Balanced View on CF Industries - Analyst Blog
February 24 2014 - 3:00PM
Zacks
On Feb 20, we issued an updated
research report on CF Industries (CF). While the
fertilizer company should benefit from lower natural gas costs in
North America, we are concerned about pricing pressure, high debt
level and near-term challenges in its phosphate business.
CF Industries, a Zacks Rank #3
(Hold) stock, posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2013
results on Feb 18 with both revenues and adjusted earnings beating
the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, revenues and
profit fell year over year on lower fertilizer pricing. The company
saw declines across its nitrogen and phosphate businesses in the
quarter.
CF Industries should benefit from
favorable natural gas costs in North America and a solid start to
the domestic planting season. Moreover, the company has a strong
cash flow profile, which allows it to return value to shareholders
and invest in growth initiatives.
Low-cost North American natural
gas has been an advantage for CF Industries. The company’s Nitrogen
segment is enjoying the benefit of abundant natural gas supply.
Moreover, CF Industries is expected to benefit from strong U.S.
corn plantations.
Moreover, the acquisition of
Viterra Inc.'s 34% interest in the Medicine Hat nitrogen facility
underscores CF Industries’ strategy to invest in lucrative
projects. Following the acquisition, CF Industries’ annual
marketable nitrogen volume rose by roughly 270,000 net tons of
ammonia and 275,000 tons of urea. The company also remains on track
with its capacity expansion projects in Louisiana and Iowa. It
plans to spend roughly $2 billion on capacity expansion projects
this year.
However, CF Industries faces
intense price competition from both domestic and foreign fertilizer
producers. The prices of its products are highly sensitive to
demand and supply. CF Industries is also exposed to volatility in
raw material costs and has significant debt.
While CF Industries is divesting
its Phosphate unit to Mosaic (MOS), weakness in
this business is expected to sustain in the near term. Phosphate
prices are expected to remain constrained due to weak international
demand, especially from India. Unfavorable subsidy for phosphate
products is hurting Indian phosphate imports. Moreover, oversupply
in the market, especially from Chinese export producers, is putting
pressure on the urea market and pricing.
Key Picks from the
Sector
Other companies in the basic
materials sector worth considering include Methanex
Corporation (MEOH) and The Scotts Miracle-Gro
Co. (SMG). While Methanex holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
Buy), Scotts Miracle-Gro retains a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
CF INDUS HLDGS (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
METHANEX CORP (MEOH): Free Stock Analysis Report
MOSAIC CO/THE (MOS): Free Stock Analysis Report
SCOTTS MIRCL-GR (SMG): Free Stock Analysis Report
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