CORRECT: Smart Meters Are Emerging, Smart Market For Chips
March 25 2009 - 3:08PM
Dow Jones News
The home electricity meter is getting a high-tech makeover, and
chip makers stand to benefit.
With a shove from the Obama Administration's stimulus package,
utilities are replacing rusty electricity meters in favor of
digital "smart meters" as part of a much broader update of U.S.
energy infrastructure. The update of meters alone could represent
billions in revenue for chip makers over the next decade, though
how quickly utilities will roll out the new products remains
unclear.
"I think it's a growth opportunity, I think it will be sizable,
but it will be fits and starts," Gartner chip analyst Stephen Ohr
said. "And it will take time."
Unlike older meters that served mostly as electricity bean
counters, tallying up total energy use until a utility employee
read the meter, smart meters can do more. They capture information
about how much power is consumed, but also when and at what price,
so utilities can better manage distribution and consumers can look
for savings by doing some chores when energy is cheaper, like at
night.
At this point, estimates for the size of the market vary, but
chip makers and analysts see the opportunity as large. Gartner
expects more than 150 million smart meters to be installed
worldwide in the next five years, with approximately 50% installed
in North America. Between 2007 and 2012, Gartner expects smart
meters to create to $2 billion in business for semiconductor
makers.
Over the next decade, however, Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
expects much more. Mark Buccini, head of TI's smart grid strategic
business development, said smart meters could be a $7.5 billion
market for chip makers. When including ancillary products - such as
digital, connected thermostats and other devices - that number
could roughly double.
Amid the total smart grid segment, "The smart meter, home area
network is the biggest piece that we've identified," Buccini
said.
Analog chip companies in particular - such as TI, Analog Devices
Inc. (ADI), STMicronelectronics NV (STM), Freescale Semiconductor
Inc. and others - will see most of the gains as the market expands.
Smart meters use communications chips such as short distance
radios, measurement devices, signal processors and microcontrollers
to coordinate the different functions.
Meanwhile, Intel Corp. (INTC) and others will likely benefit
from the need for more computing power to manage data and
electricity infrastructure.
To be sure, much depends on the timetable utilities set in
creating the new, smarter grid.
Of the $43 billion appropriation set out for the energy sector
in the U.S. stimulus package, roughly $4.5 billion is aimed at
smart grid projects. But on a national scale, most utilities are
only working on pilot projects, not a full roll-out.
"Rather than the floodgates opening, maybe its more like a
rising tide," said Gartner's Ohr.
In Boulder, Colo., Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) began a program called
SmartGridCity that is the first full-fledged test of a smart grid
in the U.S. And earlier this month, PG&E Corp. (PCG) received
approval from regulators to install communications technology in
already deployed digital utility meters to allow the devices to
interact via a wireless network with other meters and PG&E's
computers.
Utilities are still trying to convince consumers that the costs
of installing meters and, more broadly, the smart grid will be made
up in cost savings generated from more efficient use of
electricity.
It's a tough sell.
In Texas this month, Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC, a
Dallas-based utility, is installing smart meters, but will charge
customers $2.21 a month for the next 11 years, reported the Dallas
Morning News. An editorial in favor of the plan was met with some
populist ire, and was followed by a story from a local NBC
affiliate in which consumer were upset about the costs.
The perception is that utilities are simply passing costs on to
consumers for upgrades to their infrastructure. However, as
consumers become more accustomed to a simplified system, many hope
they will realize the benefits in energy savings.
"The meter has to tell the consumer information that he wants to
know," Ohr said. "He doesn't want to read the meter in terms of
kilowatt hours or voltage or current. What the person needs to know
is at this time of the day, how much does it cost to run your
dishwasher?"
-By Jerry A. DiColo; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5670;
jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com
(Cassandra Sweet contributed to this article.)