On estimated volume of 1.4 million units, May new vehicle
sales are expected to be up moderately from both the year-ago and
month-prior result, but market seems devoid of any sustained
momentum.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., May 29, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects new U.S. light
vehicle sales volume in May 2024 to
reach 1.4 million units. This unadjusted volume total would
be up approximately 3% from the year-ago total, and up 7% from the
April 2024 result. The estimated May
sales total would translate to a sales pace of 15.6 million units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR). When viewed on a
three-month moving average basis, the month SAAR metric has been
trending sideways since the third quarter of 2023.
Light vehicle production volume
continues to churn, hinting at sustained growth for inventories and
incentives
"Given the auto consumer affordability headwinds of vehicle
prices remaining high, mixed with high interest rates, there's been
limited momentum in regard to the pace of auto sales levels over
the past three quarters," said Chris
Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While
incentives and inventory levels, two potential forces to combat
some of the new vehicle affordability concerns, have continued to
develop over the same time frame, a potentially constrained
consumer continues to dictate monthly sales levels, with downside
risks to rest of year sales volumes beginning to emerge."
Light vehicle production volume continues to churn, hinting at
sustained growth for inventories and incentives moving through the
rest of 2024, although like sales, growth levels for inventories
are settling also. According to Matt
Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility,
"Analysis of April retail advertised inventory data in the
U.S. finds that inventory is still on the rise, with electric
vehicle (EV) inventory growing faster than the overall industry.
Available retail advertised inventory at the end of April rose to
2.77 million vehicles, up 1.3% compared to March and 57% over last
April. This is the 11th consecutive month of increases (22 of the
last 24 months have grown vs. the prior month), but the rate of
increase is the lowest since July
2023."
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
May 24
(Est)
|
Apr
24
|
May
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,402,000
|
1,313,512
|
1,363,818
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.6
|
15.7
|
15.5
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.6
|
12.7
|
12.3
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. May BEV share is expected
to reach 7.6%, similar to the month prior reading and an
advancement from the Q1 2024 results. BEV share is expected to
advance over the next several periods though, pending the roll outs
of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and
Fiat 500e, all scheduled for roll outs over the next few months,
followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID.
Buzz slated for release in the second half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-global-mobility-may-us-auto-sales-to-progress-mildly-302158070.html
SOURCE S&P Global Mobility