April Consumer Confidence Hits New Low Due to Stock Market Falls, Long Term Business Outlook Keeps Rising
April 30 2008 - 12:02AM
PR Newswire (US)
SHANGHAI, April 29 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Xinhua Finance eziData
China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was updated today, with the
survey results showing that, under the pressure of unrelieved
rising general prices and a fast falling stock market, Chinese
consumer confidence failed to maintain the rebounding trend seen in
the month before and fell again by 1.4 points in April to hit a new
low of 94.9 since the survey started in April 2007. However,
consumer confidence in the mid-long term business outlook was not
affected and kept rising for the third consecutive month in a row.
For more on Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index,
please refer to:
http://www.xinhuafinance.com/en/charts/indicator/ccci/ccci0804_en.jpg
. The recurrent steep falls in the stock market in April has had
great impact on consumers, causing a 3-point drop in consumer
confidence in current conditions, led by a large decline in
sentiment on current personal finances. Future expectations also
fell, yet only by a slight 0.5 point. It is worth noting that,
despite of the negative factors seen in April, consumer confidence
on business conditions five years from now did not fall. Instead,
it rose a full three points to 150.9, which was the third
month-on-month rise in a row, with the extent of rise increasing
each time, indicating a growing optimism in China's long term
economy on the part of the consumers. Under the support of the
Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer
Confidence Index is produced monthly by eziData, a local provider
of China consumer data, and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin.
Dr. Curtin is Research Professor and Director of the Consumer
Sentiment Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of
Social Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,543
telephone interviews from April 1 to 17, 2008. April 2007 survey
results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More on the survey
methodology can be found in the accompanying section. The constant
falls in the stock market incurred great losses on the part of the
investors, with consumers reporting an average of minus investment
returns in the past twelve months. However, data also shows that
the percentage of stock holders among all respondents, as well as
the percentage of stocks they hold, kept stable, and their future
expectations of the stock market did not collapse but remained
stable as in the last few months. All this is suggesting that the
hardest times for the stock market is about to be over. (The data
collection of April survey was completed by April 17 before the
positive news on lowered stamp tax was released.) As to real
estate, debates on whether the market has reached its right price
range under the government control as well as the promotional
campaigns by some major real estate developers in selling their
houses have had certain impacts on consumers' judgment on their
house buying decisions. Quite a number of consumers believed that
they should buy at this point when the house prices were getting
lower. And as the hot season for real estate approaches, sentiment
on house buying in one year's time rose again in April after a rise
in March, while sentiment on house selling kept the falling,
pushing the overall consumer sentiment on real estate investment in
April to reach a record high since the baseline survey in April
2007. In terms of major cities, consumer sentiment in April
rebounded in Shanghai, yet fell in both Beijing and Guangzhou,
showing a contrary trend to that in March. Sentiment among Beijing
consumers went down 3.5 points to 95.2, with both current
conditions and future expectations falling. The fall was mainly due
to a sharp drop in current personal finances and one-year outlook
on personal finances, especially the former. The other three
components, however, remained basically unchanged. Sentiment among
Shanghai consumers rebounded 2.9 points in April to 94.1, a level
close to that in January, ending the bad luck of being the lowest
reading among the three major cities in the previous four months in
a row. Current conditions fell further, yet future expectations
rose by a full 6.1 points, with all three components rising,
especially in the mid-long term business outlook. Consumer
sentiment in Guangzhou plunged a full 8 points in April to reach as
low as 88.3. Both current conditions and future expectations fell
sharply, with all five components of the confidence index falling
and one-year business outlook hitting a new low in the city's
survey history. Consumer Voices: -- I believe in the betterment of
the government policies. It is only that some of the policies have
not been well implemented. When they are I believe we will have a
better life. -- Our salary increases are behind the CPI increases.
We are receiving less and spending more. Life today is not as good
as it was yesterday. Even the Premier was saying that this would be
a hard year. -- Today's house prices are not affordable to the
average people. Yet in the years to come there won't be as large
demand for the real estate, since there will be more houses and
less rapidly growing population. If the government really does its
job to control the real estate market they should be able to do it
easily. Therefore, it's still a matter of government policies. To
find more about CCCI or subscribe to a full version of the survey,
please contact us via Methodology Xinhua Finance eziData China
Consumer Confidence Index is produced in association with Dr.
Richard Curtin, Research Professor and Director of the Consumer
Sentiment Surveys at the Institute of Social Research, University
of Michigan. The index is based on a monthly survey of around 1,500
Chinese households via stratified random sampling in 50
representative cities across East, Middle and West China using the
same methodology as is used by the University of Michigan. All data
is collected via computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).
Index of April 2007 survey is set as the benchmark (100). Notes to
editors: About Xinhua Finance Limited Xinhua Finance Limited
("XFL") is China's premier financial information and media service
provider and is listed on the Mothers Board of the Tokyo Stock
Exchange (symbol: 9399) (OTC ADRs: XHFNY). Bridging China's
financial markets and the world, Xinhua Finance's proprietary
content platform, comprising Indices, Ratings, Financial News, and
Investor Relations, serves financial institutions, corporations and
re-distributors worldwide. Through its subsidiary Xinhua Finance
Media Limited (NASDAQ:XFML), XFL leverages its content across
multiple distribution channels in China including television,
radio, newspaper, magazine and outdoor media. Founded in November
1999, XFL is headquartered in Shanghai, with offices and news
bureaus spanning 11 countries worldwide. For more information,
please visit http://www.xinhuafinance.com/ . About eziData eziData
is a local provider of China consumer data, serving both financial
and consumer market participants. It aims to serve global and local
business professionals with decision-making tools that relate to
consumption in China and conform to international standards.
eziData's comprehensive portfolio of high-quality consumer data
products, which includes a structured real-time databank, delivers
a broader and more insightful view of the market. For more
information, please visit http://www.ezidata.com/ . For further
information Xinhua Finance China: Ms Joy Tsang Tel:
+86-21-6113-5999 or +86-136-2179-1577 Email: Mr. Scott Zhang Tel:
+86-21-6113-5996 Email: DATASOURCE: Xinhua Finance CONTACT: Ms Joy
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