LAS VEGAS, Oct. 10, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell's
(NASDAQ: HON) 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook
forecasts up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth
$238 billion from 2022 to 2031, up 1%
in deliveries from the same 10-year forecast a year ago. In 2021,
surveyed business jet operators reported a sharp increase in used
jet purchase plans, 12% above last year's report, equivalent to 800
additional used business aircraft. Business aircraft manufacturers
also announced a strong increase in jet orders, indicating that the
industry has almost completely shaken off the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
![2021 Business Aviation Forecast Infographic - Honeywell Aerospace 2021 Business Aviation Forecast Infographic - Honeywell Aerospace](https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1656531/2021_Business_Aviation_Forecast___Honeywell_Aerospace.pdf?p=pdfthumbnail)
"The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than
6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an
already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new
jets," said Heath Patrick,
president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. "Our latest
operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth,
as more than 65% of respondents anticipate increased business jet
usage in 2022. Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the
pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic
levels. The overall health of the business jet market is strong,
and growth is expected to continue."
Key findings in the 2021 Honeywell Global Business Aviation
Outlook include:
- Purchase plans for used jets show an increase in this year's
survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 28% of their fleet is
expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five
years, up 3 percentage points compared with survey results from
2020. Business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up 10%
from 2021 in terms of units billed.
- The longer-range forecast through 2031 projects a 3% average
annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide
long-term economic growth.
- Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down 2
percentage points compared with last year's survey. This can be
attributed to uncertainty around the COVID-19 Delta variant at the
time of the survey. The decrease is driven by fewer replacements in
the fifth year; however, fleet additions grew by 1 percentage
point.
- The sharp increase in demand for used jets, coupled with a
lower-than-ever inventory of used aircraft available for sale, will
inevitably drive additional demand for new-build business jets.
Among those with purchase plans of new business jets over the next
five years, 29% of purchases are expected to occur in the next two
years. This is just 1 percentage point lower than last year's
survey.
- Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about
14% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or
additions to their current fleet.
- Larger-cabin, heavy aircraft classes are expected to account
for more than 72% of all expenditures of new business jets in the
next five years.
Minimal ongoing COVID-19 impact in 2021:
- 9 of 10 operators in the survey said their new or used jet
buying plans have not been postponed by the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic. Nearly 100% of 2021 respondents said that they had not
cancelled and do not plan to cancel a delivery on a new
aircraft.
- Year to date, business aviation usage trends point to a nearly
50% increase in flight hours in 2021 versus 2020, roughly 5% above
2019 (pre-COVID).
- 65% of respondents globally expect to operate their business
jets more frequently in 2022 versus 2021.
- 2021 survey respondents are not signaling sales of late-model
aircraft due to COVID-19. Specifically, only 4% of all respondents
in the survey are planning to sell one or more aircraft without
replacement in the next five years compared with 10% in last year's
survey.
- Very few respondents (6%) reported that conditions for their
flight departments had worsened in 2021.
Breakdown by
Region
North America –
Compared with last year, five-year new aircraft
acquisition plans in North America are down 3 percentage points as
operators' cool expectations for the fifth year in the survey
period. This is likely driven by the uncertainty caused by the
Delta variant among smaller jet operators. Used aircraft purchase
plans are up 3 percentage points.
- New jet purchase plans in North
America are down 3% in this year's survey compared with last
year. Over the next five years, at least 13% of the fleet is
expected to be replaced or supplemented with a new jet
purchase.
- About 35% of operators responding to the survey plan to
schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the
five-year horizon. This is 3 percentage points higher than in last
year's survey, and above the worldwide average of 29%.
- Purchase plans for used jets are up 4 percentage points when
compared with last year's survey and above historical
averages.
- An estimated 63% of worldwide demand for new jets will come
from North American operators over the next five years, down just 1
percentage point compared with last year's survey.
Europe –
European operators' new aircraft purchase plans are down 5
percentage points year over year as the Delta variant forced
governments to restrict travel across borders, creating
uncertainty.
- Europe's purchase expectations
decreased this year to roughly 19% of the global fleet, down 5
percentage points compared with last year's results. Europe's purchase expectations had been high
in the past few years as operators refreshed an aging fleet.
- About 23% of operators plan to schedule their new purchases
within the next two years, in line with previous year's results and
below the worldwide average of 29%.
- Aircraft replacement and expansion plans for used aircraft in
Europe are the highest globally
and in recent history, equivalent to 34% of their fleet, up 6
percentage points versus 2020.
- Europe's share of global
demand over the next five years is estimated to be 16%, 2
percentage points lower than last year.
Latin America –
Purchase plans recovered to 2019 levels, up 6 percentage points
versus last year.
- In Latin America, 21% of the
fleet is expected to be replaced or supplemented with new jet
purchases over the next five years, up from 15% in last year's
survey.
- About 29% of this region's projected purchases are planned
between 2021 and 2023, on par with the worldwide average.
- Latin America will represent
5% of the total projected business jet demand over the next five
years versus 3% in last year's survey. The increase is likely due
to a more positive economic outlook following last year's deep
pessimism in the region.
Asia Pacific
– Despite ongoing geopolitical and commercial
tensions, purchase plans are up.
- Asia Pacific operators report
plans to replace at least 15% of their jet fleets over the next
five years with new jet purchases, up from 14% in 2020's survey.
APAC operators also report fleet expansion intentions for the first
time in three years, equating to 0.3% of the current fleet.
- Based on the expressed level of purchase plans, Asia Pacific will represent a 12% share of
global new jet demand over the next five years.
- About 20% of respondents in Asia
Pacific plan to schedule their new purchases within the
first two years of the five-year horizon, compared with 30% a year
ago.
Middle East and Africa (MEA) – The survey marked a
five-year low when it comes to purchase plans in
2021.
- 9% of respondents said they will replace or add to their fleet
with a new jet purchase, down from 16% last year.
- About 13% of operators responding to the survey plan to
schedule their new purchase within the first two years of the
five-year horizon, down from 46% a year ago.
- The share of projected five-year global demand attributed to
MEA remains at 4%, in line with the historical range of 4% to
6%.
Used Jets
- Plans to acquire used jets in the next five years increased by
about 4 percentage points from last year's survey. 29% of used
business jets will trade hands over the next five years, compared
with a five-year projection of 25% in 2020.
Making an Impact on Business Decisions
The Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator
concerns and also identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell
uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped
identify opportunities for investments in flight-efficiency
upgrades, expanded propulsion offerings, innovative safety
products, services, upgrades, and enhanced aircraft connectivity
offerings. The survey also informs Honeywell's business pursuit
strategy and helps position the company consistently on high-value
platforms in growth sectors.
Methodology
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources,
including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original
equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared
with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry
leaders. Honeywell also utilizes information gathered from
interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with over 1,522
nonfractional business jet operators worldwide. The survey sample
is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography,
operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach
provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments,
preferences and concerns, and provides considerable insight into
product development needs and opportunities
About Honeywell
Honeywell Aerospace products and services are found on virtually
every commercial, defense and space aircraft. The Aerospace
business unit builds aircraft engines, cockpit and cabin
electronics, wireless connectivity systems, mechanical components
and more. Its hardware and software solutions create more
fuel-efficient aircraft, more direct and on-time flights and safer
skies and airports. For more information, visit
www.honeywell.com or follow us at @Honeywell_Aero.
Honeywell (www.honeywell.com) is a Fortune 100 technology
company that delivers industry specific solutions that include
aerospace products and services; control technologies for buildings
and industry; and performance materials globally. Our technologies
help everything from aircraft, buildings, manufacturing plants,
supply chains, and workers become more connected to make our world
smarter, safer, and more sustainable. For more news and information
on Honeywell, please visit www.honeywell.com/newsroom.
This release contains certain statements that may be deemed
"forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than
statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or
developments that we or our management intends, expects, projects,
believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are
forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon certain
assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of
their experience and their perception of historical trends, current
economic and industry conditions, expected future developments and
other factors they believe to be appropriate. The forward-looking
statements included in this release are also subject to a number of
material risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to
economic, competitive, governmental, and technological factors
affecting our operations, markets, products, services and prices.
Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future
performance, and actual results, developments and business
decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking
statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that
affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contacts:
Media
Adam Kress
(602) 760-6252
adam.kress@honeywell.com
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/honeywell-forecast-shows-quick-rebound-for-business-aviation-as-flight-hours-purchase-plans-grow-301396562.html
SOURCE Honeywell