DALLAS, April 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in February to a
level of 118.6. February's reading is 21 points, or 21 percent,
above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 117.7
points for all of 2019, 0.9 points below the index average for
2018. January's index reading was revised to 117.9.
Due to reporting lags in state-level economic data, the February
edition of our Comerica state economic activity indexes does not
fully reflect the swift and powerful contraction in the U.S.
economy this spring due to the global coronavirus pandemic. In
February, our Michigan Index increased for the third consecutive
month, showing favorable economic conditions early this year. Eight
out of nine sub-indexes were positive in February, including
nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing
starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, total state
trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. The light
vehicle production sub-index was unchanged for the month. In the
March data, we expect to see most of the sub-indexes begin to
deteriorate, due to coronavirus-related social mitigation policies.
The April data will likely show a significant deterioration across
most sub-indexes. U.S. auto sales and production for April is
already expected to be historically low. Because of volatility in
many state-level economic series, our sub-indexes are based on
three-month moving average of the original data series. That
smoothing process means that the sub-indexes for May will show an
ongoing deterioration from April. Michigan is expected to continue its
shelter-in-place order at least through May
15. Even though some states are beginning to lift
restrictions now, their economies will take some time to show
consistent improvement.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks
in Michigan, is a subsidiary of
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company
headquartered in Dallas, Texas,
and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Michigan and
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank