March Consumer Confidence Rebounds, Encouraged by the National People's Congress and Political Consultative Conference
March 25 2008 - 11:13PM
PR Newswire (US)
SHANGHAI, China, March 25 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Xinhua Finance
eziData China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was updated today,
with the survey results showing that, despite of the negative
influence of the high rising prices and falling stock market,
Chinese consumer confidence rebounded by 0.5 point in March to
96.3, led by a rise in the future expectations encouraged by the
recently held National People's Congress (NPC) and National
People's Political Consultative Conference (NPPCC). (Logo:
http://www.xprn.com/xprn/sa/200611140926.gif ) For a graphical
illustration of Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence
Index, please refer to
http://www.xinhuafinance.com/en/charts/indicator/ccci/ccci0803_en.jpg
. Although the negative effect of the snow-storms in February
started to fade away in March, the double pressure of rising
general prices and a drastically falling stock market dragged down
the current conditions index by another 0.5 point. On the other
hand, encouraged by the recent political events (the NPC and
NPPCC), consumer expectations ended the continuously falling trend
seen since July 2007 and rebounded by 0.9 point. And for the first
time in the survey history since April 2007, all three components
of the future expectations index rose, namely, one-year personal
finances, one-year business outlook, and five-year business
outlook. Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua
Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced monthly
by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data, and in
association with Dr. Richard Curtin. Dr. Curtin is Research
Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the
University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research. The survey
this month was conducted through 1,534 telephone interviews from
March 1 to 15, 2008. April 2007 survey results are set as the
benchmark value of 100. More on the survey methodology can be found
in the accompanying section. The stock market fall in the last two
months has affected the current investment returns and future
expectations of the investors, causing a drop in the stock
investment confidence that hit a new low since the baseline survey
in April 2007. However, it is worth noting that, compared to the
drastic fall in the stock index, the fall in the investors'
confidence was far from being in proportion, indicating a more
stable future outlook among this part of the consumers. As leading
real estate developers started claiming to lower the house price,
debates on whether the real estate market had reached a turning
point became heated, exerting influence on the decision making of
the consumers. Many consumers started to consider buying a house
while the price lowered, pushing the sentiment on house buying
intentions in one year's time up again to get back to the January
level, after a drop in February. On The other hand, consumer
sentiment on house selling a year from now kept inching down,
showing a strong wait-and-see stance on the part of the house
sellers. Consumer sentiment in March kept falling in Shanghai, yet
rebounded in both Beijing and Guangzhou. Sentiment among Beijing
consumers rebounded 2.4 points to 98.7, with both current
conditions and future expectations rising. Apparent rebounds were
seen in current personal finances, one-year personal finances and
five-year business outlook. Sentiment among Shanghai consumers
remained the lowest among the three major cities for the fourth
month in a row, falling 1.6 points in March to 91.2. Both current
conditions and future expectations fell. Consumer sentiment in
Guangzhou, however, rebounded 2.8 points to 96.3 after a 4.5-point
plunge in February. Both current conditions and future expectations
improved. Among the five components which constitute the confidence
index, four of them (current personal finances, durable purchase
plans, one-year personal finances, and five-year business outlook)
showed considerable rebound except for one-year outlook on business
conditions, which went up a slight 0.8 point. As to whether
consumer confidence will go further up or decline again in the next
few months, eziData Chief Analyst Dr. Wintone Zhang said that it
would depend very much on the trend shown in April. According to
Dr. Zhang, if general prices stabilize and the stock market
rebounds in April, then it would be very likely that consume
confidence would keep rising. However, if confidence in April falls
again, then it would probably be suggesting that China consumer
confidence would fall again for the next few months. Consumer
Voices: -- The general climate has come into being for China to
develop in a sustainable way. The government has made a lot of
investment in the infrastructure, and I'm sure the economy will
grow steadily in the future. -- The topic of people's life is a key
focus of the recent congress and conference, and a lot of
suggestions have been proposed to better it. We are all supportive
of the constructive measures proposed. It would be great if our
salary could grow together with the GDP and prices. -- The fall of
the land prices will directly affect the house prices, especially
for those in the city center. Right now more and more houses are
being built and the government is issuing policies to dampen the
real estate market. I might as well wait for the house price to go
down before buying one. To find more about CCCI or subscribe to a
full version of the survey, please contact us via . Methodology
Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced
in association with Dr. Richard Curtin, Research Professor and
Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the Institute of
Social Research, University of Michigan. The index is based on a
monthly survey of around 1,500 Chinese households via stratified
random sampling in 50 representative cities across East, Middle and
West China using the same methodology as is used by the University
of Michigan. All data is collected via computer assisted telephone
interviewing (CATI). Index of April 2007 survey is set as the
benchmark (100). Notes to editors: About Xinhua Finance Limited
Xinhua Finance Limited ("XFL") is China's premier financial
information and media service provider and is listed on the Mothers
Board of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (symbol: 9399) (OTC ADRs: XHFNY).
Bridging China's financial markets and the world, Xinhua Finance's
proprietary content platform, comprising Indices, Ratings,
Financial News, and Investor Relations, serves financial
institutions, corporations and re-distributors worldwide. Through
its subsidiary Xinhua Finance Media Limited (NASDAQ:XFML), XFL
leverages its content across multiple distribution channels in
China including television, radio, newspaper, magazine and outdoor
media. Founded in November 1999, XFL is headquartered in Shanghai,
with offices and news bureaus spanning 11 countries worldwide. For
more information, please visit http://www.xinhuafinance.com/ .
About eziData eziData is a local provider of China consumer data,
serving both financial and consumer market participants. It aims to
serve global and local business professionals with decision-making
tools that relate to consumption in China and conform to
international standards. eziData's comprehensive portfolio of
high-quality consumer data products, which includes a structured
real-time databank, delivers a broader and more insightful view of
the market. For more information, please visit
http://www.ezidata.com/ . For further information Xinhua Finance
China: Ms Joy Tsang Tel: +86-21-6113-5999, +86-136-2179-1577 Email:
Mr. Scott Zhang Tel: +86-21-6113-5996 Email: DATASOURCE: Xinhua
Finance Limited; eziData CONTACT: Xinhua Finance China: Ms Joy
Tsang, +86-21-6113-5999, or +86- 136-2179-1577, ; or Mr. Scott
Zhang, +86-21-6113- 5996, or Web Site:
http://www.xinhuafinance.com/
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