EDISON EQUITY RESEARCH: GW PHARMACEUTICALS: ADR OUTLOOK - 2016: A TRANSFORMATIVE YEAR
February 25 2016 - 8:40AM
InvestorsHub NewsWire
EDISON EQUITY RESEARCH: GW PHARMACEUTICALS: ADR OUTLOOK -
2016: A TRANSFORMATIVE YEAR
With four Phase III trials of Epidiolex (cannabidiol, or CBD) in
various forms of pediatric epilepsy, two for Dravet syndrome and
two for Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) expected to provide top-line
readouts in 2016 (three in H116), investors are understandably
laser focused on these programs. Based on an analysis of the
previous results of other molecules in Dravet and LGS, as well as
data from the expanded access program, we are confident the trials
are sufficiently powered to demonstrate a statistically significant
benefit for patients taking Epidiolex.
Our valuation is now $2.04bn or $93.64/share (vs $1.83bn,
$92.41/share) after increasing the probability of success for
Epidiolex in Dravet and LGS to 70% from 50%, for schizophrenia to
25% from 20% and adding TSC and IV GWP42003 for NHIE to our model.
This was mitigated by the removal of estimates for Sativex for
cancer pain and GWP42003 for ulcerative colitis due to the failure
of the programs.
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