This year's trend heartens auto makers, dealers that were
bracing for a collapse
By Mike Colias
This article is being republished as part of our daily
reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S.
print edition of The Wall Street Journal (November 14, 2017).
Used-car prices have held up this year, defying predictions.
That is bad news for shoppers, but the trend is helping buoy the
outlook for auto makers, dealers and rental-car companies.
Prices of used cars were expected to plummet starting in 2017 as
millions of vehicle leases expired and people who bought following
the financial crisis exchanged their old rides for new ones.
Softening prices in the preowned market can force auto companies to
offer customers richer incentives or extend deeper discounts on new
cars, resulting in lower margins on fresh models rolling out of
factories.
But the predicted price collapse hasn't happened, and now there
is optimism that the swell of vehicles that will hit the used
market may not be as problematic for new-car sales as initially
feared.
The number of lease returns is expected to reach 11.3 million in
the three years ending in 2019, 49% more than the same three-year
period that ended in 2016, according to research firm J.D.
Power.
Thus far, the market is absorbing the extra supply thanks to
tighter inventory controls by various industry players and the loss
of as many as a half-million cars to hurricanes in Texas and
Florida.
Manheim, an auction company tracking prices, said the average
used vehicle wholesaled for $13,599 in October, representing a
record transaction price that is 8.1% higher than the same month a
year ago. That price is adjusted for seasonal factors and partially
reflects increased demand for pricier pickups and SUVs, while
prices for passenger cars have declined.
Black Book, a used-car tracking publication owned by Hearst
Business Media Corp., said used-vehicle depreciation has worsened
because more cars are hitting the market, but the impact on prices
hasn't been as bad as expected. Black Book vehicle depreciation has
grown 1.5% in 2017, far behind the 6% rate initially forecast.
Auto makers watch these numbers so they can set resale values
for leases that now represent about a third of new-car sales. Used
prices also help determine the level of discounts or rebates needed
to persuade a person to choose a new car over used.
Ford Motor Co. late last year warned falling used-car prices
would shave $300 million from full-year operating profit but backed
off the gloomy outlook last month.
"We're not seeing the decline to be as precipitous as we
thought" on used vehicles, Ford Motor finance chief Bob Shanks said
on a conference call last month. That "should make it a bit easier
for us to do better in terms of new vehicle prices."
Demand from buyers replacing hundreds of thousands of
storm-damaged vehicles in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in
September helped boost used-car values. Barclays Capital analyst
Brian Johnson said in a research note in early November that it
won't last: "We expect used car pricing...to turn negative in the
coming months as hurricane benefits dissipate."
Others say concerns about replacement demand drying up are
assuaged by the longer-term trend, with price increases being
reported in nine of the 10 months of 2017, according to Manheim.
This year's gains more than reverse declines reported over the
course of 2016.
Inventory-management strategies are driving the longer-term
trend. Dealers and rental-car agencies, which sell a substantial
portion of the 40 million used cars exchanging hands annually in
the U.S., are often relying less on industry auctions to unload
gently used cars. Instead, they are reselling them through
strategic marketing efforts, such as "certified preowned" vehicles
on a dealership lot or a rental-car company's own retail
network.
Sales of certified preowned vehicles, which are refurbished and
certified by the dealer or manufacturer, were up 1% through
September, according to data from trade publication Automotive
News.
Kathryn Marinello, chief executive of Hertz Global Holdings
Inc., said Friday the company is "being smart about how we sell"
vehicles coming out of daily-rental service. Much like rival Avis
Budget Group Inc., Hertz is backing away from auctions, with 81% of
its vehicles sold in the third quarter through dealerships or its
own stores, up from 72% and 60% in the prior two quarters
respectively.
The company also is renting vehicles to Uber and Lyft drivers, a
strategy that is keeping the automobiles in service longer, Ms.
Marinello said. Hertz spent the first half of the year refreshing
its vehicle fleet to include more SUVs and features that buyers
will want, which should make it easier to unload those vehicles
when they come out of service.
In addition, domestic auto makers are no longer dumping unwanted
cars on rental lots.
"All of the Big 3 Detroit OEMs have gotten much more disciplined
about both the quality of the cars they put out into the rental
fleets and quantity. I do think that's having a positive impact on
the residual values," Ms. Marinello said.
For these reasons, Hertz expects only a 2% decline in used-car
prices in 2018.
Buoyant used-car prices would help dealership groups, because
used cars tend to deliver bigger profit margins than new
vehicles.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in an August research
note that the stabilization of prices helped stem "negativity on
used cars" among auto-sector investors.
Miles Thompson, general manager at Thompson Buick-GMC in
Springfield, Mo., said used-vehicle prices have remained stubbornly
high, especially on popular trucks. He buys between 100 and 200
used vehicles a month from auctions to stock the dealership's
preowned lot.
"People thought the bottom would drop out. That hasn't
happened," Mr. Thompson said.
Write to Mike Colias at Mike.Colias@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 14, 2017 02:47 ET (07:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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