NEW
YORK, Jan. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/
-- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (NYSE: MUFG) Economic
Research Office issued its 2024 outlook report titled "Five Key
Questions for 2024," in which contributors Henry Cook, Senior Economist, London; Agron
Nicaj, U.S. Economist, New
York; and Sai Yabuki, Japan Economist, Tokyo, explore major global macro themes for
the next 12 months.
2023 can be summarized as a year of resilience as advanced
economies avoided sharp downturns despite rapid monetary policy
tightening. The U.S. economy was a particularly bright light with
buoyant domestic demand driving an upswing through the year. The
Japanese economy also expanded strongly in H1 2023, before losing
steam in the second half of the year. It's been tougher going in
Europe with the euro area economy
now teetering close to a mild technical recession against a broader
backdrop of stagnation.
This tees up some key questions for the year ahead from a macro
perspective, the most important of which relates to the durability
of the U.S. expansion. As it stands, a so-called U.S. 'soft
landing' seems increasingly plausible, although we still look for a
cyclical slowdown. "We expect real GDP growth to weaken in the
first half of 2024, but for consumers to have enough strength,
bolstered by a strong labor market, to keep consumption growth in
positive territory," writes Nicaj.
The European economy, starting from a position of relative
weakness, may be able to catch up a little ground in the second
half of the year. We are also cautiously optimistic about the
outlook for the Japanese economy.
Despite this, we suspect that markets are currently pricing in
too much in the way of rate cuts given our U.S. soft landing/no
imminent recession call, although we do expect easing from the Fed,
ECB and BoE this year. Meanwhile, the BoJ is likely to be swimming
against the global monetary policy tide as it will look to raise
interest rates back to positive territory.
To access the complete outlook report, please visit the MUFG
Americas website here.
Press contact:
Meghan Carbone
Meghan.Carbone@mufgsecurities.com
T: +1 (908) 894-0573
About MUFG and MUFG Americas
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is one of the
world's leading financial groups. Headquartered in Tokyo and with over 360 years of history, MUFG
has a global network with approximately 2,000 locations in more
than 40 countries. MUFG has nearly 120,000 employees and offers
services including commercial banking, trust banking, securities,
credit cards, consumer finance, asset management, and leasing. The
Group aims to "be the world's most trusted financial group" through
close collaboration among our operating companies and flexibly
respond to all the financial needs of our customers, serving
society, and fostering shared and sustainable growth for a better
world. MUFG's shares trade on the Tokyo, Nagoya, and New
York stock exchanges.
MUFG's Americas operations, including its offices in the U.S.,
Latin America, and Canada, are primarily organized under MUFG
Bank, Ltd. and subsidiaries, and are focused on Global Corporate
and Investment Banking, Japanese Corporate Banking, and Global
Markets. MUFG is one of the largest foreign banking organizations
in the Americas. For locations, banking capabilities and services,
career opportunities, and more,
visit www.mufgamericas.com.
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