.
-- Soybeans for July delivery rose 1.3% to $15.98 a bushel, its
highest close since September 2012.
-- Wheat for July delivery rose 1.3% to $7.63 1/4 a bushel, its
highest close since February 2013.
HIGHLIGHTS
Missing the Mark: Rainfall hitting the U.S. Midwest this weekend
appears likely to miss the dry crop-growing areas that need rain
the most in the Northern Plains.
"Upcoming weekend rains are seen mostly sliding south into the
heart of the belt, with a similar pattern for the 6- to 10-day
period as well," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. According to Mr.
Suderman, increasing dryness is being seen in areas of Minnesota
and Iowa in addition to the Dakotas.
The impact of this dryness will be evident in the USDA's next
crop progress report, due Monday at 4 p.m. EDT.
Compromising Positions: Grain traders now turn their attention
to next week's WASDE report from the USDA.
"We are now seeing more positioning in the market" ahead of next
week's long-awaited report, said Karl Setzer of AgriVisor. "This is
one of the most anticipated of the marketing year as it contains
the first official look at new crop balance sheets."
Grains have been finding new multi-year highs in trading this
week amid projections of tight row crop supplies and robust
demand.
INSIGHTS
Slim Pickings: Production of corn is expected to rise by nearly
1 billion bushels in this upcoming growing season, according to
analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. They
predict the USDA will forecast in next week's WASDE report that
U.S. corn production will total 15.07 billion bushels in the
2021-22 growing season, up from 14.18 billion bushels in
2020-21.
Meanwhile, soybean production is expected to total 4.44 billion
bushels, up from 4.14 billion bushels last year.
"Corn production has little room to encounter any problems and
even if conditions are great, we're not going to see a robust
surplus next year," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man
Capital.
Hampered Harvest: Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal
this week also forecast the USDA would peg Brazilian corn
production down to 103.4 million metric tons this year, which is
off nearly 6 million tons from 109 million tons at this time last
year. Soybean production, meanwhile, is expected to rise slightly,
up 100,000 tons to 136.1 million tons.
Argentinian soybean production, meanwhile, is expected to drop
800,000 tons to 46.7 million tons, with corn production up 400,000
tons to 47.4 million tons.
The WASDE is due Wednesday at noon EDT.
Buyer's Remorse: The USDA confirmed Friday morning that China is
still in the market for U.S. corn, with Beijing buying 1.36 million
metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery in the 2021-22 marketing
year.
The fresh buying interest, confirming speculation among traders
this week of China's renewed intentions to snap up U.S. grain
exports, comes as some analysts forecast that China's appetite for
export goods as a whole may be at its apex.
Commodities exports to China fell in April, which may eventually
weigh on prices as the year continues, said Capital Economics.
AHEAD:
-- Tyson Foods Inc. is scheduled to release its first- quarter
earnings before the stock market opens Monday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export inspections
report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly crop progress
report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 07, 2021 16:04 ET (20:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.