Earnings Scorecard: AMAT - Analyst Blog
November 23 2011 - 11:25AM
Zacks
Following the fourth quarter earnings announcement on November
16, more than half the analysts covering Applied
Materials (AMAT) have made downward revisions to their
estimates. The reason for the negative revisions may be traced to
the weak results and outlook, particularly for the Display and
Energy and Environmental Systems (EES) segments that is expected to
continue well into 2012.
Last Quarter Synopsis
Applied’spro forma earnings were in line with the Zacks
Consensus Estimate as lower revenue and margins were partially
offset by strong opex management and a lower-than-expected tax
rate.
Revenue growth was weak across the Display and EES (solar)
segments, with the Silicon Systems Group (SSG) performing in line
with expectations. However, Applied’s penetration in Asiadeepened
significantly, helping the Applied Global Services (AGS) segment to
exceed expectations.
Orders in the quarter were down 33.0% sequentially due to order
declines in display (-91% sequentially) and EES (-3% sequentially).
The lower demand for TVs and mobile devices in the display segment
and excess capacity in the EES segment were the main reasons for
the decline. Gross margins also declined sequentially to 39.6%
aslower volumes impacted cost absorption.
Agreement of Analysts
Estimate revisions for the upcoming quarter indicate declining
sentiments, with 15 out of 17 analysts making downward revisions in
the last 30 days. Also, for fiscal 2012, 15 out of 20 analysts made
downward revisions, with only 1 analyst moving upward in the last
30 days.
Analysts, by and large, continue to expect additional semi
equipment order weakness in 2012. They believe that significant
pressure in both Display (due to slow large TV sales growth) and
EES (due to overcapacity and subsidy cutbacks) will weigh on
Applied’s core fundamentals.
The analysts believe that both these segments will likely remain
under pressure over the next several quarters with the timing of a
recovery being uncertain, given the overcapacity issues and macro
headwinds.
Very few analysts believe that the display business will improve
in the upcoming quarter, banking on investments in LCD/OLED that
they expect will enable recovery.
Applied now projects first quarter revenue to be down 5-15%
sequentially, with SSG (including Varian) to be up 5-20%
sequentially, AGSto be down 10-20% (the combined effect of lower
200mm sales, lower utilization rates and the absence of thin film
revenue), and Display and EES to be down 40-60%.
Impact on Estimates
As the majority of analysts have lowered their estimates over
the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has fallen 6 cents
for the upcoming quarter to 12cents and 16 cents for fiscal 2012 to
84 cents. In the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate fell 19
cents for the upcoming quarter and 49 cents for fiscal 2012 to 84
cents.
The significant decline of 48 cents in the Zacks Consensus
Estimate for 2012 clearly indicates the uncertainties in the
semiconductor business and echoes the general pessimism for both
display and solar in 2012.
Conclusion
Though we believe there is potential in the solar energy market
over the long term, we remain cautious on the company's efforts
since management has already missed several targets to bring its
solar division to profitability. Additionally, limited visibility
and lower overall semiconductor equipment spending levels are the
reasons our Sell rating on the stock.
However, we remain positive about Applied’s strong position in
the semiconductor market, the solar business in China, the huge
portfolio and strategic relationships, which will however be less
effective in the current market scenario.
Applied, which competes with other large equipment makers, such
as KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC), Lam
Research Corporation (LRCX) and Novellus
Systems (NVLS),holds a Zacks #5 Rank that translates into
a short-term Sell rating.
APPLD MATLS INC (AMAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
KLA-TENCOR CORP (KLAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
LAM RESEARCH (LRCX): Free Stock Analysis Report
NOVELLUS SYS (NVLS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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