HOUSTON, April 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The BBVA
Research team has published its U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for
April 2020, offering insight into the
economic outlook as well as macro fundamentals.
The report, authored by BBVA senior economist Boyd Nash-Stacey, estimates that the U.S. gross
domestic product will drop by 4.7 percent in the first quarter and
by 32.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020, returning to
pre-crisis levels by second quarter 2022.
The Fed is expected to keep rates at the zero lower bound, and
the balance sheet is expected to grow to $7.5 billion. In addition, the report indicates
that long-term yields will remain close to current levels by
year-end, and oil prices are likely to remain low throughout
2020
In terms of economic activity, the report notes historic
pressure building on the supply side, with the high-tech sector
providing the only bright spot. The positive momentum in the
housing sector has been wiped out due to lockdowns and a tepid
demand-side outlook.
Labor force participation has plummeted with layoffs and
furloughs, but inflows could increase if the social safety net
encourages attachment. Relative to last year, the worst drop in
participation rates are among the 20- to 24-year-olds, down 1.88
percentage points year over year.
The Pulse provides a detailed analysis of the economic impact of
COVID-19 and the fiscal response, as well as the labor market,
inflation and monetary policy.
Led by Nathaniel Karp, BBVA
Compass' research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal
Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create
models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and
industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of
issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA Compass operates.
Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and
@BBVACompassNews.
Read the full report here.
See the complete library of BBVA Research publications here.
For more BBVA news visit, www.bbva.com and the U.S.
Newsroom.
Additional news updates can be found via Twitter and
Instagram.
For more financial information about BBVA in the U.S., visit
bbvausa.investorroom.com.
About BBVA
BBVA Group
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services
group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position
in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in
Mexico, it has leading franchises
in South America and the Sunbelt
Region of the United States. It is
also the leading shareholder in Turkey's Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring
the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers' real
needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best
financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The
institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think
big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to
achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.
BBVA USA
In the
U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates
641 branches, including 330 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 44 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico. The bank ranks among the top 25
largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and
ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been
recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the
Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in
terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year
2018.
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SOURCE BBVA USA