After a very strong third quarter, home prices across the United
States continued to climb in October albeit at a slower rate than
in September, rising 7.5 percent in the twelve months since
November 2019, according to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data
released today by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc.
company (NYSE: RDN). The Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and
timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions.
Since the start of the year, the estimated median home price has
increased by an absolute, not annualized, rate of 6.7 percent,
which was higher than the increase recorded in the same period of
2019. The monthly annualized increase recorded in October, while
slower than September, was still the second-best appreciation month
in 2020. The Radian HPI is calculated based on the estimated values
of more than 70 million unique addresses each month, covering all
single-family property types and geographies.
“The end of the traditional summer season has collided headfirst
into the second wave of COVID-19 across the U.S. As such, we would
expect that the coming months, similar to the initial wave, will
show slowing appreciation rates for homes,” noted Steve Gaenzler,
SVP of Data and Analytics. Gaenzler added that “lessening demand
for housing due to typical seasonal patterns may reduce pressures
seen through the first ten months of 2020, however, without active
supply increases home prices should continue to grow.”
NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Median estimated home price in the U.S. rose to $264,585
- October records highest sales for any October, on continued
demand
Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and
condominium homes rose to $264,585. Since the start of 2020, the
median estimated home price in the U.S. has increased more than
$16,667. By region, median home estimates are more than $30,000
higher in the West region than they were at the end of 2019; the
highest dollar gain so far this year. Prices in the MidAtlantic
region are higher by a lesser, $12,200 over the same period,
representing the least absolute gain by a region.
Nationally, demand remained vigorous for home purchases. Sales
of residential homes were at an all-time high for any October on
record. In total, the number of closed home sales was 49 percent
higher than the average October going back to 2007, and nearly 20
percent higher than October of 2019, the prior record October for
sales. Even with the headwinds of 2020 on real estate, the total
count of sale transactions will surpass the 2019 prior full year
record if the final two months average only 235,000 sales per
month, an amount 25 percent lower than the average month so far
this year.
The combination of all-time record sales volume with significant
supply challenges has been the driving force behind increasing home
values throughout 2020.
REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- All Regions continue to appreciate
- Midwest continues to shine compared to other Regions
The regional story of slightly slower price gains is playing out
similarly across all six of our Regional indices. In October, the
annualized price gains from the month prior were all lower.
However, with the exception of the Midwest Region, all of the
Regions still recorded the second or third strongest monthly
appreciation of the year. The Midwest region continues to possess
the largest annual increase compared to the other Regions. The
Northeast continues to be the weakest Region over the last twelve
months.
At the state level we note that in the last 12 months (October
2019 through October 2020), home price appreciation rose in all 50
states, ranging from nearly unchanged to an increase of more than
15 percent. Idaho has recorded the largest rate of price
appreciation over that time period with an annual increase of 15.6
percent. In total, six states have recorded double digit increases
in median home prices. Maryland, North Dakota and Delaware logged
the softest rates of home price appreciation over the last
year.
METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS
- The majority of the nation’s largest cities recorded faster
appreciation in October
- Smaller, big cities outperform the biggest metros
year-to-date
In October, 13 of the top 20 metropolitan areas (CBSAs) reported
faster appreciation rates than the prior month, and 7 of them
recorded the fastest monthly appreciation rate of 2020. Those
achieving the fastest appreciation rate of the year include East
Coast cities such as Philadelphia and Boston, Southern cities
including Dallas and Houston, and western cities including San
Francisco and Seattle.
When we expand our lens to include the 50 largest cities across
the country, 23 of them reported faster appreciation rates in
October as compared to the month earlier. Of those 23, 11 of them
reported the fastest monthly appreciation rate of the entire year.
Year-to-date, the top 5 cities for price appreciation are Boise,
ID, Indianapolis, IN, Burlington, VT, Salt Lake City, UT, and
Milwaukee, WI, each with median estimated prices that are more than
10 percent higher than the estimated value at the end of 2019. So
far in 2020, Seattle has the largest dollar gain of the top 50
cities with median estimated values more than $55,000 higher than
the end of 2019.
ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI
Red Bell, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc., provides national
and regional indices for download at info.radian.com/hpi, along
with information on how to access the full library of indices.
Additional content on the housing market can also be found on
the Radian Insights page located at
https://radian.com/news-and-knowledge/insights.
The company offers the Radian HPI data set along with a client
access portal for content visualization and data extraction. The
engine behind the Radian HPI has created more than 100,000 unique
data series, which are updated on a monthly basis.
The Radian HPI Portal is a self-service data and visualization
platform that contains a library of thousands of high-value indices
based on both geographic dimensions as well as by market, or
property attributes. The platform provides monthly updated access
to nine different geographic dimensions, from the national level
down to zip codes. In addition, the Radian HPI provides unique
insights into market changes, conditions and strength across
multiple property attributes, including bedroom count and livable
square footage. To help enhance customers’ understanding of
granular real estate markets, the library is expanded regularly to
include more insightful indices.
In addition to the services offered by its Red Bell subsidiary,
Radian is ensuring the American dream of homeownership responsibly
and sustainably through products and services that include
industry-leading mortgage insurance and a comprehensive suite of
mortgage, risk, title, valuation, asset management and other real
estate services. The company is powered by technology, informed by
data and driven to deliver new and better ways to transact and
manage risk. Visit www.radian.com to see how Radian is shaping the
future of mortgage and real estate services.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201120005195/en/
For Investors John Damian – Phone: 215.231.1383 Email:
john.damian@radian.com For the Media Rashi Iyer – Phone:
215.231.1167 Email: rashi.iyer@radian.com
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