Earnings Preview: AutoZone Inc. - Analyst Blog
December 02 2011 - 11:41AM
Zacks
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) expects to release its
first quarter 2012, ended November 19, 2011, on December 06, 2011
before the opening bell. Memphis, Tennessee-based AutoZone earned a
profit of $7.18 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, beating the
Zacks Consensus Estimates of $6.98 per share.
For the upcoming quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for
AutoZone is pegged at $4.45 per share, reflecting an annualized
growth of 18%. There is no upside potential for the estimate.
With respect to earnings surprises, the company outdid the Zacks
Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters. This is reflected
in the average earnings surprise of 6.39%, implying that the
company has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the
four quarters.
Fourth Quarter Recap
Net sales grew 8.1% to $2.64 billion, exceeding the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $2.61 billion. Domestic same-store sales
(sales for stores open at least one year) rose 4.5% during the
quarter.
Gross margin was 51.2% compared with 50.5% in the year-ago
quarter. The increase in gross margin was attributable to lower
shrink expense and higher merchandise margins. The increase in
merchandise margins was driven by retail price increases on
commodity-based products, which were partially offset by higher
commercial sales.
Operating profit rose 11% to $524.0 million from $472.7 million
in the prior year. This translated into an operating margin of
19.8% versus 19.3% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010.
Operating expenses, as a percentage of sales, increased to 31.4%
from 31.2% last year due to higher self-insurance costs and higher
fuel costs, partially offset by leverage due to higher sales
volumes.
During the quarter, AutoZone opened 68 new stores, replaced five
stores, and closed one store in the U.S. and opened 18 new stores
in Mexico. As of August 27, 2011, the company had 4,534 stores in
48 states, as well as in the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico
in the U.S. and 279 stores in Mexico.
Estimate Revisions Trend
Earnings estimate for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 is
currently pegged at a profit of $4.45 per share. The improving auto
industry and the strong performance of the company in the last
reported quarter have made the analysts optimistic about its future
financial results.
Agreement of Estimate Revisions
Out of the 18 analysts covering the stock for the first quarter
of fiscal 2011, none revised the estimates in the past 30 days.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
Following the fourth quarter earnings release in September,
first quarter 2012 profit per share was projected at $4.35.
However, over the last 60 days, the profit estimate increased to
$4.44 cents per share. Later, the estimate went up to $4.45 per
share in the last 30 days and remained the same since then.
Our Take
AutoZone is focused on expansion of its Hub store, acceleration
of store maintenance and strengthening of its commercial sales
force. Besides, its aggressive share repurchase policy supported by
a strong cash flow is also mention worthy.
However, AutoZone relies heavily on its private label brands,
which could hinder its business should they falter. Vendor
consolidation and appreciation in gas prices coupled with fierce
competition from O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)
and Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP), both of which
have delivered impressive results during their last reported
quarters, are primary headwinds for the company.
Hence, we have reiterated our long-term Neutral recommendation
on the shares of the company.
ADVANCE AUTO PT (AAP): Free Stock Analysis Report
AUTOZONE INC (AZO): Free Stock Analysis Report
O REILLY AUTO (ORLY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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