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2023 guidance
GSK
expects 2023 turnover to increase between 6 to 8 per cent, Adjusted
operating profit to increase between 10 to 12 per cent and Adjusted
earnings per share to increase between 12 to 15 per cent. This
guidance is provided at CER and excludes any contributions from
COVID-19 solutions.
Assumptions related to 2023 guidance
In
outlining the guidance for 2023, the Group has made certain
assumptions about the healthcare sector, the different markets in
which the Group operates and the delivery of revenues and financial
benefits from its current portfolio, pipeline and restructuring
programmes. Taking Q1 2023 performance and the latest expectations
for Q2 2023 into account, GSK now expects first half and second
half turnover growth to be broadly similar and for General
Medicines to be broadly flat to slightly down this year. GSK
expects Adjusted operating profit growth to be lower in the first
half of 2023 and higher in the second half, relative to full-year
expectations. Despite the recovery of healthcare systems, uncertain
economic conditions prevail across many markets in which GSK
operates and we continue to expect to see variability in
performance between quarters.
We
expect sales of Vaccines to increase mid-teens per cent, Specialty
Medicines to increase mid to high single-digit per cent, and sales
of General Medicines to be broadly flat to slightly
down.
These
planning assumptions as well as operating profit guidance and
dividend expectations assume no material interruptions to supply of
the Group’s products, no material mergers, acquisitions or
disposals, no material litigation or investigation costs for the
Company (save for those that are already recognised or for which
provisions have been made) and no change in the Group’s
shareholdings in ViiV Healthcare. The assumptions also assume no
material changes in the healthcare environment or unexpected
significant changes in pricing as a result of government or
competitor action. The 2023 guidance factors in all divestments and
product exits announced to date.
The
Group’s guidance assumes successful delivery of the
Group’s integration and restructuring plans. Material costs for investment in new product
launches and R&D have been factored into the expectations
given. Given the potential development options in the Group’s
pipeline, the outlook may be affected by additional data-driven
R&D investment decisions. The guidance is given on a constant
currency basis.
Assumptions and cautionary statement regarding forward-looking
statements
The
Group’s management believes that the assumptions outlined
above are reasonable, and that the guidance, outlooks, ambitions
and expectations described in this report are achievable based on
those assumptions. However, given the forward-looking nature of
these guidance, outlooks, ambitions and expectations, they are
subject to greater uncertainty, including potential material
impacts if the above assumptions are not realised, and other
material impacts related to foreign exchange fluctuations,
macro-economic activity, the impact of outbreaks, epidemics or
pandemics, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing challenges and
uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic for businesses and
governments around the world, changes in legislation, regulation,
government actions or intellectual property protection, product
development and approvals, actions by our competitors, and other
risks inherent to the industries in which we operate.
This
document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be,
“forward-looking statements”. Forward-looking
statements give the Group’s current expectations or forecasts
of future events. An investor can identify these statements by the
fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current
facts. They use words such as ‘anticipate’,
‘estimate’, ‘expect’, ‘intend’,
‘will’, ‘project’, ‘plan’,
‘believe’, ‘target’ and other words and
terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of
future operating or financial performance. In particular, these
include statements relating to future actions, prospective products
or product approvals, future performance or results of current and
anticipated products, sales efforts, expenses, the outcome of
contingencies such as legal proceedings, dividend payments and
financial results. Other than in accordance with its legal or
regulatory obligations (including under the Market Abuse
Regulation, the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and
Transparency Rules of the Financial Conduct Authority), the Group
undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The reader should, however, consult any additional disclosures that
the Group may make in any documents which it publishes and/or files
with the SEC. All readers, wherever located, should take note of
these disclosures. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that any
particular expectation will be met and investors are cautioned not
to place undue reliance on the forward-looking
statements.
All guidance, outlooks, ambitions and expectations should be read
together with the guidance, assumptions and cautionary statements
in this Q1 2023 earnings release and the 2022 Annual
Report.
Forward-looking
statements are subject to assumptions, inherent risks and
uncertainties, many of which relate to factors that are beyond the
Group’s control or precise estimate. The Group cautions
investors that a number of important factors, including those in
this document, could cause actual results to differ materially from
those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement. Such
factors include, but are not limited to, those discussed under Item
3.D ‘Risk Factors’ in the Group’s Annual Report
on Form 20-F for 2022 and any impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Any
forward looking statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak
only as of the date they are made and are based upon the knowledge
and information available to the Directors on the date of this
report.
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