U.S. Sanctions Squeeze Russia's Bonds Despite Economic Strength
April 19 2021 - 8:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Matt Wirz
Russia's markets reacted modestly to U.S. sanctions last week,
but the country's bonds have been weakening for months, indicating
that for investors, geopolitical pressure is outweighing the
country's economic strength.
The sanctions announced April 15 bars U.S. banks and
institutional investors from buying new Russian government
ruble-denominated bonds at auction. The response to Russia's
alleged cyberattacks and election interference is part of a broader
strategy by the Biden administration to pressure Russia
financially. The U.S. in March released an intelligence report on
the alleged election meddling and has stepped up trade sanctions
for Russia's alleged use of chemical weapons.
The new measures stopped short of prohibiting purchases of
Russian government bonds in the open market, a step investors and
analysts said would have had a much greater chilling effect. Still,
the diplomatic campaign has coincided with an increase in Russian
bond yields and a relatively modest decline in the ruble, boosting
the Russian government's funding costs.
The deterioration of Russia's bonds and its currency bucked the
expectations of some Wall Street banks, which had predicted that
Russia's strong balance sheet would help it outperform other
emerging-market countries in 2021. Russia had low net debt relative
to its gross domestic product, according to data from S&P
Global Ratings, and analysts took comfort in the government's
commitment to conservative fiscal policy.
"The only reason any of the bonds trade with a risk premium is
because of the risk of sanctions and the possibility they'll
escalate from here, " said Grant Webster, a portfolio manager who
helps invest about $4.5 billion in emerging-market debt at Ninety
One PLC. One of the mutual funds Mr. Webster co-manages reduced its
allocation to Russian government bonds to 3.65% in February from
4.54% in January, according to data from Morningstar Inc.
The yield on Russia's 10-year government debt was just above 7%
last week, relatively unchanged from before the new sanctions but
about 1.1 percentage points higher than at the start of the year,
according to data from FactSet. The rise in short-term rates has
been more pronounced, with the two-year yield hovering around
5.49%, compared with approximately 4.42% at the end of December. A
spokesperson for the Russian finance ministry couldn't be reached
for comment.
Russia has slid to the 18th-largest component of a widely
followed BlackRock Inc. exchange-traded fund invested in
emerging-market local-currency bonds, from fifth in October,
according to marketing materials for the fund.
Demand for the ruble might be waning as a result of the
sanctions. Heightened risk in Russia could have prompted investors
to sell the currency last week to buy the South African rand,
according to research by Morgan Stanley. Analysts at the bank
changed their recommendation on Russian interest-rate trades to
"neutral" from "like" based on expectations of a rate increase
later this month.
Investment banks were bullish on Russia coming into 2021, in
large part because of actions its government had taken to defend
against financial pressure from the U.S. and Europe. Bank of
America ranked Russia as the best of the big emerging-market
countries in a December report, citing its "large positive net
foreign assets, the lowest public debt, a small fiscal deficit and
even a current account surplus -- despite low oil prices."
Oil is Russia's biggest export, and the price of Brent crude has
risen about 29% this year. Yet the country's bonds have
underperformed. That is primarily because of potential U.S.
sanctions, said Tim Ash, a bond strategist at London-based
investment firm BlueBay Asset Management. The new restrictions set
the stage for a further ban on U.S. institutions' trading Russian
debt in secondary markets if tension between Moscow and Washington
intensifies, he said.
"You have to expect more sanctions," he said.
The U.S. has gradually restricted investors' trading in Russian
debt. The Trump administration imposed sanctions in 2018 barring
U.S. entities from buying debt of some companies and individuals
with ties to the Kremlin in retaliation for alleged election
interference and hacking. The following year the ban was expanded
to purchases of new Russian government bonds issued in foreign
currencies, such as the dollar or euro.
The next step would be to start limiting trading of existing
debt, Mr. Webster said. "I don't think chances of that are very
high right now, but it's totally still on the table," he said.
"They have started drawing the dots, and that's the next dot."
Write to Matt Wirz at matthieu.wirz@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 19, 2021 08:14 ET (12:14 GMT)
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