DALLAS, Jan. 3, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in October to 140.4.
October's index reading was 45 points, or 47 percent, above the
index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 135.2 points for all
of 2018, 6.3 points above the average for 2017. September's index
reading was revised to 139.7.
The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index improved again
in October, after rebounding in September. The Texas Index has not
experienced a back-to-back monthly decline since May and June of
2017. The results of the nine components of the Texas Index were
mixed in October. The four positive components were nonfarm
employment, housing starts, house prices and state sales tax
revenue. The five negative components in October were unemployment
insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity demand,
drilling rig count, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The
Texas rig count has been on a
declining trend since mid-2018. The most recent weekly rig count
data, through December, offers hope that the decline in drilling
activity slowed down at year end. Stability, and firmer
prices, in the oil patch will be a positive for the
Texas manufacturing sector. The
now-resolved 6-week-long GM/UAW strike also weighed on the
Texas manufacturing sector this
fall. The most recent manufacturing survey by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas shows that
statewide manufacturing activity conditions improved in December.
The expected signing of the Phase 1 trade deal with China is also positive news for Texas, as well as the passage of the USMCA
trade deal in the House of Representatives. We expect the Senate to
ratify the USMCA early this year, but there is no date set for the
vote at this time.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank