Kinder Morgan Falls Shy of Estimate - Analyst Blog
October 20 2011 - 9:45AM
Zacks
Kinder Morgan Energy
Partners L.P.’s (KMP) third quarter 2011 earnings of 44
cents per limited partner unit (excluding certain items) fell short
of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. However, the quarterly
results were significantly above the year-ago profit of 23
cents.
Revenue increased approximately
6.6% to $2,195.1 million in the quarter from $2,060.0 million in
the year-ago quarter.
Importantly, quarterly cash
distribution per common unit was raised to $1.16 ($4.64
annualized), representing a 5% year-over-year growth. The
partnership has now increased the quarterly distribution 42 times
since its current management took over in February 1997.
Kinder Morgan expects its annual
distribution to exceed the previously announced $4.60 per unit
level, fueled by outstanding growth opportunities in the midstream
energy sector, with more emphasis in the natural gas shale plays as
well as in the coal export business.
The partnership’s distributable
cash flow –– a measure of its ability to make unitholders’ payments
–– before certain items was $394.1 million versus $317.9 million in
the comparable quarter last year. Additionally, distributable cash
flow per unit before certain items was $1.19, up 16.7% year over
year.
Segmental
Highlights
Products
Pipelines: The business segment experienced a 4%
year-over-year increase in its earnings before DD&A and certain
items to $177.9 million, due to higher volumes on the Cochin
pipeline system owing to the surge in demand for both terminal and
storage deliveries. However, total refined products volume was
167.0 million barrels, down 0.4% from the prior-year period.
The partnership expects the
segment’s annual growth rate to come in below 6%.
Natural Gas
Pipelines: Earnings before DD&A
and certain items from the business experienced an impressive 31%
year-over-year growth to $248.0 million. Performance was aided by
the KinderHawk joint venture in the Haynesville Shale along with
robust results in Midcontinent Express Pipeline, Casper-Douglas
processing margins, Fayetteville Express Pipeline and superior
results from the Texas intrastate pipeline system.
Overall, transport volumes moved up
12% from the year-ago quarter, mainly attributable to the start-up
of the Fayetteville Express Pipeline system and solid transport
volumes on the Texas intrastate pipeline system.
Kinder Morgan anticipates the
segment’s annual growth to be considerably above the budgeted 8%
due to the acquisition of assets from Petrohawk.
CO2: The
segment’s earnings before DD&A and certain items were $286.3
million, up 25% year over year on higher oil and natural gas liquid
prices. The partnership expects the segment’s annual growth rate to
remain close to the budgeted14%.
Terminals: The business segment earned
$180.4 million before DD&A and certain items in the third
quarter, up 10% year over year and the annual growth rate is
expected to come in slightly below the budgeted10%.
Kinder Morgan
Canada: The segment reported third-quarter earnings
of $48.5 million before DD&A and certain items compared with
$44.0 million in the year-ago quarter. The income growth was
supported by a new toll agreement on the Trans Mountain pipeline
and appreciation of the Canadian dollar.
The partnership currently expects
the segment’s growth rate to come in above the budgeted 6% for
2011.
Financials
As of September 30, 2011, Kinder
Morgan had cash and cash equivalents of $271 million and long-term
debt (including current maturities) of $12,507 million.
Debt-to-capitalization ratio stood at 61.8% (versus 59.7% in the
last quarter).
Our Take
Kinder Morgan is one of the largest
publicly traded master limited partnerships (MLP) and generally
serves as a benchmark for the pipeline MLP group. A focus on
fee-based and diversified businesses has enabled the partnership to
dilute its business risks.
We appreciate the partnership’s
attempt to expand its resource base. Earlier this week, the
partnership’s parent company Kinder Morgan Inc.
(KMI) announced plans to acquire El Paso Corp.
(EP) to create the largest natural gas pipeline system in North
America. The purchase price, including El Paso’s $17 billion
outstanding debt, stands at $38 billion. With a large trail of
assets in North America, the partnership remains well positioned
for future growth.
The Kinder Morgan-El Paso deal will
enhance steady cash flow generation and promise growth for Kinder
Morgan Energy Partners, which plans to acquire a significant
portion of EL Paso’s natural gas pipeline assets over the next few
years at attractive prices. For some several years to come, the
average annual growth rate in KMP distributions per unit is
expected at around 7%, up 5% annually from the prior estimate on
the back of likely dropdowns from this transaction. The deal is
also expected to dilute the impact of the partnership’s CO2 oil
business and offset a potential slowdown in demand of the refined
products.
However, Kinder Morgan remains
vulnerable to volatile crude oil and natural gas prices, imbalance
between supply and demand for its products, and rising interest
rates. As such, we expect the partnership to perform in line with
the broader industry and rate it Neutral on a long-term basis.
Kinder Morgan currently holds a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term ‘Hold’
rating).
EL PASO CORP (EP): Free Stock Analysis Report
KINDER MORGAN (KMI): Free Stock Analysis Report
KINDER MORG ENG (KMP): Free Stock Analysis Report
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