Serinus Announces Competent Person’s Report on Reserves
December 04 2017 - 5:00PM
Serinus Energy Inc. (“
Serinus”,
“
SEN” or the “
Company”)
(TSX:SEN)(WARSAW:SEN), announces the results of a competent
person’s report (“
CPR”) of its oil and gas
Reserves as at September 30, 2017. The report was prepared by
RPS Energy Canada Ltd. (“
RPS”) in accordance with
the AIM Guidance Note for Mining, Oil and Gas Companies dated June
2009, and includes the Reserves in Serinus’ properties in Tunisia
and Romania. RPS also conducted a Contingent Resources
assessment of the Company’s properties. The Company engaged RPS to
conduct the CPR as part of its continued investigation in listing
on the Alternative Investment Market (“AIM”) of the London Stock
Exchange. The table below compares the CPR versus the Company’s
2016 year-end Reserves report completed by RPS in accordance with
Canadian National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for
Oil and Gas Activities.
Company Gross Reserves – Using Forecast
Prices
|
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|
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September 30, 2017 (CPR) |
|
December 31, 2016 (NI 51-101) |
|
|
|
Oil/Liquids |
Gas |
BOE |
|
Oil/Liquids |
Gas |
BOE |
Change |
|
|
(Mbbl) |
(MMcf) |
(Mboe) |
|
(Mbbl) |
(MMcf) |
(Mboe) |
(%) |
TUNISIA (Company Working
Interest) |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
383 |
908 |
534 |
|
1,068 |
1,985 |
1,399 |
-62 |
% |
|
Non-Producing |
71 |
176 |
100 |
|
481 |
1,961 |
808 |
-88 |
% |
|
Undeveloped |
827 |
1,951 |
1,152 |
|
699 |
1,641 |
973 |
18 |
% |
Total Proved (1P) |
1,281 |
3,035 |
1,787 |
|
2,247 |
5,587 |
3,178 |
-44 |
% |
Probable |
4,086 |
9,614 |
5,688 |
|
5,169 |
14,455 |
7,578 |
-25 |
% |
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
5,367 |
12,649 |
7,475 |
|
7,416 |
20,042 |
10,756 |
-31 |
% |
ROMANIA (Company Working
Interest) |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
- |
- |
- |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
|
Non-Producing |
- |
- |
- |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
|
Undeveloped |
13 |
6,380 |
1,076 |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
Total Proved (1P) |
13 |
6,380 |
1,076 |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
Probable |
27 |
8,636 |
1,466 |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
40 |
15,016 |
2,543 |
|
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
TOTAL COMPANY |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
383 |
908 |
534 |
|
1,068 |
1,985 |
1,399 |
-62 |
% |
|
Non-Producing |
71 |
176 |
100 |
|
481 |
1,961 |
808 |
-88 |
% |
|
Undeveloped |
840 |
8,331 |
2,229 |
|
699 |
1,641 |
973 |
129 |
% |
Total Proved (1P) |
1,294 |
9,415 |
2,863 |
|
2,247 |
5,587 |
3,178 |
-10 |
% |
Probable |
4,113 |
18,250 |
7,155 |
|
5,169 |
14,455 |
7,578 |
-6 |
% |
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
5,407 |
27,665 |
10,018 |
|
7,416 |
20,042 |
10,756 |
-7 |
% |
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______________________________Note: Serinus reports in US
dollars. All dollar amounts referred to herein are in USD,
unless specifically noted otherwise.
The price of Brent Crude started at just under
US$57/bbl in early January, and stayed within a narrow price band
of US$53-US$57 per barrel. In March, the Brent oil price quickly
dropped to just over US$50/bbl before recovering back to above
US$56/bbl in mid-April 2017. Oil prices then began to show higher
volatility from mid-April to the end of mid-June, fluctuating
within a $45/bbl-$55/bbl band before reaching $44.82 on June 21,
2017, this being the yearly low to date. The prices then began to
gradually strengthen the remainder of the year to date to the end
of November. The yearly high oil price was reached on November 6,
2017, at $64.27/bbl. The oil price has sustained levels above
$50/bbl for most of 2017 to date, creating more price certainty for
the industry after two years of operating in a mostly sub-$50/bbl
price environment.
Total Company 1P and 2P Reserves decreased from
2016 year-end by 10% and 7%, respectively. The shut-in of the
Sabria and Chouech Es Saida fields due to social unrest in Tunisia
were the dominant factor in first nine months of 2017. The
reduced reserves volumes are due to the continued shut-in of the
Chouech Es Saida field awaiting the management decision to restart
the field and delays in some development plans. There were
positive and negative revisions which are discussed below.
The negative reserve revisions in Tunisia were offset by the
reclassification of Romanian Contingent Resources to Reserves as
the Company has begun construction of the Moftinu Gas Development
Project, with first gas production anticipated for Q1 2018.
TunisiaFor Tunisia, 1P Reserves decreased by
44%, while 2P Reserves decreased by 31% compared with the 2016
year-end Reserves report. The technical revisions to Reserves
are:
- Positive revisions included: ° Removing SAB N1
workover and replacing with SAB N2, adding more potential
recoverable volumes at lower cost; ° Improvement
in SAB 11 production performance; and ° Positive
revision for Win13, SAB NW1 and SAB N3H ultimate recoveries and
initial rates.
- Negative revisions included:
° Re-classification of Chouech Es Saida, Ech Chouech and
Sanghar fields from Reserves to Contingent Resources decreased 1P
Reserves by 1,151 Mboe, 72 Mboe, and 51 Mboe, respectively;
° Decreased performance of Sabria Win-12bis well when
production was restarted after an extended field shut-in period;
and ° Decreased Resources due to the removal of
future development plans for CS-5, CS Sil-10, CS Sil-1 &
CS-8bis.
RomaniaFor Romania, the Moftinu gas discoveries
have been reclassified from Contingent Resources to Reserves. The
2016 year-end risked 1C and 2C Contingent Resources were 547 Mboe
and 1,615 Mboe, respectively. In comparison, the CPR 1P and 2P
Reserves for Moftinu were 1,076 Mboe and 2,543 Mboe,
respectively.
Net Present Value – After Tax, Using
Forecast Prices
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|
September 30, 2017 (CPR) |
|
December 31, 2016 (NI 51-101) |
|
|
0 |
% |
10 |
% |
15 |
% |
|
0 |
% |
10 |
% |
15 |
% |
|
|
(US$ millions) |
|
(US$ millions) |
TUNISIA |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
(9.3 |
) |
(4.4 |
) |
(3.0 |
) |
|
3.7 |
|
7.4 |
|
7.9 |
|
|
Non-Producing |
(1.0 |
) |
(0.5 |
) |
(0.4 |
) |
|
9.9 |
|
8.1 |
|
7.0 |
|
|
Undeveloped |
6.3 |
|
3.1 |
|
1.6 |
|
|
17.2 |
|
4.9 |
|
1.8 |
|
Total Proved (1P) |
(4.0 |
) |
(1.8 |
) |
(1.8 |
) |
|
30.8 |
|
20.4 |
|
16.7 |
|
Probable |
89.5 |
|
41.7 |
|
28.2 |
|
|
218.7 |
|
87.4 |
|
61.6 |
|
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
85.5 |
|
39.9 |
|
26.4 |
|
|
249.5 |
|
107.8 |
|
78.3 |
|
ROMANIA |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
Non-Producing |
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
Undeveloped |
14.3 |
|
12.5 |
|
11.8 |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Total Proved (1P) |
14.3 |
|
12.5 |
|
11.8 |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Probable |
38.8 |
|
31.0 |
|
27.9 |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
53.1 |
|
43.5 |
|
39.7 |
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
TOTAL COMPANY |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Producing |
(9.3 |
) |
(4.4 |
) |
(3.0 |
) |
|
3.7 |
|
7.4 |
|
7.9 |
|
|
Non-Producing |
(1.0 |
) |
(0.5 |
) |
(0.4 |
) |
|
9.9 |
|
8.1 |
|
7.0 |
|
|
Undeveloped |
20.6 |
|
15.6 |
|
13.4 |
|
|
17.2 |
|
4.9 |
|
1.8 |
|
Total Proved (1P) |
10.3 |
|
10.7 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
30.8 |
|
20.4 |
|
16.7 |
|
Probable |
128.3 |
|
72.7 |
|
56.1 |
|
|
218.7 |
|
87.4 |
|
61.6 |
|
Total Proved & Probable (2P) |
138.6 |
|
83.4 |
|
66.1 |
|
|
249.5 |
|
107.8 |
|
78.3 |
|
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Net present values for Serinus’ Reserves increased by 155% and
12% for 1P and 2P Reserves, respectively. The contributing
factors to the $6.5 million increase in the 1P PV10 valuation
were:
- The reclassification of the Moftinu gas discoveries in Romania
to Reserves from Contingent Resources added US$12.5 million to the
1P PV10 valuation, more than offsetting the US$6.0 million decrease
to the 1P PV10 valuation in Tunisia;
- Lower Brent oil price forecast in the CPR versus the 2016
year-end Reserve report decreased the net present values for
Tunisia;
- The reclassification of Chouech Es Saida, Ech Chouech, and
Sanghar from Reserves to Contingent Resources contributed to the
decreased net present values for Tunisia;
- Sabria 1P Reserves capital expenditures increased by US$4.0
million thereby having a negative impact of Sabria net present
values;
- Higher assumed oil price differential to Brent for Tunisia oil
sales had negative impact on Tunisia net present values; and
- Higher estimated annual field operating costs for Sabria.
Gross Contingent Resources – Romania and
Tunisia
In addition to the 1P and 2P Reserves assigned
to the Company’s properties in Romania and Tunisia, Contingent
Resources are also assigned to the Moftinu discovery in Romania and
the Chouech Es Saida, Ech Chouech and Sanghar fields in
Tunisia.
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TUNISIA - Contingent Resources |
|
Resource Volumes (risked) |
|
AT NPV (risked) |
|
|
|
Oil/Liquids |
Gas |
BOE |
|
0 |
% |
10 |
% |
15 |
% |
|
Probability of
Development |
|
(Mbbl) |
(MMcf) |
(Mboe) |
|
(US$ millions) |
|
1C Contingent
Resources |
544 |
1,166 |
738 |
|
(17.6 |
) |
(7.2 |
) |
(4.3 |
) |
|
90 |
% |
2C Contingent
Resources |
1,169 |
2,482 |
1,583 |
|
(8.3 |
) |
7.7 |
|
9.1 |
|
|
90 |
% |
3C Contingent Resources |
2,213 |
4,691 |
2,995 |
|
19.3 |
|
25.8 |
|
20.8 |
|
|
90 |
% |
ROMANIA - Contingent Resources |
|
Resource Volumes (risked) |
|
AT NPV (risked) |
|
|
|
Oil/Liquids |
Gas |
BOE |
|
0 |
% |
10 |
% |
15 |
% |
|
Probability of
Development |
|
(Mbbl) |
(MMcf) |
(Mboe) |
|
(US$ millions) |
|
1C Contingent
Resources |
3 |
1,683 |
284 |
|
5.8 |
|
4.8 |
|
4.4 |
|
|
90 |
% |
2C Contingent
Resources |
15 |
5,707 |
966 |
|
26.0 |
|
17.7 |
|
14.8 |
|
|
90 |
% |
3C Contingent Resources |
30 |
9,271 |
1,575 |
|
45.6 |
|
25.2 |
|
19.1 |
|
|
90 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For Romania, the Contingent Resources reflect
untested additional zones that require production testing to
establish the ability of these zones to produce at commercial
rates. For Tunisia, the Contingent Resources classification for the
Chouech Es Saida field is due to the field being shut-in since late
February 2017 and the Company has not established a firm timeline
as to when these resources will be brought back onto
production.
Competent Person’s Price
Forecasts
RPS used the following commodity price forecasts
in preparing its evaluation of Serinus’ oil and gas properties:
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Tunisia Domestic Gas |
Romania Gas Price |
|
|
Brent |
Sabria |
Chouech |
Moftinu |
|
|
(US$/Bbl) |
(US$/Mcf) |
(US$/Mcf) |
(US$/MMbtu) |
|
Q4 2017 |
53.19 |
6.21 |
5.95 |
- |
|
2018 |
55.00 |
6.42 |
6.15 |
4.91 |
|
2019 |
57.50 |
6.71 |
6.43 |
5.14 |
|
2020 |
59.00 |
6.89 |
6.60 |
5.27 |
|
2021 |
62.80 |
7.33 |
7.03 |
5.61 |
|
2022 |
66.50 |
7.76 |
7.44 |
5.94 |
|
2023 |
69.00 |
8.06 |
7.72 |
6.16 |
|
2024 |
72.00 |
8.41 |
8.06 |
6.43 |
|
2025 |
76.30 |
8.91 |
8.54 |
6.81 |
|
2026 |
79.00 |
9.22 |
8.84 |
7.05 |
|
2027 |
85.33 |
9.96 |
9.55 |
7.62 |
|
2028 |
87.04 |
10.16 |
9.74 |
7.77 |
|
2029 |
88.78 |
10.37 |
9.93 |
7.92 |
|
2030 |
90.55 |
10.57 |
10.13 |
8.08 |
|
2031 |
92.36 |
10.78 |
10.33 |
8.24 |
|
2032 |
94.21 |
11.00 |
10.54 |
8.41 |
|
2033 |
96.10 |
11.22 |
10.75 |
8.58 |
|
2034 |
98.02 |
11.44 |
10.97 |
8.75 |
|
2035 |
99.98 |
11.67 |
11.19 |
8.92 |
|
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|
|
|
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|
Abbreviations
bbl |
Barrel(s) |
bbl/d |
Barrels per day |
boe |
Barrels of Oil Equivalent |
boe/d |
Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day |
Mcf |
Thousand Cubic Feet |
Mcf/d |
Thousand Cubic Feet per day |
MMcf |
Million Cubic Feet |
MMcf/d |
Million Cubic Feet per day |
Mcfe |
Thousand Cubic Feet Equivalent |
Mcfe/d |
Thousand Cubic Feet Equivalent per day |
MMcfe |
Million Cubic Feet Equivalent |
MMcfe/d |
Million Cubic Feet Equivalent per day |
Mboe |
Thousand boe |
Bcf |
Billion Cubic Feet |
MMboe |
Million boe |
Mcm |
Thousand Cubic Metres |
CAD |
Canadian Dollar |
MMbtu |
Million British Thermal Units |
USD |
U.S. Dollar |
|
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|
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Cautionary Statement:BOEs may
be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE
conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy
equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner
tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
About SerinusSerinus is an
international upstream oil and gas exploration and production
company that owns and operates projects in Tunisia and Romania.
For further information, please refer to the
Serinus website (www.serinusenergy.com) or contact the
following:
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Serinus Energy
Inc.Calvin BrackmanVice President, External
Relations & StrategyTel.: +1-403-264-8877
cbrackman@serinusenergy.com |
|
Serinus Energy Inc.
Jeffrey AuldChief Executive OfficerTel.:
+1-403-264-8877 jauld@serinusenergy.com |
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Translation: This news release has been
translated into Polish from the English original.
Forward-looking Statements This release
may contain forward-looking statements made as of the date of this
announcement with respect to future activities that either are not
or may not be historical facts. Although the Company believes that
its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are
reasonable as of the date hereof, any potential results suggested
by such statements involve risk and uncertainties and no assurance
can be given that actual results will be consistent with these
forward-looking statements. Various factors that could impair
or prevent the Company from completing the expected activities on
its projects include that the Company's projects experience
technical and mechanical problems, there are changes in product
prices, failure to obtain regulatory approvals, the state of the
national or international monetary, oil and gas, financial ,
political and economic markets in the jurisdictions where the
Company operates and other risks not anticipated by the Company or
disclosed in the Company's published material. Since
forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by
their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties
and actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statement. The Company undertakes no obligation to
revise or update any forward-looking statements in this
announcement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of
this announcement, unless required by law.
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