Growth Questions Weigh on Stocks - Analyst Blog
May 12 2011 - 5:08AM
Zacks
Is the sell-off in the commodity complex the unwinding of a bubble
or a sign of legitimate concerns about the U.S. economy's growth
momentum? Or is it a combination of the two?
I would be hard-pressed to characterize recent developments in the
silver market as anything but a speculative frenzy. But that is
hardly the case in many other commodities, including oil, where
supply-demand arguments can reasonably be made.
At the same time, we have been seeing some soft economic readings
lately. The sub-par first-quarter GDP growth rate and the ISM
weakness do point to underlying softness.
As such, the answer to the question raised above is likely the
latter -- a combination of the two. In any case, the pullback in
commodity prices is a net positive for the economy by relieving the
build-up in pricing pressures.
Today's plate-full of economic reports helps us address this issue
to some extent. We had Jobless Claims, PPI, and Retail Sales on the
docket this morning. The wholesale inflation number came a shade
hotter than expected, while Retail Sales were a tad softer than
expected. In the ongoing inflation vs. growth debate, today's
reports show growth as the more worrisome variable than
inflation.
On the labor market front, we got a reversal in the recent negative
trend in the Jobless Claims numbers. Weekly claims fell 44,000 last
week to 434,000, essentially reversing the steep rise reported last
week.
The Jobless Claims numbers had started moving up in April after
steadily coming down earlier in the year. A number of technical and
administrative reasons were given for the recent upswing in claims,
ranging from issues related to the start of a new quarter to the
Good Friday holiday and emergency benefits in Oregon. The sharp
drop in today's report bears out those explanations.
On the earnings front, we had a good earning beat from
Cisco (CSCO) after the close Wednesday. But the
network giant provided a weak outlook, maintaining its recent track
record of weak quarterly results.
Kohl's (KSS) met
EPS expectations, but came short on the top line.
The most important issue for stocks is sizing up the economy's
growth outlook. Today's softish retail sales report appears to show
that the first quarter's weakness has carried into the current
quarter. We may be in trouble if this trend continues in the coming
days.
CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
KOHLS CORP (KSS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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