NEW YORK, March 18, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference
Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
increased 0.2 percent in February to 110.5 (2016 = 100), following
a 0.5 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase
in December.
"The U.S. LEI continued rising in February, suggesting economic
growth should continue well into this year," said Ataman
Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference
Board. "Indeed, the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and a
new round of large fiscal supports are not yet fully reflected in
the LEI. With those developments, The Conference Board now expects
the pace of growth to improve even further this year, with the U.S.
economy expanding by 5.5 percent in 2021."
"Despite widespread improvements among the leading indicators,
some measures—including weekly hours in manufacturing, permits for
residential housing, and consumers' outlook for business and
economic conditions—showed signs of weakness. Bad weather and
assorted supply-chain disruptions may have impacted these
particular leading indicators in February, and the effects may
prove transitory."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic
Index® (CEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.1 percent in
February to 103.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in
January and a 0.1 percent decrease in December.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG)
for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 104.5 (2016 =
100), following a 2.3 percent decrease in January and 0.4 percent
increase in December.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, April 22 at 10
A.M. ET.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite
economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system
designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The
leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially
composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or
lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal
common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and
more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily
because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual
components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding
aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business
cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the
member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's
ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit
entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
www.conference-board.org
Summary Table of
Composite Economic Indexes
|
|
|
2020
|
2021
|
|
6-month
|
|
Dec
|
|
Jan
|
|
Feb
|
|
Aug to
Feb
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Leading
Index
|
109.7
|
|
110.3
|
|
110.5
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.4
|
|
0.5
|
|
0.2
|
p
|
3.8
|
|
Diffusion
|
75
|
|
70
|
|
65
|
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coincident
Index
|
102.9
|
r
|
103.1
|
r
|
103.0
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
-0.1
|
r
|
0.2
|
|
-0.1
|
p
|
1.2
|
|
Diffusion
|
25
|
|
75
|
|
75
|
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lagging
Index
|
106.8
|
|
104.3
|
r
|
104.5
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.4
|
r
|
-2.3
|
r
|
0.2
|
p
|
-2.8
|
|
Diffusion
|
50
|
|
28.6
|
|
71.4
|
|
35.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
p
Preliminary r Revised
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Indexes equal 100 in
2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: The
Conference Board
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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SOURCE The Conference Board