- Filing of certain prospectuses and communications in connection with business combination transactions (425)
November 03 2009 - 11:03AM
Edgar (US Regulatory)
FILED BY
PEET’S COFFEE & TEA, INC.
PURSUANT
TO RULE 425 UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933
AND DEEMED
FILED PURSUANT TO RULE 14d-2
UNDER THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
SUBJECT
COMPANY: DIEDRICH COFFEE, INC.
COMMISSION FILE NO.
000-
21203
Peet's
Coffee & Tea, Inc.
Peet's
Coffee & Tea Announces
Definitive
Agreement to Acquire Diedrich Coffee
Operator:
|
Good
day, everyone and welcome to the Peet's Coffee & Tea Conference. As a
reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time I'd like to turn
the call over to Mr. Tom Cawley, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead,
sir.
|
Tom:
|
Thanks,
Operator. I want to thank everyone on the call for joining us on such
short notice to discuss the announcement we made earlier this
afternoon.
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|
As
we begin, I need to inform you that the information being discussed on
this conference call by both companies will include forward-looking
statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements
about the planned Diedrich's acquisition and our financial projections.
Actual results may differ materially from those projected in these
forward-looking statements and Peet's and Diedrich's can give no assurance
to the effect of the statements and we assume no obligation to update
them.
|
|
For
additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual
results to differ materially from those in our forward-looking statements,
please refer to the filings that both companies will be making with the
SEC in the weeks ahead concerning this proposed transaction as well as the
section entitled Risk Factors in Peet's Annual Report on Form 10K for the
year ending December 28, 2008 filed with the SEC on March 13
th
of this year and Diedrich's Form 10K for the year ended June 24, 2009
filed with the SEC on September 29
th
of this year. Peet's 10K is also available on Peet's website and
Diedrich's 10K is also available on Diedrich's
website.
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|
The
subject we will be discussing on this call will be addressed in further
detail in a tender offer statement and joint proxy statement and
prospectus to be filed with the SEC. We urge investors to read it when it
becomes available and it will contain important information. You will be
able to view copies of these documents on both companies' websites as well
as the SEC website as they become
available.
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|
Joining
me here today are Pat O'Dea, our President and Chief Executive Officer, as
well as Paul Heeschen, Chairman of the Board of Diedrich's. With that, now
let me turn it over to Pat.
|
Pat:
|
Thanks,
Tom. This afternoon we announced that we have signed a definitive
agreement to purchase the Diedrich Coffee Company. I'd like to take a few
minutes to share the rationale for this acquisition within the context of
our vision for the company and our growth strategy. I'll then ask Paul
Heeschen to share a few remarks before Tom Cawley shares some specifics
around the transaction and financial implications looking
forward.
|
|
As
I start off, much of what I will share will sound familiar to many of you.
However, I want to make sure that those who may not follow Peet's or
Diedrich as closely also understand the compelling strategic story
here.
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|
As
many of you know, Peet's the coffee, the brand and the company occupies a
distinguished position within specialty coffee. The company's founder,
Alfred Peet, started the company from his corner store in Berkeley during
the '60s and he is widely regarded both domestically and internationally
as the grandfather of specialty coffee in the US. The company was built on
a set of values that placed the pursuit of superior distinctive quality
coffee above all else. These values created a deeply embedded culture of
quality within our company that defines everything we do from the quality
of the coffee we buy to our proprietary artisan roasting style to the
extraordinary steps we take to ensure superior freshness and has
distinguished the Peet's brand as the premier quality specialty coffee
brand in the United States today.
|
|
Over
the past seven years guided by these values and our culture, we set out to
build the infrastructure that would allow us to expand the Peet's brand
well beyond the four walls of our West Coast retail store base and into
the homes of consumers nationwide without compromising an inch on the
distinctive quality and freshness of our coffee. We built a
state-of-the-art artisanal roasting facility on San Francisco Bay, the
only roast-to-order coffee facility of its kind, to ensure superior
freshness and consistent with our values the first and only gold leaf(?)
certified roasting facility in the world. We built a national direct store
delivery selling and merchandising system to service grocery stores, the
only DSD system in the industry to ensure superior fresh coffee from the
roaster to the shelf, superior in-store merchandising capability and to
allow our 250-plus direct store delivery sales representatives to
personally introduce customers to this extraordinary brand right there in
the store. We built a management team with the experience to realize the
much larger vision we have for the business. And just recently we
completed the implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system
or ERP, which is the backbone of an IT system to enable us to execute at a
much larger scale.
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|
First
and foremost, these investments have enabled us to expand the Peet's brand
nationally into the fast growing at home coffee market through grocery
stores without compromising our superior quality and freshness standards
by leveraging our DSD competitive advantage. As a result, our consumer
packaged coffee business, led by the DSD grocery system, has grown at a 42
percent compounded annual growth rate over the last seven years,
consistently growing share against much larger entrenched competitors and
driving our specialty reported segment to about 70 percent of the
company's profits.
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|
As
we move forward, the Peet's brand will continue to be a major growth
driver and it is our intention to make Peet's the number one share
specialty coffee brand in grocery by remaining committed to the brand's
superior quality and freshness standards wherever it is sold. This
foundation that we established for the Peet's brand, our coffee expertise,
deeply rooted culture of quality and unique infrastructure specifically
designed to expand it, is now the leverage point for pursuing an even
broader vision that we had established for the company: To become the gold
standard specialty coffee and tea company in the US with the leading
premium quality, premium priced brands in every meaningful consumer
segment.
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|
To
this end, in July of this year we announced our intention to market a line
of premium quality, premium priced Godiva brand coffees in the medium
roast and flavored specialty coffee segment. And last week on our
quarterly conference call, we indicated that Godiva coffees would be in
4,000 stores this holiday seasons, growing to over 7,000 stores through
our existing DSD system by the first half of
2010.
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|
When
you put together these two growth initiatives, establishing the Peet's
brand as the leading premium quality brand in the dark roast segment, with
Godiva becoming the leading premium quality brand in the medium roast and
flavored segment and leveraging our past infrastructure investments to
drive them, you can see our vision and strategy coming together. And, as
we indicated in our quarterly call a week ago, these are just two of a
number of strategic growth initiatives we have in various stages of
development to leverage the unique infrastructure we've built to realize
our vision and build shareholder
value.
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|
One
of these additional strategic growth initiatives is our announcement today
that we have entered into a definitive agreement to purchase the Diedrich
Coffee Company. For those of you who may not be familiar, Diedrich Coffee
is on track to be about a $90 to $95 million specialty coffee business in
their current fiscal year ending in June, 2010 and they've been growing in
the 50 to 60 percent range over the last couple of years. Over 90 percent
of their business is producing and selling single serve K-cups through
wholesale and online channels.
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|
With
Diedrich, we will enter the fast growing K-cup market with a portfolio of
coffee brands including Diedrich's Coffee People and the Gloria Jean's
brand which are positioned in segments of the at-home specialty coffee
market where Peet's does not currently compete. In addition, Diedrich has
a roasting and packaging facility capable of producing unflavored and
flavored coffees with extensive current and future K-cup production
capacity. We will leverage the infrastructure we've built and our DSD
system in particular against Diedrich's complementary brands, product
profiles and K-cup single serve business to drive very significant
profitable growth in these new segments of the specialty coffee category
where we don't compete today.
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|
This
combination of Peet's and Diedrich's is a significant win for everybody.
Peet's shareholders will participate in the significant value created by
leveraging the infrastructure we've built to expand our consumer package
business through three major growth initiatives: The Peet's brand, the
Godiva flavored brand and the now complementary Diedrich products and
single cup business. The Diedrich acquisition gives us a running start
entry into the fast-growing single cup market via K-cups, given Diedrich's
50-plus percent current top line growth rate and available production
capacity. With our infrastructure and assets, our management team,
roasting capacity, DSD sales and marketing system and distinguished coffee
expertise, we believe we will significantly accelerate the top and bottom
line growth of Diedrich's existing K-cup business and then accelerate this
growth even further with the distinctive quality of Peet's brand coffee
later.
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The
big picture is that this acquisition will take us from about $330 to $340
million in 2010 sales to the $440 to $460 million range and from there we
would anticipate growing the top line over the next several years in the
30 percent range. Given we've already made the major infrastructure
investments to support this kind of growth, the only significant new
capital required will be packaging lines. As a result, after some initial
dilutive EPS impact during the year one transition, we'd expect EPS in
2011 to settle in the $2.00 to $2.20 range and grow at a strong rate from
there. Tom will take you through the financials a little later. But
suffice it to say, the combined companies' growth profile and earnings
outlook is impressive.
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|
This
is also a win for Diedrich's shareholders. At $26 per share, we believe
Diedrich's holders receive a full and fair price. In addition, through the
Peet's stock component, Diedrich's holders will have the opportunity to
participate in the combined companies'
growth.
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|
Our
acquisition of Diedrich will also have a significant positive impact on
the already fast-growing but still early adopter stage Keurig and K-cup
single cup brewing platform. Peet's will bring substantial additional
strength toward the goal of significantly accelerating Keurig Brewer's
System household penetration incremental to what could otherwise be
achieved. Our distinguished quality premium priced coffee, iconic brand
and leadership position in the Western US are complementary to current
K-cup offerings and we think will drive strong incremental household
adoption, particularly in the Western US where brewer penetration is less
well developed.
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|
Before
I ask Tom to give you more details on the transaction structure and the
financial outlook, I'd like to ask Paul Heeschen, Chairman of the Board of
Diedrich, to share a few comments.
Paul?
|
Paul:
|
Thank
you, Pat. I will keep this short as I think your comments on the strategic
logic of combining these two great coffee companies mirrored the way we
were thinking about this at
Diedrich's.
|
|
As
we have worked over the months with Pat and his team to bring this
transaction to fruition, it has become apparent to me just how valuable
combining these two companies will be for all constituents. In Peet's, we
have found a complementary partner that accomplished things for our
stockholders, employees, customers and business partners beyond what we
could do on a standalone basis.
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Upon
closing, this transaction will create immediate value for our stockholders
with a 28 percent premium to today's closing price. But it will also allow
means for Diedrich's stockholders to participate in the future growth of
the combined company. Customers will benefit from Peet's ability to
deliver our brands in the segments of the market where we currently do not
participate. And the combined company will accelerate the adoption of the
K-cup single serve system as a result of Peet's strong brand,
infrastructure and DSD systems in groceries and our brands in the Peet's
system.
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Like
Pat, we at Diedrich see this combination as a positive for everyone
involved and we look forward to continuing to work with the Peet's team to
bring this transaction to a close before the end of the year.
Pat?
|
Pat:
|
Thanks,
Paul. We're excited to move forward too, as you know. Now I'd like to turn
it over to Tom to discuss the transaction and what it means for the
company financially.
|
Tom:
|
I
agree with Pat and Paul's assessment of this transaction. It is a
significant win for all involved. Without the Diedrich's acquisition,
Peet's has a great future as we laid out just last week in our quarterly
conference call. We have exciting growth opportunities and we are on track
for growing our profits in the 20 to 25 percent range next year and for
years to come.
|
|
With
Diedrich's we're adding very complementary business, growing 50 to 60
percent per year in the high growth single serve K-cup segment where we
can leverage the brands and infrastructure we've already built to
accelerate profitable growth. With a growth catalyst like this layered
into our infrastructure, the financial model output is pretty
impressive.
|
|
Like
Pat said, in a broad sense this will take our company from the $330 to
$340 million of sales range that we guided to for 2010 to somewhere in the
$440 to $460 million range with a CAGR beyond 2010, a compounded annual
growth rate of our sales beyond 2010 in the 20 to 30 percent range for
several years. And since most of the infrastructure to support and drive
this growth is already in place, we expect our EPS after some initial
dilution in 2010 to be in the $2.00 to $2.20 range in 2011 and grow
strongly from there.
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|
In
a minute I'll take you through the financial outlook with the assistance
of the chart in the webcast but I think you can see the bigger picture
outlook here. First, however, let me summarize the transaction
details.
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Upon
completion, the transaction will provide Diedrich shareholders with the
near-term liquidity through a cash component as well as the opportunity of
continued ownership of the combined company through a stock component.
This acquisition is structured as a two-step transaction consisting of an
exchange offer for all the outstanding shares of Diedrich common stock,
followed by a merger of the Peet's subsidiary into Diedrich -- of Peet's
subsidiary into Diedrich.
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For
each share of Diedrich common stock tendered and accepted in the exchange
offer or exchanged in the merger, Peet's will pay a combination of $17.33
in cash and a fraction of a share of Peet's common stock having a value of
approximately $8.67. The actual fraction will be based on the trading
price of Peet's common stock over a designated period prior to the
completion of the exchange offer. But such fraction will not exceed 0.315
of a share of Peet's common stock. In addition to providing an opportunity
in the upside of Peet's, we believe this mix of stock and cash will
provide us with an ongoing capital structure that will allow us to invest
the capital required for this growth. As a result, we expect to issue
approximately two million shares that will increase our shares outstanding
by approximately 15 percent. Of course, this is dependent on the final
calculation.
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To
finance the cash portion, we will use cash from our combined companies of
about $28 million and we have secured $140 million in bank financing for
the remaining needs. The offer is fully funded with committed financing.
We will be suspending any stock purchase programs since paying off debt
will be more accretive to future earnings and therefore offers a better
return for our shareholders.
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This
deal is structured as a tender offer. In order to be successful we need to
successfully tender at least 51 percent of the shares outstanding during
the tender period which is expected to be in December in order to be
successful. Given the premium that this price represents over the current
trading price and the full support of the Board of Diedrich's for the
offer, we do not expect that there will be an issue achieving this
requirement.
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Now
I'd like to take you through the financial expectations for the combined
company over the next several years. I will speak in broad ranges because
these are general guidelines not specific guidance. In the course of the
next week we'll be filing an S4 with more detail. There are several things
still to be determined regarding the transaction related variables such as
the number of Peet's shares that will be issued to Diedrich shareholders
and the amortization life of the intangible assets that we're acquiring in
addition to the normal business
factors.
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Now
let's talk about what the acquisition means for Peet's operating results.
As Pat said earlier, we're adding a fast-growing Diedrich K-cup business
complementary to an already established Peet's infrastructure capable of
executing high growth consumer packaged coffee and tea initiatives. This
is a very synergistic combination. The value creation I'll lay out will
come from several main areas.
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First,
near in(?) there will be cost synergies associated with some duplicative
operating functions and Peet's public company related costs. We expect
this will annualize to about the $4 million range starting in mid-2010.
Second, there will be significant costs and sales synergies associated
with expanding Diedrich's current business through our DSD sales and
merchandising system and in other channels. This will certainly include
K-cups but potentially in whole bean and brown bag form as well. And
third, there will be a future growth associated with leveraging our coffee
expertise, products, brands and infrastructures in the high growth K-cup
segment beyond current Diedrich
business.
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Now
would be a good time to refer to the webcast for the slide that will
accompany my remarks. If you do not have access to the web now, you can
view this slide as part of a public filling we are making today and the
transcript of this call will also be filed as soon as it's
available.
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With
background, I just provided three areas of opportunity. The big picture on
the financial outlook for the combined company is that we expect to about
double our current EPS performance starting from today in 2011. We are
also creating a company with a strong EPS and sales growth profile moving
forward and it's worth noting that despite the 2010 EPS dilution our
EBITDA will actually improve by more than 60 percent over 2009
levels.
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Now
I'd like to refer you to the slide. Last week we shared with you our
guidance for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. For 2010 we gave guidance
that we expected to be in the $330 to $340 million sales range and
generate $44 to $45 million in EBITDA. With the Diedrich acquisition we
now expect to be in the $440 to $460 million sales range with 2010 EBITDA
in the $62 to $64 million range. For perspective, Diedrich's expected last
12 month's sales and growth rate as of the end of calendar year 2009 will
be $75 to $78 million range and a 50 percent growth rate. Thus, our sales
guidance for the combined company in 2010 is conservative and it does not
assume the growth rate over the past two years is even maintained in our
calendar year 2010.
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From
the 2010 base we expect to begin fully leveraging our assets and
infrastructure to growing K-cups single serve from and accelerating the
growth of this market ourselves by increasing household penetration with
our complementary premium priced brands, products, DSD system and West
Coast strength. As a result of this growth and the growth of our base
Peet's and Godiva consumer packaged business, we would expect sales in
2011 in the $550 to $580 million range and EPS in the $2.00 to $2.20
range. From there, we expect sales to grow 20 to 30 percent annually
through 2013 and EPS correspondingly to grow in the 35 to 50 percent range
annually.
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During
this time, as you can see, we expected to be significant cash generators
which will be used for capex primarily associated with additional K-cup
production lines and paying down debt. Given the strong cash generation,
we expect to be able to fully pay off the debt within four to five
years.
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As
you can see next year, 2010, we will be digesting a rather large
intangible amortization as the main driver of our 2010 EPS dilution.
However, this is short-lived and in 2011 we expect our earnings to be
about twice where they are in 2009.
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We
are assuming here that we have about $220 million of intangibles on our
balance sheet that needs to be amortized over a 15 year life. That is
currently being assessed by independent auditors. If we do end up as we
have assumed, we will have about $13 million of amortization next year
plus $6 million in interest expense and about 17 percent more shares
outstanding. Net, even though our EBITDA is expected to grow from our
current 2009 $38 to $39 million to a combined $62 to $64 million in 2010,
our EPS will likely be lower than this year by $0.15 to $0.25, falling in
the $0.80 to $0.90 range. However, as I said before, this is short-lived
as we expect our EPS to jump to the $2.00 to $2.20 range in 2011 and grow
rapidly from there.
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Let
me now turn to the balance sheet. As part of this transaction we will be
accessing $140 million in debt in addition to using Peet's strong cash
position to fund the non-stock portion of the transaction. We believe that
the proposed leverage on our combined balance sheet is prudent given the
strategic nature of this acquisition and our ability to reduce leverage
fairly quickly over time with strong cash generation from operations.
Furthermore, we are comfortable with the level of liquidity we will have
after close.
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Even
after we invest $20 to $30 million a year for capacity expansions to
support sales growth, we still expect to have sufficient cash flow to pay
off the debt that we are taking on as part of this transaction in its
entirety within four to five years, or that is to pay it off in its
entirety. As far as integration, we are comfortable that the integration
will be very manageable. We will maintain the Diedrich's roasting facility
in Castroville, California for all Diedrich products as they have invested
in packaging equipment there to meet their K-cup
needs.
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We
just completed an ERP implementation to upgrade all of our IT systems that
will make the system integration easier for us. And the DSD system has
just recently seamlessly absorbed the new Godiva line though it required
an enhancement to our DSD handheld computers used by our route sales team.
So that was a good dry run for a new product introduction. In addition, I
know Jim Grimes, our Senior Vice President of Product Supply Chain will
visit Diedrich's Castroville roasting and packaging facility employees
tomorrow and that Pat will be visiting with Diedrich's office employees
and plant employees with Paul Heeschen and the management team on
Wednesday. I think we're in good shape to
go.
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First
off, I'd like to reaffirm our guidance for 2009 that we gave last week of
EPS between $1.04 and $1.06. One caveat is this guidance excludes any
effect of the transaction. We will be giving more clarity about the
short-term impact in the S4 filing which will follow in the next several
weeks.
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Now
I'd like to turn it over to Pat before opening it up for
questions.
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Pat:
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Thanks,
Tom. We're very excited and I think you can all see why. Our people have
worked very hard over the past several years to put us in a position to
realize our vision to be the gold standard specialty coffee and tea
company with leading brands in every meaningful consumer segment in the
category. We have multiple growth initiatives with Peet's at the high end,
Godiva as the premium flavored medium roast coffee and now Diedrich's with
their high growth single serve K-cup business and capability. And our
infrastructure, our people, plant, DSD and IT system is all ready to go.
This is a significant win for Peet's and Diedrich shareholders and will
most certainly act as an accelerant to the growth in household penetration
of the Keurig single cup brewing system as we bring the full capability of
our assets and infrastructure to drive brewer adoption and K-cup
growth.
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Now
I'd like to turn it over to the operation to open up for any questions we
might have. One thing that I would like to point out to the audience is
that we will be filing tender offer documents including an S4 registration
statement which will describe in some detail the transaction and our
financial outlook and we expect that to be available to the public on
EDGAR sometime in the next week or so, so folks know that. Okay, operator,
we can open it up to questions now.
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Operator:
|
Thank
you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question please do
so by pressing star one on your touchtone telephone. Please keep in mind
if you're using a speakerphone to make sure your mute function is turned
off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Once again, that is star
one at this time. We'll take our first question from Matthew DeCrisco(?)
from Oppenheimer & Company.
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Q:
|
Thank
you very much. I was just curious what is the licensing agreement or the
tenure on that with Diedrich and the relationship they have with Keurig as
far as being one of the four selected brewers or coffee manufacturers to
be distributed through that form.
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Pat:
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Matt,
I'm sorry, can I just ask you to clarify a little bit what's your
question?
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Q:
|
Well,
the K-cup relationship and Diedrich with Keurig, they have -- they're one
of the four people that are distributed or have the K-cup licensing
agreement. How long is that in effect for? I think it was signed back in
May.
|
Pat:
|
Right.
So obviously the nature of the terms of the license agreement are
confidential. So I can't say. I can't answer that specifically other than
to say that obviously we've made a significant commitment to this major
growth segment and we wouldn’t have done that without the certainty of
knowing that we have a long-term opportunity
here.
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Q:
|
I'm
just wondering because it is owned by Green Mountain so I assume you went
through that and there is a long-term commitment to stay on that
platform?
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Pat:
|
Oh,
I think if you're asking more specifically about the single cup K-cup
platform, that's in its early adopter stages right now and I think without
speaking for the fine results of another public company that has produced,
obviously the Keurig single cup platform is growing dramatically, over 100
percent growth rate per year despite the fact that the household
penetration is still in the low single digits, so it's in the early
adopter stage.
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However,
this single cup brewing category which the Keurig system is the clear
leader in with K-cups is a real segment. It's here to say and it's going
to be a meaningful side segment. And our participation in it through the
acquisition of Diedrich is really less about participating and more about
being a driver of it. And we expect it to be a large growth market for a
long time to come.
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Q:
|
And
then the Quick Dispense relationship, with the conclusion of the
acquisition would they then be removed and you'd replace them with your
DSD system or would you maintain the relationship that they use, Quick
Dispense, to get into their existing grocery
relationships?
|
Pat:
|
I
actually know who Quick Dispense is because we've done our homework on
this acquisition and I think the way that you should think of them and
Paul if you might comment if I'm off base here, but Quick Dispense is
essentially more of a regional food service distributor type customer to
Diedrich and wouldn't really overlap with what we would plan to do with
our DSD system.
|
Paul:
|
I
think that's right, Pat. This is
Paul.
|
Operator:
|
Next
we'll go to David Tarantino from Robert W.
Baird.
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Q:
|
Hi,
good afternoon. First question is for Pat. Why do this transaction now
given the recent move to doing a second brand with Godiva? Why does it
make sense to layer on another growth vehicle at this stage? Maybe if you
could talk about your thought process on
that.
|
Pat:
|
The
best way to answer that question is we're ready and we haven't been sort
of preparing for this for six months. We've been preparing for it for 7.5
years. And we literally have built the brand and the infrastructure with
the plant and the national direct store delivery selling system and we
have a clear strategy which is to be the leading premium quality premium
priced brand in every major consumer segment out there. And we've captured
that with Peet's at high end for deep roast coffee lovers. Godiva is
launched, David. Our sales force has sold it in and now they're executing
it. It's not done so to speak but it's out there. We're not in the middle
of it anymore. And this segment which is represented by the complementary
brands and products that we're getting with Diedrich but also this very
fast-growth single serve K-cup form is a major consumer segment and we not
only want to be part of it, we want to be part of driving it. And we're
ready to execute and the opportunity is there and we're seizing
it.
|
Q:
|
Okay
and I guess why -- a follow-up to that -- why not go after it with the
Peet's brand or with the Godiva brand? Why did you need to acquire
Diedrich to do that?
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Pat:
|
Well,
let me clarify. We intend to use all of the growth infrastructure of the
company, all of the brands in the company and the products in the company
and determined the best way to fully grow and drive this new single cup
capability that we have. In the purchase of Diedrich we get a real running
head start here. They have a plant in Castroville with available capacity
in six K-cup packaging lines that's sort of on a $90 to $95 million sales
run rate. We just start on day one, hit the ground running and can start
expanding that business through our existing infrastructure and then add
additional brands and products down the line. So just taking their
existing business and leveraging our growth infrastructure on it would
make sense just doing that alone. However, when you take account what we
can do with Peet's and other premium products in the system it becomes
very, very attractive.
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|
The
other thing and I know I've shared this a lot before, we've already built
the growth infrastructure and put it in place that's needed here. So
really what we're going to be adding here is primarily the capital
associated with new packaging lines. Otherwise, we're leveraging the
existing infrastructure and I think you're starting to see what that means
in terms of the guidance we gave last week as we layer in continued Peet's
growth, layer in continued Godiva growth and now we're going to layer in
this packaged form of single cup growth and it's all building and
strengthening an existing system and an existing infrastructure. This has
been our strategy. It's coming to fruition. And it's very
exciting.
|
Q:
|
And
then a question on some of the revenue and EBIT growth assumptions that
were laid out for 2011 and beyond. I guess what was the basis for those
assumptions and in particular how much growth have you assumed with the
existing business versus some of the revenue synergies you see with
applying some of your current brands, Peet's and Godiva to Diedrich's
business?
|
Tom:
|
You
layered in about five questions there. I'll approach it more broadly on
the whole thing as far as what we looked at. We've been obviously studying
this market for a long time and as Pat said, we are very confident in we
think that Keurig has taken the number one position in this by a long shot
and is really driving household penetration. And we do think we have the
opportunity to accelerate that because there is an opportunity we think in
the West for them to have a larger footprint of in households out
here.
|
|
As
we look at the opportunity for us in our system in that fast-growing area
and what we can help to do to even make it grow faster and continue the
momentum going, and you start running that with an existing infrastructure
where you already have route salespeople going into grocery stores,
walking right by the K-cups that are in -- or where there aren't K-cups in
the Western US in grocery stores and now having another thing on their
truck that they could take in, have a manufacturing facility with excess
capacity that you could utilize to put in additional packaging and a
management team frankly who has been running billion dollar companies for
most of their career, it actually -- it all comes together in a
synergistic way that is behind the numbers that you're looking at that
while they look very bold we've actually had to peel back our own
enthusiasm behind them.
|
|
So
as we put the S4 out we'll have more detail. So this is meant to give you
kind of a broad overview of the magnitude of what our undertaking is, not
necessarily a fine point adjustment and so forth. You'll get more detail
as we get some of the closing things down and the timing and so forth. But
it really is just putting a high growth engine into something that is
already established, solid and has the foundation that can take growth and
turn it into stronger growth.
|
Pat:
|
The
only thing I would add to Tom is when you look at the out years in our
projections here, we're assuming a relatively conservative minority share
of the existing market. We do assume that our participation in this will
be beyond participation and actually drive the household penetration of
the brewer system quicker. But we don't sort of bake that in to our
projections in the out years even though we think that will occur. And a
lot of the story here is there's quite a bit of leverage as Tom just
discussed.
|
|
The
only other thing I would share is obviously in 2010 and I think you got
this from our prepared remarks, we're not assuming that we do a very good
job out of the box of accelerating Diedrich's existing business growth
rate in 2010. So I think that's reasonably conservative. I think we will
accelerate that growth rate. But you can take that as sort of a marker of
how we've assumed -- made assumptions moving forward. And then you'll see
a lot more detail on this when we file our
S4.
|
|
The
last thing I do want to say for those of you who have followed the
company, I've been here for 7.5 years as CEO. Tom's been here for maybe
1.5 years shorter than that and I think you'd say we have a fairly
reliable and consistent track record for delivering what we say we
will.
|
Q:
|
Makes
sense. Thanks for all the detail there. One last one, Tom. I think you
mentioned a $75 to $78 million revenue number for Diedrich. What would be
the EBITDA associated with that
range?
|
Tom:
|
I
don't have that in front of me right now. I apologize, David. It'll be in
the S4 when we file that.
|
Operator:
|
Next
we'll go to Colin Butine(?) from Cowan &
Company.
|
Q:
|
Most
of my questions have been answered but can you maybe delve into
the…
|
Pat:
|
Colin,
can you speak up please?
|
Q:
|
Sure.
Can you -- I was just asking a question about the channel growth for
Diedrich. Is it mostly in grocery stores? Are you dealing mass channels or
other channels?
|
Pat:
|
Diedrich's
primary business now is in the retail non-grocery which would be some of
the department stores and mass merchandisers that also carry the Keurig
brewers. That's a significant portion. They also sell a large portion
online and a large segment of their business is through office coffee
distributors. They have almost no business in grocery stores, very, very
small.
|
Q:
|
Then
conversely, could the Peet's, could we then see the Peet's brand in the
mass channel through this acquisition or is that not being
contemplated?
|
Pat:
|
Well,
you know we built this direct store delivery freshness sensitive system
for Peet's in grocery and today it's focused on grocery and markets that
represent the largest specialty coffee consumption markets. And I think in
the near-term, Colin, that's where we continue to focus
it.
|
Operator:
|
Once
again, that is star one at this time if you would like to ask a question.
Next we'll go to Steve West at Stifel
Nicolaus.
|
Q:
|
Hey,
guys. Just a couple questions on you guys had told me before technology
around K-cups -- Can you hear me?
|
Q:
|
Okay.
You had told me before, Pat, that technology with K-cups for Peet's coffee
just wasn't there right now. Is that still the case? Are we looking
probably still several years down the road for Peet's to get into K-cups
or maybe even never if the technology doesn't get
there?
|
Pat:
|
No.
I think the technology advances and what those folks have done in terms of
the quality of the brewers and the quality of the brewed coffee is very,
very encouraging. I think it will only get better. The management team
there is very strong and I think they have a very good vision for what
they're doing and a lot of expertise and capability. So I don't think we
would have done this deal if we didn't envision having the Peet's brand in
a K-cup form that brewed an excellent cup of coffee. We wouldn't have done
it. And we wouldn’t have done it if we couldn't see it real near in. And
so I think that's all very
positive.
|
|
I
do want to underscore that in terms of the Peet's brand and where it's
positioned which is its distinctive quality and superior fresh position
and the fact that we've built a roast to order facility and a direct store
delivery system to be true to that, will remain the same in any form that
Peet's is sold in. But yeah, we're excited about the quality of the cup
and the technology and where it is and where it's
headed.
|
Q:
|
Can
you maybe give just a -- I'm not looking for a specific time but maybe
some kind of timeframe of when you would expect to maybe see Peet's in a
K-cup if it were to happen or even Godiva? Would you envision maybe doing
Godiva first if you even have that right and then maybe Peet's later down
the road?
|
Pat:
|
Steve,
I think in the upcoming week here when we file our S4 and we have more
specifics on the financial outlook and also the details of the transaction
you'll get better color on that. And Tom and I will also be putting
together an investor presentation to follow-up with folks so that they can
get a better sense for what our plans are. Obviously we're getting to you
pretty quickly here. Our plans obviously include putting Peet's in a K-cup
and I don't see that happening two years from now, I see it happening a
lot sooner. But there's a pecking order to our priorities that we've
figured into our growth model and the first priority is to sort of get up
and running with the existing products leveraging our infrastructure and
then making sense of the segments that we want to enter and the order we
want to enter them in through this exciting new high growth K-cup single
cup form.
|
Q:
|
And
Pat, one more thing. You talked about leveraging the DSD. And maybe you
said it and I just missed it but how do you leverage DSD then with the
K-cups or the infrastructure there? How are you going to get that leverage
out of DSD?
|
Pat:
|
Well,
we have a direct store delivery sales system of now over 250 routes
nationally and the key economic driver of any direct store delivery sales
system like that is what I'll call regional relative critical mass, how
much critical mass you have in any region and the volume per stop. So the
more volume that we are selling off of those routes at each stop they make
it behaves a little bit like a comp point in the store, Steve. It's highly
accretive. So as we are dramatically growing the Peet's brand in its
segment and then we're introducing this new premium quality premium priced
Godiva brand, an entirely new complementary segment, and then we enter
into and add our brands and select Diedrich brands in this very high
growth single cup K-cup segment and we do all of that through our route
sales representatives and that DSD system, it's a highly, highly
leverageable asset.
|
Q:
|
So
K-cups would be going through your DSD
then?
|
Q:
|
Okay,
sorry about that. I wasn't quite clear on that then. And then is there any
kind of sales overlap? Will you be cannibalizing each other's sales by
doing this? I mean because Diedrich's is pretty good coffee. I know that.
So are you kind of taking away from Godiva potentially by doing
Diedrich's? Or how…?
|
Pat:
|
No,
no, no, no. No, no. I think product-wise and brand-wise, I mean this
couldn't be more complementary. I mean Peet's is its own segment. Godiva
is a very premium quality premium priced flavored and medium roast brand.
The Diedrich Coffee People and Gloria Jean's brands are in a different
sort of segment in terms of the psychographics of the consumer, the
product profiles, etcetera. So those are going to be very complementary to
us, not to mention that the entire single cup form which is over 90
percent of the current Diedrich business is entirely incremental and
complementary to our business.
|
Operator:
|
Our
final question will come from Matthew DeFrisco(?) from Oppenheimer &
Company.
|
Q:
|
Thank
you. I just wanted to fully understand when the acquisition closes and
looking at your pro forma numbers is there an assumption that you have --
do you have the flexibility to add to that agreement or that licensing
agreement with the Green Mountain's Keurig K-cup product line up to be
able to do Godiva and Peet's or would that have to be a totally different
negotiation or is that negotiation going on with Green Mountain as you
approach this acquisition?
|
Pat:
|
No,
we have the ability to do Peet's.
|
Q:
|
Through
buying Diedrich's?
|
Pat:
|
In
Diedrich's we're buying the existing Diedrich business and all of its
assets, its brands, its products and the fact that it is a licensee of
K-cups. So we will become a licensee of K-cups as well. As under that
license we will be able to leverage all of our brands, products and
infrastructure to grow that business and help drive the household
penetration of the brewing system and the K-cup model
overall.
|
Q:
|
Is
there any approval needed by the Green Mountain
shareholders?
|
Pat:
|
No.
We're buying the Diedrich Company. The only approval that's required is
from Diedrich shareholders. We have the unanimous support of their
Board.
|
Q:
|
And
then just looking at where currently the K-cups, sort of following on the
last question there with the K-cups, where they're sold, club stores,
direct mail, department stores, not really grocery stores. Are you then
going to in 2010 allow -- bring on to your trucks K-cups to be sold into
your West Coast Safeways and have you had those dialogues with the large
accounts, that they would adopt them and want to put them on their
shelves?
|
Pat:
|
Let
me just take a step back. That's a big question, Matt, and let me step
back here. What's happening in the single serve market right now as it
goes from the low household penetration but high growth early adopter
phase is the channels that this single serve segment of coffee and I'm not
just talking the K-cup single serving, any single serve, it starts off in
retail in department stores and mass merchandisers because that’s where
people buy appliances. And that's sort of a large growth channel now. And
then the other place that you'll find it is on the internet because it's
in the early adopter stage.
|
|
What
happens and you'll see this in the Eastern United States is in markets in
the Eastern United States where the household penetration of single cup
brewers is much more well penetrated in some markets, what you start to
see happen is this beginning of the development of the market for single
cups and in the case of K-cups in grocery stores because now grocery
stores see that this is a market and they see that -- and I think you'll
see there's about 5,000 grocery stores in the Eastern United States now
that carry a substantial selection of K-cups. And as the market develops,
it will continue to develop that way. Brewer household adoption will be
driven by retail and mass department stores and then you'll start to see
the grocery business grow and I think you'll probably see and hear more
news about that.
|
|
Having
said that, the office coffee channel is very big and we have an office
coffee sales network. The internet is big and we have both Peets.com,
Coffee.com as platforms and we also have the existing brands that we've
acquired and their internet platforms. So we have those capabilities. We
then have the ability to use the DSD system as the grocery market develops
and that's happening because it's already penetrating in the Eastern US
grocery and I think you'll see that in the West very soon, very, very soon
and go from there.
|
|
So
I think we've got the whole consumer infrastructure that we can apply to
this and DSD is one piece of it but it's happening very fast, Matt. And
you've got to take a look at this single cup household penetration growth
and what's happening. It's a very fast-growing segment. It's here to stay.
And it's going to be a significant consumer segment. And this isn't going
to take five years. This is happening
now.
|
Q:
|
I
think we all agree. And we've seen the growth of that channel and I think
that's been a question directly from your investors to you guys on how you
view that. And I think I guess I was expecting it more to be a Peet's
brand like some of the other questions were focusing on and then also just
trying to understand immediately in your current near-term guidance in the
2010 and 2011 outlook how much have you already seen as far as the
tangible ability to bring into your existing accounts a new product line
very similar to what you're doing with Godiva. Is it something in 2010 and
2011 that you will be able to introduce into the grocery channel
relationships or is it something that further down the line you expect to
develop as the channel develops?
|
Pat:
|
In
our assumptions in 2010 really the underlying factors in our assumptions
behind 2010 are that we take this existing business that we're acquiring
and we don't even maintain its existing high growth rate in our
assumptions. So I think they're conservative there. We don't have in our
2010 assumptions any significant volume from the introduction of Peet's or
any of our other products into this form. As we head into 2011 we'll start
to see that though.
|
Operator:
|
Ladies
and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions. I would like to
turn the call back over to Pat O'Dea for any additional or closing
remarks.
|
Pat:
|
We
don't have any additional remarks, Operator. I want to thank everybody for
joining us today to hear this exciting news and we look forward to closing
the transaction and moving forward with our growth
strategy.
|
Operator:
|
Ladies
and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your
participation.
|
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