DALLAS, April 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased by 0.7 percent in
January to a level of 117.2. January's reading is 19 points, or 20
percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged
118.4 points for all of 2018, 0.1 points above the index average
for 2017. December's index reading was 118.0.
Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index fell in January
by 0.7 percent, down for the third consecutive month. The index is
now down for six out of the past eight months. Over the year ending
in January, the Michigan index is
down by 1.1 percent. We expect Michigan to show moderate-to-weak gross
state product growth for 2018 and only weak growth for 2019. In
January, four out of nine index components were positive. They were
nonfarm payrolls, house prices, industrial electricity demand and
state sales tax revenues. Negatives for January were unemployment
insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, light vehicle
production, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The Michigan economy is enduring
creative-destruction in the auto sector. Older auto plants for less
popular gasoline-powered products are closing, while new facilities
are planned for next-generation electric vehicles. We expect the
churn in the auto industry to result in a net reduction in workers
required per vehicle assembled. A key motivator for the auto
industry is a significant decrease in the hands-on assembly time
for electric vehicles. This will likely have negative consequences
for Michigan's labor market even
as the auto industry remains healthy overall. Beyond the auto
sector, Michigan will feel the
drag from a cooler U.S. economy and cooler global conditions this
year.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks
in Michigan, is a subsidiary of
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company
headquartered in Dallas, Texas,
and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Michigan and
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank