Weak ADP Report, Mixed Earnings - Analyst Blog
May 04 2011 - 5:08AM
Zacks
With the April non-farm payroll report coming out Friday morning,
the market's focus remains on the labor market. And we got a
less-than-reassuring glimpse of the jobs situation through the
weaker-than-expected report this morning from the payroll
processor,
Automatic Data Processing (ADP).
ADP reported that 179,000 private sector jobs were created in
April, which was short of expectations in the 200,000 vicinity.
This is also below current expectations of private sector jobs in
the Friday's non-farm payroll report.
ADP's position as the nation's largest private-sector payroll
processor provides it an excellent vantage point from which to read
changes in the nation's labor market. The ADP report did not do a
good job of foretelling the government jobs reports in the winter
months, but has been right on the money in the last two months. The
payroll processor reported jobs gains of 217,000 and 207,000 in
February and March, which were subsequently confirmed by
private-sector jobs of 222,000 and 230,000 in the government's
report.
Given ADP's recent track record, stocks will be justified in
feeling subdued about the Friday report. Today's number, while not
materially away from market expectations, is nevertheless the
weakest ADP report of the year. It is consistent with the soft
first-quarter GDP reead and the recent negative turn in the weekly
Jobless Claims data. A materially soft number on Friday, something
under 100,000 for private sector jobs, will be a major setback for
the recent stock market momentum.
Notwithstanding a couple of uplifting M&A announcements, there
is not much reassuring for stocks on earnings front either. We got
a top- and bottom-line beat from
Time Warner
(TWX), but cereal giant
Kellogg (K) came short of
expectations due to a rise in input costs. Also missing
expectations were
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and
Devon Energy (DVN). In a notable deal in the tech
world,
Applied Materials (AMAT) is acquiring
fellow chip-equipment maker
Varian Semiconductor
(VSEA) for $5 billion in cash.
The mixed earnings reports aside, the focus will remain on ADP's
subpar jobs report. Today's report is another reminder that the
U.S. economy is still not producing enough jobs to make a major
dent in the unemployed rolls. It will be very difficult to
accelerate the economy's growth momentum in the absence of a
credible labor market turnaround.
AUTOMATIC DATA (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report
APPLD MATLS INC (AMAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
DEVON ENERGY (DVN): Free Stock Analysis Report
KELLOGG CO (K): Free Stock Analysis Report
LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS): Free Stock Analysis Report
TIME WARNER INC (TWX): Free Stock Analysis Report
VARIAN SEMI (VSEA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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