TiVo's Loss Continues to Widen - Analyst Blog
November 23 2011 - 7:21AM
Zacks
TiVo Inc. (TIVO), a developer of advanced
television services including digital video recorders (DVR),
reported loss per share of 21 cents in the third quarter of 2012,
narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 23 cents.
However, the reported loss widened from the year-ago quarter’s loss
of 18 cents per share.
Revenue
Revenues increased 27.3% year over year to $64.8 million in the
third quarter and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $60.0
million. Revenues for the quarter were positively impacted by
Services and technology revenue, which jumped 25.4% to $51.8
million and was ahead of management’s guidance range of $49
million-$51 million. Moreover, hardware revenue also jumped 36.8%
from the year-ago quarter to $13.0 million.
Net subscription additions for the quarter were 117,000 compared
with a 112,000 subscription loss in the year-ago quarter. Moreover,
this was the first quarter in the last 4 years that the company
logged net additions of subscriptions.
Churn rate was a negative 1.7% in the quarter, which improved
slightly from a negative 2.0% posted in the comparable prior-year
quarter. Subscription acquisition costs (SAC) increased 66.2% year
over year.
Operating Performance
Gross profit increased 33.6% year over year to $31.0 million and
gross margin expanded 220 basis points (bps) to 47.8% in the
reported quarter, primarily due to higher revenues.
Operating expenses escalated 23.3% year over year to $54.5
million. Research & development (R&D) expense surged 33.8%
year over year to $27.3 million in the quarter. Moreover,
litigation expense was $8.2 million, which the company incurred for
the AT&T Inc (T) and Microsoft
Corp (MSFT) trials. Loss from operations grew 12.4% from
the year-ago quarter to $23.5 million.
Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $13.9 million, below management
guidance of a loss of $19 million to $17 million. However, the
adjusted EBITDA loss widened from the loss of $12.2 million in the
year-ago quarter.
TiVo reported third quarter 2012 net loss of $24.5 million
compared with a net loss of $20.6 million in the prior-year
quarter. There were no one-time items in the last quarter.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
TiVo exited the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and
short-term investments of $604.3 million versus $627.8 million in
the previous quarter. TiVo recognizes $11.0 million from
Dish Network Corp. (DISH) as licensing fees.
Cash flow from operations was $225.8 million in the quarter
compared with a negative $247.2 million in the previous
quarter.
Guidance
For the fourth quarter of 2012, TiVo expects service and
technology revenues in the range of $48 million to $50 million.
TiVo expects net loss in the range of ($31.0) million to ($33.0)
million and an adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of ($21.0) million
to ($23.0) million.
The company expects litigation expenses to be higher
sequentially as well as on a year-on-year basis in the fourth
quarter due to the AT&T and Microsoft trials. However, the
company expects the litigation expenses to be lower in the first
quarter and fiscal 2013. The company expects R&D expenses
to increase sequentially on the back of the on-going introductory
projects.
The company expects to benefit from the R&D efforts and
distribution deals that are being deployed to improve the top line
in fiscal 2013. Additionally, these improvements will be reflected
in the adjusted EBITDA results for fiscal year 2013, according to
management.
Our Take
The company reported better-than-expected results on the back of
strong revenue growth and has been witnessing subscription growth
from partners such as RCN, Suddenlink and Virgin Media
Inc. (VMED). Additionally, partners such as Charter,
DIRECTV Inc. (DTV), and ONO would likely provide
further momentum. Moreover, DIRECTV intends to launch its TiVo
offering in select markets in December, which will drive the
momentum in forthcoming quarters.
We continue to believe that new partnerships with leading
companies combined with new customer wins, product launches and
international expansion will drive top-line growth.
However, the company continues to see patent litigation issues
against Microsoft Corp. and AT&T Inc. Going forward, these
litigation issues will remain an overhang. Moreover, increasing
competition from cable and satellite providers will act as a
headwind going forward.
We have a Neutral recommendation on TiVo over the long term
(6-12 months). Currently, TiVo has a Zacks #3 Rank, which implies a
Hold rating in the short-term (1-3 months).
DISH NETWORK CP (DISH): Free Stock Analysis Report
DIRECTV (DTV): Free Stock Analysis Report
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT): Free Stock Analysis Report
AT&T INC (T): Free Stock Analysis Report
TIVO INC (TIVO): Free Stock Analysis Report
VIRGIN MEDIA (VMED): Free Stock Analysis Report
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