Microsoft Corp (MSFT) announced that it has
entered into a definitive agreement for the acquisition of Skype
for $8.5 billion in cash. The boards of directors of Microsoft and
Skype have approved the deal and the two companies expect to obtain
regulatory approval before year's end.
Skype will operate as a separate business division and its CEO
Tony Bates will remain at the helm, reporting directly to Microsoft
CEO Steve Ballmer.
A number of companies, including Google Inc
(GOOG) and Facebook have been considering the purchase, which is
probably the reason for the extremely attractive offer.
Skype owners eBay Inc (EBAY) with its 30%
share, co-founders Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis with their 14%
stake, and Silver Lake Partners, Andreessen Horowitz and the Canada
Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) with their 56% percent stake,
have been eager to sell off Skype after its IPO got delayed.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) and
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) acted as advisors
for Skype, Microsoft’s advisors remain undisclosed.
Microsoft gains because...
The company now has access to Skype’s peer-to-peer networking
technology, which could help revitalize its
collaborative capabilities. Skype’s voice, video and sharing
technologies would complement Microsoft’s Lync, which is an
application integratingits email, instant messaging and voice
communications.
Microsoft stated that Lync grew 30% in the last quarter. In the
enterprise market, the acquisition could improve its competitive
position versus Google and/or Cisco Systems
(CSCO). In the consumer market, it would help connection with other
Microsoft communities, such as Xbox Live, enhancing interaction
between users. The Skype brand name could also be beneficial.
Microsoft has also lagged Google and Apple Inc.
(AAPL) in the smartphone segment. Google Voice and Apple’s
soon-to-be-launched Facetime indicate that Microsoft is really far
behind in the race for mobile collaboration.
Although the company has introduced an attractive OS (Windows Phone
7), it has not seen any significant market share gains.
Microsoft also partnered with Nokia Corp (NOK)
to increase penetration, but Nokia has its own problems and
significant revenue contribution is not on the horizon yet. Skype
immediately gives Microsoft a competitive offering.
Skype brings a huge customer base, which is
currently estimated to be 170 million. Moreover, customers range
from colleagues to family, friends and social contacts, making the
platform ideal for Microsoft’s web-based offerings.
Of course, there is also some risk...
Microsoft’s position versus telecom carriers
becomes a bit cloudy. While it is a fact that some carriers are
thinking of partnering with Skype as they transition to LTE-based
networks, they are fully aware of the threat the technology brings.
Skype’s technology enables free calling from computer to computer
and on some phones.
If Microsoft brings a version for its Windows Phone 7, they
could essentially enable users to make free calls through IP
networks without paying the carriers anything. Integrating this
into Windows Phone 7 could make the OS more attractive, but it
would probably increase resistance to Microsoft phones, since it
could result in a loss for carriers. Therefore, there is a real
chance that Microsoft would lose out despite a significant product
enhancement.
Skype has not been doing well financially. The company has been
around for eight years and has generated little profit in all that
time. In 2010, Skype generated just $264 million in operating
profit and $7 million of net losses on revenue of around $860
million. Debt levels are very high at around $686 million.
Another concern is that Microsoft, with its sprawling operations
and bureaucracy, could scare off the opportunistic engineering
talent that remains at Skype. If the company does not keep up the
pace of innovation at Skype and instead tries to integrate it into
its own system, much of the advantage related to the technology
would be lost.
Moreover, Microsoft needs to continue supporting Skype on all
platforms -- even if they belong to a competitor -- if Skype’s
appeal is to be sustained despite the obvious pull to integrate.
Microsoft’s success with the acquisition will depend on its ability
to strike a balance.
The acquisition does look very expensive. It is the largest in
Microsoft’s 36-year old history (Microsoft has not been a great
acquirer, it has acquired few companies and has usually not reaped
a whole lot of benefit).
Conclusion
We think the odds are fairly balanced, so a lot will depend on
execution, i.e. what Microsoft does with the acquisition. Whatever
the outcome, Microsoft has taken a serious initiative, which is
likely to determine its web and mobile image in the near
future.
The deal value does come as a surprise (Skype was looking to
sell for $5-6 billion). But big acquisitions seem to be the rule of
the day, what with Intel Corp (INTC) picking up
McAfee and Texas Instruments (TXN) grabbing
National Semiconductor (NSM).
We note that while Google shares have appreciated just slightly
and Microsoft has been edging down, eBay shares are appreciating
nicely at the prospect of acquiring a chunk of cash.
The rating for Microsoft is Za#3, implying a Hold rating in the
short term (1-3 months).
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