IanFromSI
2 days ago
At least it seemed that way in most all the articles I read.
It also coincided with the overall market falling after increased tariffs were announced for Canada, Mexico, and China.
WhiIe I can’t speak for you, there are very few, if any, journalists that I would take any investing advice from. And I might say the same thing about many of the analysts.
Perhaps we need to be more selective about whose posts we read and which journalist we respect enough to even skin through their articles. I used to highly regard Barron’s. most of the time I no longer read more than the headline for any particular article.
IanFromSI
2 days ago
Many factors affect stock prices. Looking at average numbers for a sector can be very misleading as there are almost always very high variations from top to bottom and not all factors affecting pricing will be consistent with each other go to the whole sector.
While Andy Grove was the CEO at Intel, Intel had the best margins in the industry and priced its products so that potential competitors were kept on the verge of bankruptcy.
I doubt that either you or Shawne would buy a stock based upon looking at a single factor. Both of you seem to have a reasonable understanding of both fundamentals and technicals.
I find posts that focus on a single factor without any regard for many of the more important factors. I have no value to myself and probably of not much value of any to others.
I had prepared the table, which somehow got thrown away. It would’ve gone right about here.
I’m too lazy to prepare it agaiin
The following takeaways, probably give you the gist of what I was going to say.
Key Takeaways:
• Nvidia has a strong gross margin (75.86%) and a relatively lower PEG ratio (0.80), indicating expected growth relative to valuation.
• Intel currently has a negative P/E ratio (-5.42) due to losses, so a PEG ratio is not meaningful.
• Broadcom has an extremely high P/E ratio (162.13), suggesting an expensive valuation despite its strong gross margin (75%).
• AMD has a high P/E ratio (99.86) but lacks a PEG ratio estimate.
Sources: StockAnalysis Investing.com FinanceCharts ? ? ? ?.
Jetmek_03052
2 days ago
That's nice, but I thought you wanted to talk about the margins of semiconductor companies???
Do you have any comment on the fact that if semiconductor companies average gross margin is 60-65%, why NVDA is taking a hit for having a 70% margin?
I mean sure, it was higher. But even 70% gross margin is higher than almost all the other semiconductor companies.
Or why Broadcom (A.K.A. AVGO, a stock you seem to highly regard) has a much lower gross margin than NVDA at this point, but you only seem to diss NVDA's gross margin?
Jetmek_03052
2 days ago
You can question copilot using the same language I did. You'll get the same list. I had nothing to do with the fact that copilot left semiconductor's off the list.
As a matter of fact, to check YOUR figures (which I usually find worth doing), I just asked copilot "What is the average gross margin for semi conductor companies". This is the answer I got.
The average gross margin for semiconductor companies can vary, but it generally falls within the range of 45% to 60%2. For example, companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom have gross margins around 64% and 63% respectively. Other companies like Texas Instruments and NXP Semiconductors have gross margins around 58% and 56%.
And I truly did not remember Huang saying that. But - my question is? If the average gross margin for semiconductor companies (like NVDA) is listed at 45% - 60%??? The why are people bitching and moaning about NVDA's 70% margins? Also? IF the average semiconductor margin is high at 60%? I wonder why Huang thinks 70% is low? Must be low for only NVDA, eh???
I specifically asked copilot about AVGO's (Broadcom's) margins (a company for whom you seem to have expressed love for) and it again stated a margin of 63% - FAR lower than NVDA's! Wonder why? I wonder if AVGO's stock price takes a hit for that number???
Jetmek_03052
2 days ago
Pretty amazing that most investors aren't pleased with NVDA's gross margins. I realize that the margin has been decreasing. Yes. But 70% gross margin???? It seems pretty good. Then I said to myself - I really do not have a good idea of what even an "average" margin would be for a computer hardware manufacturer. And I do realize that NVDA is more than that., but it is mostly being judged on the margins centered around that very thing - sales of hardware.
So, I asked copilot - what are the gross margins for specific industries? Here is what it returned for an answer -
Gross margins can vary significantly across different industries. Here are some examples of average gross margins for various industries:
Advertising Agencies: 46.1%
Aerospace & Defense: 26.5%
Apparel Manufacturing: 48.9%
Asset Management: 82.4%
Auto Manufacturers: 14.2%
Banks - Diversified: 88.9%
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic: 48.5%
Biotechnology: 86.7%
Chemicals: 20.6%
Computer Hardware: 39.3%
Credit Services: 83.5%
Drug Manufacturers - General: 72%
Food Distribution: 14.5%
Grocery Stores: 27.6%
Healthcare Plans: 55.8%
Pharmaceuticals: 57.8%
Software: 70.9%
So, between Computer Hardware at 39.3% and Software at 70.9%??? I think that most people's expectations for NVDA's gross margin are fairly unreasonable.
Unfortunately, it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it. It is obviously because the gross margin is decreasing, not that it isn't pretty good.
Jetmek_03052
2 days ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/fund-manager-who-predicted-nvidia-rally-revamps-stock-forecast/ar-AA1A3i7O?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=e03d371c9f8546c38a2bbc5b18bc1d95&ei=6
"Even though some on Wall Street are nudging their price targets higher by a few dollars, following last night’s earnings report from Nvidia, we are maintaining our $175 price target," said Versace in a TheStreet Pro post. "We’re going to see some EPS re-jiggering largely due to Nvidia’s gross margin guidance. The company sees its non-GAAP gross margin falling to 70.6% to 71.0% in the current quarter, down from 73.5% in the January quarter and 75.0% the one before that."
"What’s weighing on those margins, at least in the near term, is the continued ramp of Nvidia’s Blackwell solutions," noted Versace. "As production matures, Nvidia’s management expects those margins will return to the mid-70s “later this year.”
Margin headwinds aren't great, but they're not unexpected as Nvidia ramps up investments to capture a huge market opportunity. As Versace points out, "While there is fodder for the Nvidia bulls and bears... the reality is that we are still in the early innings when it comes to AI."
What will it take for Versace to increase his price target?
"Rather than assume the margin impact of the Blackwell ramp will be limited to one or two quarters, we’ll look for confirmation margins are getting back on track before revisiting," concluded Versace.
4retire
2 days ago
Intel
is pushing off the opening of its Ohio chip manufacturing facility, the embattled chipmaker said Friday.
The company said it won’t complete construction on the first plant until 2030, starting operations that year or the next. The second factory in the up to $100-billion complex will likely be finished in 2031 and start running the following year. The company had initially planned to begin production on the first plant in 2025.
“As we continue to invest across our U.S. sites, it’s important that we align the start of production of our fabs with the needs of our business and broader market demand,” said Naga Chandrasekaran, vice president and head of global operations officer for Intel Foundry Manufacturing, in a release. “This has always been our approach, as it allows us to manage our capital responsibly and adapt to the needs of our customers.”
Intel, long the world’s leading semiconductor maker before losing that distinction in recent years, has been on a downward slide due largely to its position on the sidelines of the artificial intelligence boom. The stock lost more than half its value last year and the company has been reckoning with slowing sales while also trying to move deeper into the capital-intensive business of chip fabrication.
In August, shares suffered their worst one-day drop on the stock market in 50 years after the company announced disappointing quarterly results. Intel also said it would axe 15% of its employees. That’s made the company a potential takeover target as of late, while also leading to the firing of CEO Pat Gelsinger in December.
Intel was a central beneficiary of former President Joe Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act office. The government most recently awarded the company a roughly $8 billion grant in November in an effort to boost semiconductor production on U.S. soil.
cadillacdave
3 days ago
Sounds like you have done very well with it, with a 40x. Congratulations!
It seems that you got in earlier than I did and good for you. I made money with the buy and hold for about 18 months and then traded the stock, when the momentum susbsided.
The article you posted makes sense and I believe there is more upside potential here. The fundamentals are great. The concern I have at the moment is the market in general. Goldman Sachs came out with an article today about the likelihood of a correction in the next three months. So of course, that is of concern.
However, if these global wars come to a conclusion and the tariffs produce the desired effect without a big trade war, the markets may respond favorably. Hopefully, thats the case.
GLTY