Eurozone Investor Confidence Highest Since May - Sentix
December 04 2023 - 3:35AM
RTTF2
Euro area investor sentiment rose for a second straight month in
December, raising expectations for an economic turnaround at the
start of the next year, survey data from the behavioral research
institute Sentix showed Monday.
The Sentix investor confidence index climbed to -16.8 from -18.6
in November. Economists had forecast a reading of -15.0. The score
was the highest since May this year.
Both the expectations sub-index and the current situation
measure improved in December. The expectations sub-index climbed to
-9.8 from -10.0 and marked its highest level since February this
year. Expectations improved strongly for the third month in a row.
The current situation index rose to -23.5 from -26.8 in the
previous month. "At 0.2 points, however, the increase [in the
expectations index] is very moderate," Sentix said. "However, as
the situation values also improved slightly, the question arises as
to whether we can speak of a trend reversal."
While many economists view three increases in the expectation
value as a sign of a trend reversal, the still weak overall
momentum and the lack of a certain amount of international support
speak against this, the think tank said. "So far, there are no
signs of a new upswing in any region," Sentix said. "This would
require positive expectations, preferably in double figures."
Such opportunities may arise at the start of the year as there
are positive developments in the inflation outlook, the institute
added. The inflation barometer of the Sentix survey improved for
the fifth month in a row to 16.25 points. This suggest that
investors not only see an end to the central banks' prolonged cycle
of interest rate hikes, but now also expect positive support from
monetary policy, the institute said. Among the other main economies
surveyed, the investor confidence in Germany also rose for a third
month in a row, led by improved in the current situation
measure.
The expectations measure for the German economy weakened
implying less chance of a turnaround soon. Similar trends were seen
for the U.S. economy though the expectations reading, albeit
negative, was better than that of Germany's. All there indexes of
the survey improved for Eastern Europe suggesting that economies in
the region may be shedding the effect of the war in Ukraine.
Sentix also pointed out that the election of the libertarian
politician Javier Milei as Argentina's new president has not yet
found any significant reflection in the survey data.
The latest Sentix survey was conducted from November 30 to
December 02 among 1,245 investors.
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