The impact of the July 4
weekend sales events, Ford Mach-E inventory numbers climbing past
ICE SUVs, and the looming Compact SUV dogfight in the US
market.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., July 25,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Dealer advertised inventories in
the US took an expected dip following the July 4 weekend, but have quickly recovered,
according to new analysis from S&P Global
Mobility.
Dealer advertised inventories in the US
took an expected dip following the July
4 weekend, but have quickly recovered
And while July 4 sales events
received their typical promotions, the pattern for the long weekend
was consistent to recent months-end in terms of sold inventory. The
July 4 weekend also represented a
trifecta of the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a
holiday.
But while the long weekend took a chunk out of available
advertised inventories – from 1.843 million in mid-June to 1.761
million on July 3, perhaps more
notable is that available inventories almost immediately leaped
ahead to 1.867 million by mid-July, surpassing the year-to-date
highs seen in mid-June.
Ford Mach-E inventories climbing past ICE SUVs
You can tell an automaker is serious about electric vehicles
when advertised inventories climb to the equivalent level of its
better-selling internal-combustion vehicles.
That is now happening with Ford SUVs, as inventories grow for
the Ford Mustang Mach-E. In December, the Mach-E had the lowest
advertised inventory count of any Ford SUV. As of early July,
however, Ford dealers are now advertising more available Mach-E
volume (14,363 units) than those of EcoSport, Bronco, Edge, and
now, even Escape. Only the Explorer and Bronco Sport have more
advertised units available.
Whether production is ramping up to meet anticipated demand, or
whether there is sufficient demand to reduce inventories, remains
to be seen. Year-to-date through June, Ford sold 14,040 units of
the Mach-E, according to company reports, although inventories were
constrained through the first quarter, and the sales pace has
recently accelerated. By contrast, Ford has sold 64,839 Escapes
over that period.
Non-Tesla EV inventories plateauing?
While Mach-E inventories are surging, most other EVs appear to
be growing as well, but not at the same rate. Total advertised EV
inventories reached 108,000 units in early July, up about 10,000
units from early June.
The other mainstream EV chasing volume is the Volkswagen ID.4;
with about 12,000 units of advertised inventory (VW sold 6,690
units in 2Q 2023, but, again, with constrained inventories). The
third-most advertised inventory is from the Hyundai Ioniq 5,
although after an early-year surge of inventory through April,
advertised stock appears to have flattened into a predictable
wavelet pattern. The Kia EV6 shows a similar trend to the Hyundai –
albeit at much lower volumes. The only EV showing a significant
tapering of inventories is the Volvo C40.
Geographically, most of the industry EV inventory resides in the
following DMAs: Los Angeles,
San Francisco, New York City, Seattle, and Washington DC.
EV inventories passing Hybrids?
A true measure of EV penetration is comparing advertised
inventory volumes against Hybrid Gas-Electric
vehicles.
Nationally, even as inventories of all vehicles have grown,
there has been a consistent gap of about 35,000 to 40,000 units of
Hybrids compared to EVs – as of inventory levels on July 10 there were 148,761 Hybrids to 107,514
EVs. However, California saw a
landmark event in May, as EV advertised inventories passed Hybrids,
and have held steady: 30,914 EVs compared to 27,316 Hybrids as of
July 10.
Early-July numbers show a sharp spike in growth of Hybrid
inventories both nationally and in California – although whether that is a result
of consumers choosing EVs over Hybrids, or an uptick in new Hybrid
production to meet anticipated demand, has yet to be
determined.
Toyota rejoins the Compact SUV fight
The most competitive segment in the industry involves mainstream
Compact SUVs, and a dogfight looks to be emerging through the
summer months as the traditional sales leader appears to have
regained its inventory footing.
The Toyota RAV4 has been the best-selling passenger vehicle in
the US since 2017. But pandemic-related supplier shortages crunched
Toyota inventories, resulting in a 6.9% year-over-year sales
decline for RAV4 through June.
As recently as April, Toyota had fewer RAV4s on the ground
compared to Jeep Wrangler, Nissan Rogue, and Mazda CX-5. That tide
is now turning, as RAV4 inventories have soared in late June and
early July – just in time for the summer selling season – now
reaching nearly 40,000 advertised units. Meanwhile, the RAV4's
closest rival, the Honda CR-V, saw inventories dip sharply below
15,000 units in late June before seeing a slight jump in early
July.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Editor's Notes: S&P Global Mobility
calculates advertised inventories both by total inventories – which
includes some vehicles that have already been sold but are still
advertised by dealers – as well as by available inventories that
have not had their registrations punched, which is a slightly lower
number.
Additionally, our July US Sales preview can be
found here for reference.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility