Few Americans Believe Handing Over Sovereignty to New Iraqi Government Will Achieve Positive Results
July 22 2004 - 1:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
Few Americans Believe Handing Over Sovereignty to New Iraqi
Government Will Achieve Positive Results Only small minorities see
it leading to free, democratic government, spreading freedom and
democracy in the Middle East, reducing attacks on U.S. troops or
enabling most U.S. troops to leave in next year ROCHESTER, N.Y.,
July 22 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that only a small
minority of the public believes that the handing over of
sovereignty to the new Iraqi government will achieve positive
results. Twenty percent believe it will "enable most U.S. troops to
leave Iraq in the next year." Eighteen percent think it will
"reduce the number of attacks on U.S. troops." Twenty-nine percent
believe it will "lead to a reasonably free and democratic system of
government in Iraq," and 22 percent believe it will "be a model
which will spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East." These
are some of the findings of an online survey of 2,242 adults
conducted by Harris Interactive(R) between July 12 and 16, 2004.
The survey also finds that on several key indicators the public's
confidence in the administration and its policies on Iraq has
fallen to its lowest levels yet, although the numbers are only
marginally worse than they were in June. Specifically: * 39% of the
public now rate the president's handling of Iraq positively,
compared to 41% in June, 49% in March (and a high of 67% in April
2003). * Only 43% of the public now believes that taking military
action in Iraq was the right thing to do compared to 44% in June,
47% in May and 55% in January. However, 15% are not sure, leaving a
virtual tie between those who think it was the right thing (43%) or
the wrong thing (42%) to do. * Those who believe that the level of
U.S. casualties is "unfortunate but acceptable" have fallen to 38%,
compared to 40% in June, and a high of 51% in July 2003. The survey
also found that a 51 to 26 percent majority is not confident that
U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful, little changed from the
53 to 25 percent who felt this way in June; but this is lower than
the 55 to 25 percent majority in May. The only good news for the
government is modest. The 45 to 18 percent plurality that believes
the "situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting worse" is fewer
than the 49 to 19 percent who felt this way in May and not nearly
as many as the 65 to 11 percent majority who believed this to be
true in May. So what? This survey shows that handing over of
sovereignty to the new Iraqi government has done very little to
convince the American people of the success of U.S. policies there.
With each succeeding month, Iraq looks more and more like an
electoral liability for President Bush in this November's election.
The light at the end of the tunnel is dim. TABLE 1 THE LIKELY
IMPACT OF HANDING OVER SOVEREIGNTY TO NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT "The
United States and its allies have now handed over sovereignty to
the new Iraqi government. Do you feel that this will or will
not...? Base: All Adults Will Will Not Not Sure Lead to a
reasonably free and democratic system of government % 29 34 37 in
Iraq Be a model which will help % 22 44 34 spread freedom and
democracy in the Middle East Enable most U.S. troops to leave % 20
58 22 Iraq in the next year Reduce the number of attacks % 18 65 16
against the U.S. troops Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to
100% due to rounding. TABLE 2 RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING
OF IRAQ "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has
done in handling the issue of Iraq over the last several months?"
Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Mar. April May July Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb.
Mar. April May June July % % % % % % % % % % % % % Positive 56 67
63 49 47 41 51 48 49 43 42 41 39 (NET) Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15
20 23 18 15 13 13 15 Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26 31 26 31 29 29
27 24 Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58 46 51 49 55 56 58 58 Only
fair 16 15 18 22 19 19 20 19 19 18 18 19 17 Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38
26 32 30 37 39 39 40 Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 Note:
Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 3
CONFIDENT THAT U.S. POLICIES WILL BE SUCCESSFUL "How confident are
you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?" Base: All
Adults 2003 2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July % %
% % % % % % % Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 25 25 26 Not 46 51 45 48
46 52 55 53 51 confident Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 22 23 Note:
Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 4 WAS
MILITARY ACTION THE RIGHT THING TO DO? "Thinking about everything
that has happened, do you think that taking military action against
Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?" Base: All Adults 2003
2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July % % % % % % % %
% Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 47 44 43 Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33
37 38 42 42 Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 14 14 15 Note: Percentages
may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 5 LEVEL OF CASUALTIES
ACCEPTABLE OR NOT? "Do you think that the level of U.S. casualties
in Iraq is...?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 July Sept. Nov. Jan.
Feb. March April May June July % % % % % % % % % % Unfortunate but
acceptable 51 47 44 44 43 44 42 41 40 38 Unacceptable 43 47 51 49
49 49 51 52 53 54 Not sure 6 6 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 8 Note: Percentages
may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 6 IS SITUATION FOR
U.S. TROOPS GETTING BETTER OR WORSE "Do you think that the
situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is...?" Base: All Adults Jan.
Feb. March April May June June July % % % % % % % % Getting better
24 22 24 9 11 19 19 18 Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 49 45 No
real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 26 30 Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 6 7 Note:
Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Methodology The
Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States
between July 12 and 16, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of
2,242 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race,
education, region and household income were weighted where
necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in
the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust
for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with
probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent
certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2
percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult
population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately,
there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or
surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical
calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be
interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order,
and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may
result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability
sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of
the National Council on Public Polls. W21662 Q501, Q510, Q515,
Q520, Q525, Q540 About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive
(http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide market research
and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for
pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate
market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, Harris
Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with
expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company
conducts international research from its U.S. offices and through
wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe
(http://www.hieurope.com/), Paris-based Novatris and Tokyo-based
Harris Interactive Japan-as well as through the Harris Interactive
Global Network of independent market- and opinion-research firms.
EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be
invited to participate in future online surveys, visit
http://www.harrispollonline.com/. Press Contact: Nancy Wong Harris
Interactive 585-214-7316 DATASOURCE: Harris Interactive CONTACT:
Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive, +1-585-214-7316, Web site:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ http://www.hieurope.com/
http://www.harrispollonline.com/
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