DALLAS, Feb. 27, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index was unchanged in December.
December's reading is 27 points, or 27 percent, above the index
cyclical low of 97.7. The index averaged 124.0 points in 2018, 2.9
points above the average for all of 2017. November's reading was
revised to 124.3.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index was unchanged
in December following a slight decline in November. California's economy has weakened in recent
months. This is consistent with the rise in uncertainty seen
nationally amongst consumers and businesses at the end of 2018.
There were three positive index components in December including
nonfarm employment, industrial electricity demand and hotel
occupancy. The five negative components for the month include
unemployment insurance (inverted), housing starts, house prices,
total trade and the Dow Jones Tech Index. California labor data remains generally
positive. The state continued to see net job growth through the end
of 2018. However, the rise in unemployment insurance claims in
December and January are a cautionary sign pointing to a loss of
momentum in the state's labor market. In particular, the
Los Angeles metropolitan area saw
a moderation in hiring in 2018. Los
Angeles also saw a gradual increase in its unemployment rate
to 4.3 percent over 7 consecutive months ending in December.
California housing data weakened
at year-end. Our housing starts index was down 7 out of 12 months
in 2018. Moderating house price growth and slightly lower mortgage
rates will help ease some of the affordability issues. However, a
number of headwinds for housing remain, including a cooler global
economy, trade policy and increasing outmigration from California.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank