National Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in May was 5.4% and is projected to remain around 5% in June and July 2024
June 21 2024 - 10:22AM
National constant-quality home prices in May 2024 were up 0.6% from
a month ago and 5.4% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted),
according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI)
Housing Center. Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively
high rates, y-o-y HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being
well-qualified and continued competition due to a strong sellers’
market. HPA is projected to remain around 5% in June and July 2024.
The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely
information on home prices available. For example, the Case Shiller
home price index, which will come out later this month, will be an
average of February, March, and April 2024, thus effectively
reflecting March’s HPA. The AEI Housing Center’s June release is
for May, two full months later. Additionally, we use Optimal Blue
rate lock data to project June and July 2024’s home price
appreciation.
May YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros
(see #1 in graphic). It ranged from -2.5% in Austin (-5.8%
inflation-adjusted) to 11.2% in Providence (+7.9%
inflation-adjusted). Austin is down 10.1% from its peak in April
2022.
As of May 2024, metros with historically moderate HPA growth are
now appreciating the fastest, while the former high-performers are
experiencing the opposite (see #2 in graphic).
Historically, the low price tier HPA has outpaced those in the
upper price tiers. This trend continued in May, with the YoY HPA up
7.9% and 4.2% for the low price tier and high price tier,
respectively.
Months’ supply stood at 3.1 months in May 2024, up from 3.0
months in April 2024 and down from 3.2 months in May 2019
(pre-pandemic) (see #3 in graphic). Low levels of supply continue
to signal a strong seller’s market. The months’ supply for the low
price tier came in at 2.0 months in May 2024, helping to explain
the 7.9% YoY price growth for this tier.
National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – May 2024
Media Contact Details:
Sissi LiAmerican Enterprise Institute
Housing CenterWashington,
DChttps://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/Sissi.Li@aei.org 203-419-5240
A photo accompanying this announcement is available
at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/18d364f4-0842-4f74-a09d-76b169fcdbf3