CALGARY, Feb. 11, 2019 /CNW/ - OBSIDIAN ENERGY LTD. (TSX –
OBE, NYSE – OBE.BC) ("Obsidian Energy", the
"Company", "we", "us" or "our") is
pleased to release its year-end 2018 independent reserves
evaluation and provide Company updates on our recent drilling
results, marketing and hedging portfolio, 2019 development and
guidance revisions.
2018 Year-End Reserves Summary
The Company is pleased to present the results of its year-end
2018 independent reserves evaluation, prepared by Sproule
Associates Limited ("Sproule").
2018 marks the second year in a
row that Obsidian Energy has achieved greater than 100 percent
reserve replacement on proved plus probable ("2P") and total
proved reserves ("1P"). This increase is a direct result and
recognition of the performance of our 2018 Cardium drilling program
with a 1P and 2P reserve replacement in the Cardium of
approximately 150 and 140 percent respectively. Our Cardium assets
in Willesden Green continue to perform with 16 additional
undeveloped locations added to our book's primary Cardium count.
The Company also continues to see benefits from its optimization
and decline mitigation projects with an average three year proved
developed producing ("PDP") decline of 15.8 percent. We are
excited about the future development opportunities, particularly in
our Cardium assets, which will allow us to create long term value
for our shareholders.
Reserve Highlights:
- Replaced 102 percent of 2018 production on a 2P reserves basis,
109 percent on a 1P reserves basis and 66 percent on a PDP reserves
basis. Excluding legacy shut-ins and economic factors, the Company
replaced 94 percent of total 2018 production on a PDP
reserves basis.
- Reserve replacement was driven by strong well performance of
the 2018 drilling program in both the Cardium and Peace River areas. 1P reserve replacement in
the Cardium is approximately 150 percent and 2P reserve replacement
in both the Cardium and Peace
River areas is approximately 140 percent.
- Obsidian Energy's average three-year PDP decline is 15.8
percent resulting in a reserve life index ("RLI") of
approximately 8, 10 and 13 years on a PDP,1P and 2P basis
respectively.
- Through the disposition of natural gas weighted production and
shutting in high cost gas weighted legacy production in 2018, our
2P liquids weighting increased by two percent, to 69 percent total
liquids and our PDP liquids weighting increased by three percent,
to 67 percent total liquids.
- Obsidian Energy added 16 net undeveloped locations to its
primary Cardium count. Our total undeveloped reserve book remains
conservative and highly achievable, with 175 total net locations
booked, including 126 net locations in the Cardium.
- 2P finding and development ("F&D") costs for our
operated development activity in 2018 were $13.40 per boe. 2P F&D costs, including
changes in future development capital, were $21.16 per boe.
- Despite $75 million of negative
pricing impacts, before-tax net present value discounted at 10
percent ("NPV10") for 2P reserves, is $1.7 billion at year-end 2018, based on Sproule's
commodity price forecast at December 31,
2018.
- NPV10 per share, adjusted for Net Debt, equates to
approximately $2.40, $1.60 & $1.25
per share for 2P, 1P and PDP, respectively.
Cardium Drilling Program Update
All 14 wells of the second half 2018 Cardium program have
been drilled and completed with 12 currently on production.
Well performance on average is exceeding the updated type-curves
presented at our Investor Day on November
15, 2018. The Company's focus on cost reduction has resulted
in an average well cost of $3.6
million on the first 14 wells, significantly below
forecasted cost estimates. The final two wells off the 5-18 pad
have been fractured, with one well setting a record for the
Company's longest Cardium well drilled to date at 5,290 meters of
measured depth with 38 fracture stages. These two wells will
be on production by mid-February.
Early rate performance of the wells is shown below. Aggregate
production from the program has averaged approximately 3,620
barrels of oil per day and 4,693 boe per day in the last 30
days.
Pad
|
Status
|
Deliverability
|
8-9 (3
wells)
|
On
production
|
Average IP30 per
well: 621 boepd (76% oil); IP60 per well: 477 boepd (71%
oil)
|
14-1 (2
wells)
|
On
production
|
Average IP30 per
well: 433 boepd (85% oil); IP60 per well: 338 boepd (84%
oil)
|
4-6 (3
wells)
|
On
production
|
Average IP30 per
well: 527 boepd (91% oil); IP60 per well: 563 boepd (84%
oil)
|
1-36 (2
wells)
|
On
production
|
Average IP30 per
well: 672 boepd (90% oil)
|
9-2 (2
wells)
|
On
production
|
Average IP10 per
well: 502 boepd (90% oil)
|
5-18 (2
wells)
|
Fracturing
complete
|
Production expected
mid-February
|
Marketing and Hedging Portfolio Update
In late December, the Company monetized the physical delivery
contract for 15,000 mmcf per day to Northern Border Ventura for
US$10.5 million or CAD$14 million. The decision to monetize the
contract was due to an expansion in the forward curve spread
between AECO and Northern Border Ventura gas pricing.
The recent downward swing in oil prices also allowed the Company
to restructure part of its existing hedge book by removing a 1,000
barrel a day WTI swap in the third quarter of 2019 for cash to
Obsidian Energy of approximately $500,000.
2019 Development and Revised Guidance
In early December, the Alberta Government announced a mandatory
curtailment program ("Curtailment") to relieve excess supply
of crude oil and bitumen in Western
Canada. Since the announcement, there has been a meaningful
contraction of Canadian differentials improving the outlook for
Western Canadian producers. Obsidian Energy is supportive of these
actions and views them as a near-term positive step for the energy
industry in Western Canada.
In light of the Curtailment, Obsidian Energy has elected to
defer a four-well pad with two Cardium wells and two Deep Basin
wells to the second half of 2019. The deferral will reduce first
half 2019 capital expenditures by approximately $20 million to $45
million. Our first half 2019 drilling program now consists
of five Willesden Green Cardium wells which is underway with
production expected near the end of March.
Based on preliminary estimates, the Company expects first
quarter 2019 light and heavy oil production to be approximately
15,750 – 16,250 barrels per day net to Obsidian Energy, which
reflects the curtailment requirements for the quarter. Total
production for the first quarter of 2019, including natural gas
liquids and natural gas is expected to be approximately 27,000 –
27,500 boe per day net to Obsidian Energy. Currently, the Company
has approximately 2,200 boe per day behind pipe and if the
Curtailment requirements were to be lifted or reduced, we would
bring those volumes on production.
The full year 2019 optimization budget has been reduced by
$3 million in favour of adding one
Willesden Green Cardium well to the second half 2019 drilling
program for a total of 16 Willesden Green Cardium wells and
two Deep Basin wells with no changes to our full year capital
estimate. The Company continues to evaluate its capital allocation
decisions on an ongoing basis. At this time, we view the servicing
of our credit facility and the Cardium development in Willesden
Green as the most prudent use of investment dollars in our
portfolio.
Due to mandated Curtailments and the decision to shift capital
into the second half of 2019, Obsidian Energy is revising its
guidance for full year production and growth rates. With reduced
volumes, there will be follow-on affects to operating and general
& administrative cost per boe. Obsidian Energy's guidance
assumes the Curtailment will remain throughout 2019 but continues
to ease over the course of the year.
Production and Cost Guidance:
Metric
|
Previous 2019
Guidance Range
|
Updated 2019
Guidance Range
|
Production
|
28,000 to 29,000 boe
per day
|
26,750 to 27,750 boe
per day
|
Capital Expenditures
including
Decommissioning Expenditures
|
$120 MM
|
No change
|
Production Growth
Rate (1)
|
3%-6%
|
Flat
|
Operating
Costs
|
$13.00 - $13.50 per
boe
|
$14.00 - $14.50 per
boe
|
General &
Administrative
|
$1.75 - $2.25 per
boe
|
$2.00 - $2.50 per
boe
|
(1) Relative to
projected full year 2018 production (using midpoint of guidance),
adjusted for shut in volumes, of
27,250 boe per day
|
Capital Program Details:
Capital
Category
|
# of
Wells
|
Net
Capital
|
Cardium
|
16
Producers
|
$74
million
|
Deep Basin
|
2
Producers
|
$7 million
|
Non-Operated Primary
Drilling
|
2.5 net
Producers
|
$6 million
|
Existing Wellbore
Optimization
|
>25
Projects
|
$5 million
|
Maintenance &
Corporate
|
|
$16
million
|
Capital
Expenditures
|
|
$108
million
|
Decommissioning
Expenditures
|
|
$12
million
|
Total
|
|
$120
million
|
2018 Year-End Reserves Tables
In 2018, we engaged Sproule, an independent, qualified
engineering firm, to evaluate 100 percent of our 1P and 2P
reserves. Sproule conducted an independent reserves evaluation of
Obsidian Energy's reserves effective December 31, 2018. This evaluation was prepared
in accordance with definitions, standards, and procedures set out
in Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGEH") and
National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas
Activities ("NI 51-101"). The Sproule reserves evaluation
was based on Sproule's December 31,
2018 forecast prices and costs. Reserves included below are
Company gross reserves which are the Company's total working
interest reserves before the deduction of any royalties and
excluding any royalty interests payable to the Company. The numbers
in the tables below may not add due to rounding.
Summary of Reserves
As at December 31,
2018
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reserve
|
Light &
Medium
Crude Oil
|
Heavy
Crude Oil
& Bitumen
|
Natural Gas
Liquids
|
Conventional
Natural Gas
|
Barrel of Oil
Equivalent
|
Estimates
Category
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(bcf)
|
(mmboe)
|
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed
producing
|
33
|
6
|
6
|
131
|
66
|
Developed
non-producing
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
Undeveloped
|
14
|
1
|
2
|
41
|
24
|
Total
Proved
|
47
|
7
|
8
|
176
|
92
|
Total
Probable
|
17
|
4
|
3
|
57
|
33
|
Total Proved plus
Probable
|
64
|
11
|
11
|
233
|
125
|
Reserves Reconciliation – Proved
|
Light &
Medium
Crude Oil
|
Heavy
Crude Oil
& Bitumen
|
Natural Gas
Liquids
|
Conventional
Natural Gas
|
Barrel of Oil
Equivalent
|
Reconciliation
Category
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(bcf)
|
(mmboe)
|
Total
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31,
2017
|
47
|
8
|
8
|
194
|
96
|
Extensions
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
13
|
5
|
Infill
Drilling
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
Improved
Recovery
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Technical
Revisions
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
19
|
6
|
Discoveries
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Acquisitions
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Dispositions
|
(1)
|
0
|
(0)
|
(23)
|
(5)
|
Economic
Factors
|
0
|
0
|
(0)
|
(7)
|
(1)
|
Production
|
(4)
|
(2)
|
(1)
|
(22)
|
(11)
|
December 31,
2018
|
47
|
7
|
8
|
176
|
92
|
Reserves Reconciliation – Proved Plus Probable
|
Light &
Medium
Crude Oil
|
Heavy
Crude Oil
& Bitumen
|
Natural Gas
Liquids
|
Conventional
Natural Gas
|
Barrel of Oil
Equivalent
|
Reconciliation
Category
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(mmbbl)
|
(bcf)
|
(mmboe)
|
Total Proved Plus
Probable
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31,
2017
|
66
|
12
|
10
|
258
|
131
|
Extensions
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
18
|
8
|
Infill
Drilling
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
Improved
Recovery
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Technical
Revisions
|
(1)
|
0
|
1
|
14
|
2
|
Discoveries
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Acquisitions
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Dispositions
|
(1)
|
0
|
(0)
|
(31)
|
(7)
|
Economic
Factors
|
0
|
0
|
(0)
|
(8)
|
(1)
|
Production
|
(4)
|
(2)
|
(1)
|
(22)
|
(11)
|
December 31,
2018
|
64
|
11
|
11
|
233
|
125
|
Summary of Before Tax Net Present Values
|
|
|
|
|
|
As at December 31,
2018
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Present
Value
|
Discount
Rate
|
$
millions
|
Undiscounted
|
5
Percent
|
10
Percent
|
15
Percent
|
20
Percent
|
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed
producing
|
2,140
|
1,474
|
1,128
|
921
|
784
|
Developed
non-producing
|
43
|
33
|
26
|
22
|
19
|
Undeveloped
|
592
|
285
|
140
|
63
|
17
|
Total
Proved
|
2,774
|
1,792
|
1,294
|
1,006
|
820
|
Total
Probable
|
1,417
|
674
|
408
|
282
|
212
|
Total Proved plus
Probable
|
4,191
|
2,466
|
1,702
|
1,288
|
1,032
|
Future Development Capital
As at December 31,
2018
|
|
|
Future Development
Capital
|
|
|
$
millions
|
Total
Proved
|
Total Proved
Plus Probable
|
2019
|
112
|
117
|
2020
|
113
|
131
|
2021
|
118
|
155
|
2022
|
127
|
154
|
2023
|
42
|
61
|
2024 and
subsequent
|
0
|
0
|
Total,
Undiscounted
|
511
|
618
|
Total, Discounted
@ 10%
|
416
|
498
|
Summary of Pricing and Inflation Rate Assumptions
|
|
Canadian
Light
|
Natural
Gas
|
|
|
WTI
|
Sweet
Crude
|
AECO-C
|
Exchange
|
As at December 31,
2018 (1)
|
Cushing,
Oklahoma
|
40°
API
|
Spot
|
Rate
|
Sproule
Forecast
|
($US/bbl)
|
($Cdn/bbl)
|
($Cdn/MMbtu)
|
($US/$Cdn)
|
Year
|
2018
|
2017
|
2018
|
2017
|
2018
|
2017
|
2018
|
2017
|
Forecast
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2019
|
63.00
|
65.00
|
75.27
|
74.51
|
1.95
|
3.11
|
0.77
|
0.82
|
2020
|
67.00
|
70.00
|
77.89
|
78.24
|
2.44
|
3.65
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2021
|
70.00
|
73.00
|
82.25
|
82.45
|
3.00
|
3.80
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2022
|
71.40
|
74.46
|
84.79
|
84.10
|
3.21
|
3.95
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2023
|
72.83
|
75.95
|
87.39
|
85.78
|
3.30
|
4.05
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2024
|
74.28
|
77.47
|
89.14
|
87.49
|
3.39
|
4.15
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2025
|
75.77
|
79.02
|
90.92
|
89.24
|
3.49
|
4.25
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2026
|
77.29
|
80.60
|
92.74
|
91.03
|
3.58
|
4.36
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2027
|
78.83
|
82.21
|
94.60
|
92.85
|
3.68
|
4.46
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2028
|
80.41
|
83.85
|
96.49
|
94.71
|
3.78
|
4.57
|
0.80
|
0.85
|
2029
|
82.02
|
|
98.42
|
|
3.88
|
|
0.80
|
|
(1) Prices
Escalate at two percent after 2029, with the exception of foreign
exchange which stays flat
|
All figures contained in this release are in Canadian dollars
unless otherwise noted.
The financial and operating information in this press release is
based on estimates and is unaudited. Some of the terms below do not
have standardized meanings. Further detail can be found in the "Oil
and Gas Advisory" section contained in this release. Additional
reserve information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in
our Annual Information Form which will be filed on SEDAR, EDGAR,
and posted to our website in March. All numbers are shown prior to
the impact of 2019 disposition activity unless otherwise noted.
Oil and Gas Advisory
This press release contains a number of oil and gas metrics,
including "FDC", "F&D costs", and "RLI" which do not have
standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and
therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures
used by other companies. Such metrics have been included herein to
provide readers with additional measures to evaluate the Company's
performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of
the future performance of the Company and future performance may
not compare to the performance in previous periods. FDC is the sum
of all booked capital. F&D costs are the sum of exploration and
development costs incurred in the period, plus the change in
estimated FDC for the reserves category, all divided by the change
in reserves during the period. F&D costs exclude the impact of
acquisitions and divestitures. NPV per share, adjusted for debt, is
synonymous for NAV, and is based on the present value of future net
revenues discounted at 10% before tax, adjusted for unaudited net
debt as at December 31, 2018. The NPV
per share is divided by the number of Obsidian Energy shares
outstanding as at December 31, 2018.
RLI is calculated as total Company gross reserves divided by
Sproule's forecasted 2019 production for the associated reserve
category. Under NI 51-101, proved reserves estimates are defined as
having a high degree of certainty to be recoverable with a targeted
90 percent probability in aggregate that actual reserves recovered
over time will equal or exceed proved reserve estimates. For proved
plus probable reserves under NI 51-101, the targeted probability is
an equal (50 percent) likelihood that the actual reserves to be
recovered will be greater or less than the proved plus probable
reserve estimate. The reserve estimates set forth above are
estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated
reserves will be recovered. Actual reserves may be greater than or
less than the estimates provided herein.
Non-GAAP
Certain financial measures including net debt included in this
press release do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS
and therefore are considered non-GAAP measures; accordingly, they
may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other
issuers. Net Debt includes long-term debt and includes the effects
of working capital and all cash held on hand.
Abbreviations Contained in the Press Release
Oil and Natural
Gas Liquids
|
Natural
Gas
|
bbl
|
barrel or
barrels
|
GJ
|
gigajoule
|
bbl/d
|
barrels per
day
|
GJ/d
|
gigajoules per
day
|
mbbl
|
thousand
barrels
|
mcf
|
thousand cubic
feet
|
mmbbl
|
million
barrels
|
mmcf
|
million cubic
feet
|
NGLs
|
natural gas
liquids
|
bcf
|
billion cubic
feet
|
mmboe
|
million barrels of
oil equivalent
|
mcf/d
|
thousand cubic feet
per day
|
mboe
|
thousand barrels of
oil equivalent
|
mmcf/d
|
million cubic feet
per day
|
boe/d
|
barrels of oil
equivalent per day
|
m3
|
cubic
metres
|
|
|
mmbtu
|
million British
thermal units
|
Other
|
|
AECO
|
the Alberta benchmark
price for natural gas.
|
BOE or
boe
|
barrel of oil
equivalent, using the conversion factor of 6 mcf of natural gas
being equivalent to one barrel of oil.
|
WTI
|
West Texas
Intermediate, the reference price paid in United States dollars at
Cushing, Oklahoma for crude oil of standard grade.
|
API
|
American Petroleum
Institute.
|
°API
|
the measure of the
density or gravity of liquid petroleum products derived from a
specific gravity.
|
MM$
|
million
dollars.
|
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this press release constitute
forward-looking statements or information (collectively
"forward-looking statements"). Forward-looking statements are
typically identified by words such as "anticipate", "continue",
"estimate", "expect", "forecast", "budget", "may", "will",
"project", "could", "plan", "intend", "should", "believe",
"outlook", "objective", "aim", "potential", "target" and similar
words suggesting future events or future performance. In addition,
statements relating to "reserves" or "resources" are deemed to be
forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment,
based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves and
resources described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated
and can be profitably produced in the future. In particular, this
document contains forward-looking statements pertaining to, without
limitation, the following: that we are excited about the future
development opportunities, specifically in our Cardium assets,
which will allow us to create long term value for our shareholders;
expectations for when certain wells will come online; our
expectations for deferring certain wells, when they are expected to
come online, the impact those actions have on first half 2019
expenditures and drilling program and on production dates; our
expectation for first quarter 2019 light and heavy oil production,
and total production net to Obsidian Energy, which reflects that
curtailment requirements for the quarter; when we will bring
certain volumes on after the curtailment requirements are lifted;
that the Company continues to evaluate its capital allocation
decisions on an ongoing basis; the updated 2019 guidance for
production, capital expenditure including decommissioning
expenditures, production growth grate, operating and general and
administrative cost ranges; that additional reserve information, as
required under NI 51-101, will be included in our Annual
Information Form which will be filed on SEDAR, EDGAR and our
website in March ; and our expected RLIs, FDCs.
With respect to forward-looking statements contained in this
document, we have made assumptions regarding, among other things
that we do not dispose of any material producing properties; the
impact of Curtailment; our ability to execute our long-term plan as
described herein and in our other disclosure documents and the
impact that the successful execution of such plan will have on our
Company and our shareholders; that the current commodity price and
foreign exchange environment will continue or improve; future
capital expenditure levels; future crude oil, natural gas liquids
and natural gas prices and differentials between light, medium and
heavy oil prices and Canadian, WTI and world oil and natural gas
prices; future crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas
production levels; future exchange rates and interest rates; future
debt levels; our ability to execute our capital programs as planned
without significant adverse impacts from various factors beyond our
control, including weather, infrastructure access and delays in
obtaining regulatory approvals and third party consents; our
ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out
development activities and the costs thereof; our ability to market
our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers;
our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms, including our
ability to renew or replace our syndicated bank facility and our
ability to finance the repayment of our senior notes on maturity;
and our ability to add production and reserves through our
development and exploitation activities.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the
forward-looking statements contained in this document, and the
assumptions on which such forward-looking statements are made, are
reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will
prove to be correct. Readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on forward-looking statements included in this document,
as there can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or
expectations upon which the forward-looking statements are based
will occur. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks and uncertainties
that contribute to the possibility that the forward-looking
statements contained herein will not be correct, which may cause
our actual performance and financial results in future periods to
differ materially from any estimates or projections of future
performance or results expressed or implied by such forward-looking
statements. These risks and uncertainties include, among other
things: the possibility that we will not be able to continue to
successfully execute our long-term plan in part or in full, and the
possibility that some or all of the benefits that we anticipate
will accrue to our Company and our securityholders as a result of
the successful execution of such plans do not materialize; the
possibility that we are unable to execute some or all of our
ongoing asset disposition program on favourable terms or at all;
general economic and political conditions in Canada, the U.S. and globally, and in
particular, the effect that those conditions have on commodity
prices and our access to capital; industry conditions, including
fluctuations in the price of crude oil, natural gas liquids and
natural gas, price differentials for crude oil and natural gas
produced in Canada as compared to
other markets, and transportation restrictions, including pipeline
and railway capacity constraints; fluctuations in foreign exchange
or interest rates; unanticipated operating events or environmental
events that can reduce production or cause production to be shut-in
or delayed (including extreme cold during winter months, wild fires
and flooding); that due to Curtailment and second half capital
shift, that there will be follow-on affects to operating and
general & administrative cost per boe; and the other
factors described under "Risk Factors" in our Annual Information
Form and described in our public filings, available in Canada at www.sedar.com and in
the United States at www.sec.gov.
Readers are cautioned that this list of risk factors should not be
construed as exhaustive.
The forward-looking statements contained in this document speak
only as of the date of this document. Except as expressly required
by applicable securities laws, we do not undertake any obligation
to publicly update any forward-looking statements. The
forward-looking statements contained in this document are expressly
qualified by this cautionary statement.
Obsidian Energy shares are listed on both the Toronto Stock
Exchange and New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "OBE" and
"OBE.BC" respectively. All figures are in Canadian dollars unless
otherwise stated.
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SOURCE Obsidian Energy Ltd.