SEATTLE, Sept. 25, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- After a
remarkably hot summer, home sales are expected to peak this fall
then taper off in 2021 while staying above pre-pandemic levels,
according to a forecast by Zillow's team of economists
in this week's Market Report1. Key market stats from the
week ending Sept. 19 show depleted
inventory levels plumbing new depths and prices skyrocketing over
2019 figures.
FORECAST: Housing market outlook improves, with major
unknowns tempering expectations
- Sales expected to stay high but taper down through
2021
Zillow's team of economists expect seasonally adjusted
home sales to peak this fall then gradually decline through 2021.
Sales volumes overall are forecasted to remain higher than
pre-pandemic levels throughout this year and next.
- Home price outlook adjusted higher for coming
year
Seasonally adjusted home prices are expected to
increase 1.2% from August to November and rise 4.8% between
August 2020 and August 2021. Zillow Research's previous forecast
predicted a 3.8% increase in home prices over this time frame.
- Here's why:
Zillow's predictions for seasonally
adjusted home prices and pending sales are more optimistic than
previous forecasts because sales and prices have stayed strong
through the summer months amid increasingly short inventory and
high demand. The pandemic also pushed the buying season further
back in the year, adding to recent sales. Future sources of
uncertainty including lapsed fiscal relief, the long-term fate of
policies supporting the rental and mortgage market, and
virus-specific factors, were incorporated into this
outlook.
KEY STATS: Market update for the week ending Sept. 19
Rate of homes going under contract slows slightly, but time
on market still short
- Buyers are still extremely keen to purchase houses, with newly
pending sales up 21.8% compared to last year. However, the frenzied
activity of the summer is showing signs of the typical fall
slowdown, dropping 2.8% compared to a month ago and down 1% since
the week prior.
- Typical time-on-market for listings stayed steady at 13 days,
which is 14 days quicker than last year. Among the 50 largest U.S.
markets, Cincinnati and
Columbus, Ohio, shared the
shortest typical time on market at four days to pending.
Nashville posted the longest
typical time on market at 33 days, while New York and Virginia Beach both marked
32.
Inventory shortage falls further
- Total inventory dropped even further in a steady decline that
began the first week of June. For-sale listings fell an enormous
34.6% below this week last year; the largest year-over-year deficit
seen since Zillow's weekly stats began in 2019.
- There were 13.6% fewer new listings last week than at this
point last year.
Prices soar amid strong demand and low supply
- The median sale price continued its meteoric rise to
$284,000 as of the week ending
Aug. 8, 8.7% higher than the previous
year and the largest year-over-year increase seen since at least
the beginning of 2019. Sale prices were up 2% over the month
prior.
- The median list price rose to $345,000, a full 10% over last year but just 0.1%
higher than a month prior.
New home sales astound in August
- New home sales have been particularly robust, even within this
astounding buying season. The annualized pace of new home sales in
August exceeded 1 million homes -- a benchmark unseen since
2006.
Metropolitan
Area*
|
Newly
Pending
Sales -
YoY
|
Newly
Pending
Sales -
WoW
|
Median
Days to
Pending
|
Total
For-Sale
Listings
- YoY
|
New
For-Sale
Listings
- YoY
|
New
For-Sale
Listings
- WoW
|
Median
Sale
Price**
|
Median
Sale
Price -
YoY**
|
United
States
|
21.8%
|
-1.0%
|
13
|
-34.6%
|
-13.6%
|
4.2%
|
284000
|
8.7%
|
New York/Newark,
NY/NJ
|
60.4%
|
0.8%
|
32
|
-20.1%
|
-11.5%
|
-0.8%
|
445000
|
2.7%
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
8.1%
|
0.7%
|
12
|
-24.9%
|
8.4%
|
3.4%
|
713375
|
7.7%
|
Chicago,
IL
|
38.2%
|
-2.2%
|
13
|
-28.5%
|
-1.0%
|
8.7%
|
264500
|
7.3%
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
30.6%
|
-0.3%
|
23
|
-31.8%
|
-24.4%
|
1.4%
|
303812
|
9.1%
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
37.1%
|
3.3%
|
9
|
-37.3%
|
-5.8%
|
10.5%
|
279000
|
5.3%
|
Houston,
TX
|
25.4%
|
-0.2%
|
17
|
-29.1%
|
-17.3%
|
8.2%
|
271529
|
9.9%
|
Washington,
DC
|
21.8%
|
2.9%
|
7
|
-34.4%
|
-1.6%
|
3.6%
|
459431
|
8.4%
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
40.1%
|
2.6%
|
27
|
-13.4%
|
-12.3%
|
4.6%
|
329750
|
12.4%
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
15.8%
|
-3.3%
|
14
|
-30.6%
|
-22.0%
|
6.3%
|
283850
|
10.4%
|
Boston, MA
|
6.3%
|
2.4%
|
8
|
-30.5%
|
-18.9%
|
1.6%
|
522500
|
8.1%
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
34.4%
|
-1.6%
|
12
|
-4.3%
|
3.1%
|
24.0%
|
896500
|
12.1%
|
Detroit,
MI
|
41.8%
|
-3.3%
|
8
|
-38.1%
|
-14.9%
|
12.1%
|
222975
|
11.7%
|
Riverside,
CA
|
12.0%
|
-1.4%
|
9
|
-48.1%
|
6.6%
|
6.0%
|
411250
|
10.3%
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
18.9%
|
3.1%
|
11
|
-21.6%
|
0.0%
|
11.9%
|
322500
|
11.9%
|
Seattle,
WA
|
20.5%
|
-2.3%
|
6
|
-32.2%
|
-6.3%
|
-2.8%
|
535525
|
11.1%
|
Minneapolis-St. Paul,
MN
|
31.2%
|
1.1%
|
17
|
-27.1%
|
3.9%
|
-0.3%
|
311625
|
9.3%
|
San Diego,
CA
|
|
|
8
|
-38.2%
|
2.5%
|
-1.7%
|
635188
|
8.9%
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
16.8%
|
-1.6%
|
6
|
-38.4%
|
-11.2%
|
14.7%
|
217912
|
10.7%
|
Tampa, FL
|
|
|
8
|
-34.8%
|
-16.4%
|
-4.4%
|
258409
|
9.5%
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
17.2%
|
6.6%
|
12
|
-44.8%
|
-12.7%
|
9.3%
|
317500
|
0.8%
|
Denver, CO
|
25.8%
|
-1.5%
|
6
|
-34.2%
|
16.2%
|
21.8%
|
462881
|
6.5%
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
52.3%
|
1.3%
|
9
|
-27.2%
|
-2.3%
|
11.8%
|
199499
|
7.7%
|
Portland,
OR
|
21.9%
|
-5.5%
|
6
|
-37.0%
|
-28.4%
|
-1.3%
|
440225
|
8.6%
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
-1.8%
|
-1.1%
|
6
|
-42.9%
|
-19.2%
|
14.2%
|
286500
|
8.5%
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
18.3%
|
-1.5%
|
7
|
-44.1%
|
0.3%
|
1.6%
|
452875
|
8.1%
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
34.4%
|
0.6%
|
27
|
-25.7%
|
-23.1%
|
11.0%
|
252812
|
8.2%
|
Orlando,
FL
|
|
|
12
|
-17.0%
|
-3.0%
|
11.4%
|
282562
|
7.8%
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
12.0%
|
0.7%
|
4
|
-39.1%
|
-3.7%
|
21.9%
|
212125
|
11.8%
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
70.9%
|
0.3%
|
18
|
-39.8%
|
-0.8%
|
-2.5%
|
175350
|
9.6%
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
15.4%
|
-0.6%
|
5
|
-43.7%
|
-4.9%
|
22.8%
|
259250
|
12.7%
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
18.5%
|
-1.4%
|
15
|
-23.3%
|
8.3%
|
2.3%
|
304750
|
-0.1%
|
Columbus,
OH
|
18.6%
|
0.6%
|
4
|
-40.1%
|
-11.4%
|
10.4%
|
240500
|
16.1%
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
14.0%
|
2.4%
|
5
|
-41.0%
|
6.7%
|
31.9%
|
222625
|
8.4%
|
San Jose,
CA
|
-9.7%
|
-3.5%
|
15
|
-20.2%
|
20.3%
|
18.1%
|
1139375
|
8.6%
|
Austin, TX
|
29.2%
|
2.0%
|
8
|
-37.0%
|
-2.9%
|
41.5%
|
357978
|
12.4%
|
Virginia Beach,
VA
|
|
|
32
|
-40.7%
|
-1.3%
|
0.7%
|
276912
|
8.1%
|
Nashville,
TN
|
|
|
33
|
-24.0%
|
-36.9%
|
17.5%
|
317850
|
5.1%
|
Providence,
RI
|
-2.9%
|
3.7%
|
13
|
-38.3%
|
-24.4%
|
4.2%
|
318600
|
5.4%
|
Milwaukee,
WI
|
|
|
28
|
-6.5%
|
-6.2%
|
31.2%
|
207475
|
6.9%
|
Jacksonville,
FL
|
43.2%
|
1.4%
|
14
|
-36.7%
|
-17.0%
|
0.2%
|
268362
|
1.3%
|
Memphis,
TN
|
33.9%
|
1.1%
|
7
|
-45.4%
|
-20.2%
|
6.1%
|
209212
|
7.0%
|
Oklahoma City,
OK
|
20.4%
|
-4.6%
|
10
|
-35.5%
|
-6.2%
|
24.8%
|
205750
|
12.5%
|
Louisville,
KY
|
3.0%
|
-0.6%
|
5
|
-43.9%
|
-8.3%
|
1.3%
|
217812
|
9.0%
|
Hartford,
CT
|
49.6%
|
-1.3%
|
10
|
-41.5%
|
5.7%
|
10.9%
|
258800
|
7.8%
|
Richmond,
VA
|
|
|
6
|
-39.9%
|
-10.0%
|
9.3%
|
284688
|
7.9%
|
New Orleans,
LA
|
4.1%
|
-1.7%
|
17
|
-44.0%
|
-20.8%
|
-2.0%
|
232875
|
6.6%
|
Buffalo,
NY
|
18.7%
|
-2.5%
|
10
|
-36.2%
|
-8.6%
|
-0.3%
|
189850
|
9.7%
|
Raleigh,
NC
|
15.0%
|
1.3%
|
5
|
-41.4%
|
-25.7%
|
13.1%
|
312812
|
5.8%
|
Birmingham,
AL
|
43.2%
|
0.9%
|
8
|
-35.4%
|
9.3%
|
22.3%
|
224942
|
4.8%
|
Salt Lake City,
UT
|
|
|
6
|
-45.5%
|
-33.7%
|
29.8%
|
381916
|
11.2%
|
*Table ordered by
market size
|
**Sale price data
as of the week ending Aug. 8
|
|
1 The
Zillow Weekly Market Reports are a weekly overview of the national
and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow
Economic Research and data is aggregated from public sources and
listing data on Zillow.com. New for-sale listings data reflect
daily counts using a smoothed, seven-day trailing average. Total
for-sale listings, newly pending sales, days to pending and median
list price data reflect weekly counts using a smoothed, four-week
trailing average. National newly pending sales trends are based
upon aggregation of the 38 largest metro areas where historic
pending listing data coverage is most statistically reliable, and
excludes some metros due to upstream data coverage issues. For more
information, visit www.zillow.com/research/.
|
About Zillow
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building an on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling,
buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's
businesses to find and get into their next home with speed,
certainty and ease.
In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys
and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country,
allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans,
our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to
get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home
purchase.
Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start
their home search, and now they can rely on Zillow to help them
finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they've
come to expect from real estate's most trusted brand.
Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and
ZG).
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