CNO Financial Stays 'Neutral' - Analyst Blog
December 15 2011 - 6:15AM
Zacks
We have reiterated our Neutral recommendation on CNO
Financial Group Inc. (CNO) based on the lack of significant
earnings growth momentum.
CNO Financial reported its third-quarter 2011 operating earnings
of 17 cents per share, at par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but
beating the year-ago earnings by a penny.
The company’s strategies of cost reduction and divestiture of
non-core business units to focus on the core business have translated
into consistent profitability and capital growth, leading to
healthy financial ratings. In November 2011, A.M. Best affirmed the
issuer credit and financial strength ratings of all of CNO’s
subsidiaries.
Additionally, the rating agency affirmed the debt rating of the
company’s various outstanding 7.0% senior unsecured convertible
debentures, due 2016 and 9.0% senior secured notes, due 2018. All
the ratings reflect a stable outlook, showcasing the company’s
modest claims-paying ability along with its risk-absorbing
capacity.
Moreover, the amendment of the company’s senior secured credit
facility reduced the annual interest rates, thereby increasing
financial flexibility. Moreover, CNO’s debt-to-capital ratio of 18%
is substantially lower than the maximum of 30% acceptable under its
banking facility covenant.
The cash position of CNO Financial has also strengthened over
the years due to substantial growth in cash flows from operating
and financing activities. Moreover, the consolidated statutory
risk-based capital ratio of CNO Financial’s insurance subsidiaries
improved to 359% in the third quarter of 2011, driven by enhanced
asset quality and high statutory earnings.
The book
value of the company has improved to $17.89 per share as of
September 30, 2011 from $16.28 at the end of 2010. Moreover,
the value of CNO Financial’s investment portfolio is steadily
increasing. It escalated to $25.84 billion at the end of September
2011 from $23.78 billion in 2010, $21.53 billion in 2009 and $18.65
billion in 2008.
However, the results for the last few quarters show that CNO
Financial continues to face underwriting and pricing challenges in
the long-term care business. The current interest rate environment,
which is generating spread compression, will continue to put
pressure on the bottom line.
Additionally, CNO Financial has a risky business profile with
about $269 million balance outstanding under its senior secured
credit agreement as on September 30, 2011. Also, the company has to
make high principal and interest payments on its outstanding
indebtedness.
Further, the top-line performance of the Bankers’ Life segment
has been deteriorating over the years. The reduced earnings from
annuities and health products are mainly responsible for the
weakening performance of the segment.
Thus, considering all the pros and cons, we expect CNO Financial
to trade in line with its peer group.The Zacks Consensus Estimate
for the fourth-quarter 2011 earnings is currently 19 cents per
share, up 2.8% year over year. For full year 2011, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate stands at 74 cents per share, up 13.5% from
2010.
CNO Financial competes with AFLAC Inc. (AFL)
and Torchmark Corp. (TMK). Currently, the company
carries a Zacks #3 Rank, which translates into a short- term Hold
rating, indicating no clear directional pressure on the shares over
the near term.
AFLAC INC (AFL): Free Stock Analysis Report
CNO FINL GRP (CNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
TORCHMARK CORP (TMK): Free Stock Analysis Report
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