Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMA) Quote

I know this report says 2024 but it is dated June 13th and I haven't seen anything about it - https://www.fhfa.gov/document/fhfa-2024-annual-report-to-congress.pdf

@pulte @FHFA hosting a very interesting meeting today. Waiting on the minutes.— The McNamara Brief (@McNamara_Brief) June 17, 2025

makes sense, especially if the reason for his silence is really because of the 30 days of quiet period 

The stress test results must have been known for a long time. It only takes a few days to do the analysis.

You aren’t really trying to act like he left early because of something related to FnF are you?

U.S. President Trump is not leaving the G7 Summit in Canada early for discussions about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, according to CBS News.— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 17, 2025

If they are meeting with the SEC about uplisting. I would bet Pulte has the results of the stress test. I would think so anyway.

Current Book Value per Share (Approximate): As of Q1 2025, Fannie Mae's net worth (which is its book value) was approximately $80 billion. With 1.16 billion common shares outstanding, the book value per share is roughly $68.97 ($80 billion / 1.16 billion shares).[2]
Future Capital Accumulation: If Fannie Mae retains $12 billion in net income annually for, say, 2-3 years post-conservatorship, its book value would increase significantly.
Year 1: $80 billion + $12 billion = $92 billion
Year 2: $92 billion + $12 billion = $104 billion
Year 3: $104 billion + $12 billion = $116 billion
Future Book Value per Share (after 3 years of retention): $116 billion / 1.16 billion shares = $100 per share.
---
Numerical Substantiation for a $34 Target
Shareholder Lawsuits: The ongoing shareholder lawsuits seeking compensation for the Treasury sweeps could significantly impact the valuation. A favorable resolution for shareholders, potentially leading to a settlement or a ruling that allows for greater shareholder participation in future profits, would be a strong catalyst for a higher stock price.
Legislative or Administrative Reform: A clear path to recapitalization and release from conservatorship, whether through legislative action or administrative changes by the FHFA and Treasury, would de-risk the investment and likely lead to a re-rating of the stock.
Calculation:

Conservatorship Exit & Full Capital Retention: Fannie Mae is released from conservatorship by late 2025 or early 2026, and is allowed to retain 100% of its future earnings.
Average Annual Net Income: Fannie Mae generates an average annual net income of $12 billion post-conservatorship, reflecting a stable housing market and efficient operations. (Historically, Fannie Mae has demonstrated the ability to generate significant profits. For example, in 2021, Fannie Mae reported net income of $22.1 billion, and in 2022, $12.9 billion, though 2023 saw a decrease due to market conditions).[1]
Shares Outstanding: Approximately 1.16 billion common shares outstanding (this number can fluctuate slightly due to various factors).
Target Price-to-Book (P/B) Multiple: A P/B multiple of 1.5x to 1.7x, which is a reasonable range for well-capitalized financial institutions with stable earnings.
Target Price: $100 (Future Book Value per Share) * 0.34 (Implied P/B multiple for $34 target) = $34.
Now, applying the target P/B multiple:

Current Book Value per Share (Approximate): As of Q1 2025, Fannie Mae's net worth (which is its book value) was approximately $80 billion. With 1.16 billion common shares outstanding, the book value per share is roughly $68.97 ($80 billion / 1.16 billion shares).[2]
Future Capital Accumulation: If Fannie Mae retains $12 billion in net income annually for, say, 2-3 years post-conservatorship, its book value would increase significantly.
Year 1: $80 billion + $12 billion = $92 billion
Year 2: $92 billion + $12 billion = $104 billion
Year 3: $104 billion + $12 billion = $116 billion
Future Book Value per Share (after 3 years of retention): $116 billion / 1.16 billion shares = $100 per share.
Alternative Scenario: Focus on Earnings Power and a Lower P/B Multiple

This calculation shows that for a $34 target to be substantiated, even with a significantly increased book value per share (e.g., $100), the market would still be valuing Fannie Mae at a substantial discount to its book value (0.34x P/B). This indicates that a $34 target is likely not based on a standard P/B multiple for a fully normalized financial institution, but rather on a more conservative valuation, or perhaps a "recovery value" that anticipates only partial recognition of its intrinsic value due to lingering uncertainties.

Let's re-evaluate the $34 target based on a more direct earnings power approach, assuming a lower P/B multiple is applied due to the unique nature of the entity.

Required Book Value per Share: $34 / 0.5 = $68.
If the market were to value Fannie Mae at a 0.5x P/B multiple (still a discount, but less severe than 0.34x), then for a $34 target, the book value per share would need to be:

A 0.5x P/B multiple for Fannie Mae, even post-conservatorship, could be justified by:

Why a 0.5x P/B Multiple?

This means that if Fannie Mae's book value per share remains around its current level of approximately $68.97, and the market applies a 0.5x P/B multiple, the stock price would be around $34. This scenario, where the current book value is recognized at a 0.5x multiple, is the most direct numerical path to a $34 target without requiring significant future capital accumulation beyond current levels.

Conclusion on Numerical Substantiation:

Perceived Government Control/Intervention Risk: Even if released from conservatorship, the market might still price in the risk of future government intervention or limitations on its business model.
Utility-Like Nature: Fannie Mae operates in a highly regulated, quasi-utility fashion. Utilities often trade at lower P/B multiples than growth companies.
Limited Growth Prospects: While essential, Fannie Mae's core business of guaranteeing mortgages is mature and highly dependent on the overall housing market, potentially limiting significant organic growth.
Dividend Policy Uncertainty: The market might be uncertain about future dividend policies, which impacts investor returns.
A $34 FNMA target is most directly substantiated by the market applying a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of approximately 0.5x to Fannie Mae's current book value per share of around $68.97. This implies that investors believe Fannie Mae's current net worth is undervalued by half, or that future earnings retention will be significant enough to justify this multiple on a slightly higher book value. This valuation would be contingent on a clear path out of conservatorship and the ability to operate as a self-sustaining entity, even if still under significant regulatory oversight.

Everybody notice that President Trump left G7 tonight?

Who has 2 thumbs and thinks this meeting tomorrow will result in no action for the stock?

There will-be-no details after the meeting tomorrow

Everything is going to go quiet for a period of time and might not hear anything of the meeting for months. Next big deal after the meeting will be 2nd QTR earnings and stress test results.

Plenty of upside from here. So load em up people.

He has been awfully quiet today. Wonder if Pulte messaged him on X? Just sayin …

The Senator letters are extremely bullish for us. The timing is mere formality so that they can say they opposed Trump's agenda, but in truth, they can't do a damn thing. They know this of course, but they still have to do their bitching for show.

We all knew this meeting was about uplisting, but there were some that were saying this is just a standard meeting and for us not to get our hopes up. This letter puts all that to bed. Clearly, tomorrow's meeting is about uplisting the GSEs. We all put two and two together after the Trump tweets and then Pulte announcing the meeting with the SEC, Bessent, etc. But it still was not clear. We have been led to believe this meeting has happened quarterly since 2008. Obviously, that has not been the case. I believe this is a HERA violation, but I am not certain, nor do I think that matters at this point. Maybe it does though as it clearly shows a lack of duties by the government in regards to the GSEs (WOW SHOCKER LOL). Anyway, tomorrow will definitely be exciting. GLTA

This is not the first time such a letter has been written. They did this last time Trump was president and made mention of privatizing. I wish they could give them the big middle finger at this point.

Wow, pretty wild how Pulte immediately deleted Navy's retweet about the meeting tomorrow on X. Today the democrats letter pointed out his announcement via social media. Man, they are watching every move he makes like a hawk. Sure, hope something positive and impactful comes out of his meeting tomorrow but it seems like closing would have been higher.

The best strategy to imitate Ackman's long position is to directly invest in FNMA and FMCC, while closely monitoring political and regulatory developments, assessing market sentiment, and considering the use of options to manage risk.

Warren/Schumer et al just want to oppose anything the current administration wants to do. They have no authority to object what FHFA is doing.

Undoubtedly, Warren has already purchased tons of FnF stocks, nasty Pocahontas gets to make millions on insider trading !!!

I don't see E Warren opposing to the privatization plan which is a fantastic news! The due diligence questions are valid and appear harmless. SPS can be considered paid as strength in F2 balance sheet is a win-win when the future setup involves a structure where commons benefit both the tax payer and the "common" shareholders 

Funny how they teach us
we can learn a lot from failure
but I've never heard of any
courses offered or mandatory
from grade school through college

I read this letter as public acknowledgement that the entire BHUA Senate Committee expects "privatization" of F2 soon. That is, private ownership on a public stock exchange (NYSE obv).

How is this negative? Who cares what information they request? The ppl in tomorrow's meeting will make their recommendation and POTUS will approve it. Simple.

They didn't invite Atkins to embarrass him or the SEC. This meeting should be golden for shareholders.

I joined @RepTomSuozzi, the Housing for US Coalition & Building and Construction Trades Council of Greater NY President Gary LaBarbera, in a bipartisan push to release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a way to increase pathways to homeownership for working- and middle-class… pic.twitter.com/2K8kVsLM4M— Office of Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (@RepNicole) June 16, 2025

Once again...smoke and mirrors. They (the Dems) have no ability to summon anyone before a committee unless the Republicans vote with them to summons.

"Individual Members of Congress: Individual members of Congress, without a specific delegation of oversight authority, cannot compel responses to their inquiries through subpoenas or contempt proceedings, although agencies may still respond to these requests. "

So they can request all they want. There is no requirement for the Treasury, FHFA, etc to respond unless the sub-committee in charge of oversight requests it.

...and remember Pulte as Chairman of the board as the legal responsibility not to public disclose financially tangible events done by the GSEs. So he has a legitimate legal reason not to disclose to Congress any negotiation which would reveal an impending event which would move stock prices. And requests to know about events could be construed as requesting insider information. So guess what...those meetings will be secret until the outcome can be made to everyone at the same time.

We are seeing some finesse with this.

True. But it is a very intriguing letter if you ask me. So much to unpack. I have to go to my daughter's soccer game rn but I will be on later to see everyone's thoughts.

We need to provide a letter of our own -

President Trump, Bill Pulte, Scott Turner, Scott Bessent and We the Shareholders need to draft and submit our own letter, demanding answers from Senators Warren Schumer Kim Wyden Hirono and Warnock regarding the LIES, FRAUD, CORRUPTION, WASTE AND OUTRIGHT THIEVERY of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - and every single time these Senators submit a letter demanding answers, or ANYTHING, they should be immediately delivered copies of OUR letter demanding answers. BE SPECIFIC regarding the instances of fraud, lies, strong arming the F'n'F Boards of Directors - the whole shooting match.
Need help drafting the letter? Plenty of people here who would love to contribute I'm sure.

And, guys - don't forget to make our letter public, send it to the NYT, WSJ, Washington Post, AP.....Fox News.....anyone who will listen.

Some real powerhouse garbage on that letter!

Where was Dems concern in the last 17 years?
When will Her Bankinking Committee role end?

Here is the whole letter for those that couldn't find it. It says the board has not had these meetings since 2017????? Is this correct?
https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20250616%20Letter%20to%20Agencies%20re_%20FHFA%20Board%20Meeting%20Enterprises%20pdf.pdf

The more Democratic Senators letters against us the better imo. Keep up the work Pocahontas!!!

Bessent was a Soros guy, but that does not mean he is still a Soros guy.

I joined @RepTomSuozzi, the Housing for US Coalition & Building and Construction Trades Council of Greater NY President Gary LaBarbera, in a bipartisan push to release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a way to increase pathways to homeownership for working- and middle-class… pic.twitter.com/2K8kVsLM4M— Office of Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (@RepNicole) June 16, 2025

Bessent is a Soros guy. Worked directly for George and received seed money for his hedge fund from George. After everything Soros has said against Trump and allegedly done through influence and $$$, it seems questionable to me. I can't comment on what that has to do with my stock being released from conservatorship.

Somehow we lost 10 cents end of day.  It was probably Sherwin.  We could see a $1 pop tomorrow.

We can wonder why Royce "the government can do anything" Lamberth is still serving. Perfect opportunity to double down....maybe we need congress to leave Judge shopping alone for a minute.

Anyway the government can claim sweaty equity because $81k is suspiciously low. Taking into account how inefficient government action is monetarily the Governemnt can claim the cost of conserving to be very high. Look at all the hoops they had to jump through: It took some creativity to structure the deal so that the government protection (conservator), had no connection to the payment to the Government Boss (UST), who had no connection to law enforcement (SEC and any related experts who wrote white papers on counterfeit shares), who had no connection to the Judiciary. None of them were family or friends. And then formulating the anti-circular payment Net Worth Swipe took the best economic minds available. Consultants are expensive.

SENATE DEMS EFFECTIVELY DRAFT ONE PAGE INVESTMENT THESIS IN THEIR QUESTIONING OF TRUMP'S SEC, FHFA, HUD and Treasury Directors (See attached screenshot) $FNMA #FANNIEGATE $FMCC $FMCKJ $FNMAS https://t.co/0ZY81cPNK3 https://t.co/XAg9lV6j4x pic.twitter.com/JwP0R0K8Qd— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) June 16, 2025

Too much Idolizing and/or demonizing
the guys running the GSE/FHFA Train,
Let's Just Shut Up and Wait
I'll Go First

"I expect him to give a very vague, politically correct, run of the mill, standardized responses"

Go ahead and buy that with confidence. It comes with a guarantee! LOL!

I saw this as well and thought of our situation. I think this is definitely a possibility. It would make sense with the information they have put forth so far. Whatever happens needs to happen before mid-terms imo as I am thinking it would probably need legislation.

Musk told Trump that Lutnick would be more suited at Treasury than would be Bessent. You reckon it was an omen?

A handful of Democratic senators are asking key government officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for information regarding a meeting this week where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be discussed. https://t.co/8pZwUHUpbl $FNMA #FANNIEGATE— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) June 16, 2025

The one scenario that it may play out that way , is he and his buddies have all loaded up on commons on one way or the other (Cough 1789 ventures or whatever that is) and if releasing it as-is, gets his pot fuller, he can do it.

WIll there be outcry from the world that he has let them go for free while he could have made X00 billion for the tax payer ? Yah.. But do you think he cares? He will create a distraction like buying UK or selling hawaii or leasing the moon and everyone will move on to that topic.

It all depends on how their coffers get filled.. If you seriously think that they are to solve, deficit and utilize fannie money etc... OK, believe.

Pulte's silence is primarily around the June 18th deadline, than the June 17th deadline..

I expect him to give a very vague, politically correct, run of the mill, standardized responses to their questions and start the tweet from 18th onwards...My weightage to this as the reason for the silence is 75%

There is also a 25% chance, there is some serious discussions that may happen in tomorrow's meeting, but knowing his social media presence, that would make him tease it out like crazy and milk the attention to the max.. But he may have received some advise on tips and insider trading etc.. so may be thats why he is quiet..

Lets see.. what comes out tomorrow (which may not be much) and day after..

"you cannot take 79.9% of a 7 trillion company for 81K"

With the judicial system we now have in this country, please don't sat that too loudly!

On second thought, with the greed, corruption and arrogance we now have in this country, please don't say it at all!

No Donor money in 2024, No opinions in 2025 is how the GSE Saga will go from here..

I think that article was hilarious (I didnt take it too seriously...).. It may be a sarcastic dig at carney too... Do you seriously believe he said all that :)

Was hoping to close over $10📺☹️

Geez, that is scary. I thought Bessent was the one guy in the administration that actually might be qualified, but it sounds like he's as nutty as the rest of them.

Well, enjoy the next 17 years in limbo.

1st the Government has always had a position in the GSEs. That position will be worth 300-400 million if we hit a new ATH. They won’t sell but use that number to offset the deficit. They will receive dividends and the whole package will go into the SWF. I disagree on the courts. They try to take anymore shareholder value, there will be 100 judges just hoping to get our class action lawsuit to halt 47’s plans. Pulte knows it, so does Bessent which means 47 knows it. We have a seat at the table with strong cards.

🐴💩😎