Plug Power Inc (PLUG) Quote

WTM - It's beginning to look pretty bleak when PLUG crashes after 2 BIG catalysts.

I'm worried about the "Q" and losing the Loan. Either one of these will push PLUG below $1.00.

BB - Really Old News !

New Rules for Clean Hydrogen Tax Credits https://www.investopedia.com/plug-power-stock-jumps-further-on-new-rules-for-clean-hydrogen-tax-credits-8769623 $PLUG

Sold half my shares, it'll probably go up now.

Uh Oh !

No Hydrogen Hubs !

No DOE DOUGH ?

Hello $1.00's .

Trump puts US clean hydrogen support schemes on hold as part of plan to terminate 'Green New Deal'
The new president signs executive order to 'immediately pause disbursement of funds appropriated' through the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
January 21, 2025
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/trump-puts-us-clean-hydrogen-support-schemes-on-hold-as-part-of-plan-to-terminate-green-new-deal/2-1-1767401

A Bob Lutz type.  But you will never get a top tier  leader to move to Latham or take on this Mess.

Who would be credible and a real possibility to manage PLUG?

mik - Not current management, but someone credible was in charge ...why not ?

Jb we know you dont believe anything from management.....I think you wouldnt believe anything from plug no matter whose in management...lol

mik - I don't believe anything Plug management says. They have been caught with too many lies.

Plug Power Wins Government Loan. CEO Is Confident About Trump Era.
By Avi Salzman Jan 17, 2025

Plug Power, the country’s largest producer of clean hydrogen, said it had received a $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the federal government on Thursday, as the government also finalized a $6.57 billion loan guarantee to the electric-vehicle maker Rivian.

The news comes just days before President Donald Trump takes office with plans to reduce support for clean energy companies. Vivek Ramaswamy, who will lead Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency along with Elon Musk, has said they will target these kinds of loans as they look to cut costs.

“Biden’s midnight spending spree is illegitimate & should be rescinded,” he wrote on X last month, after the Rivian loan guarantee was announced on a conditional basis.

Plug Power stock was down 6.2% in early Friday trading, It is up 29% this year after falling 53% last year.

In an interview with Barron’s, Plug Power CEO Andy Marsh said that he doesn’t think his loan will be clawed back by the Trump administration. “It is a contract with the government, which is pretty strong,” he said. “The best predictor of the future is often the past, and the Trump Administration didn’t claw back anything that was done at the Department of Energy” in his first term.

Marsh also thinks the Trump administration will be motivated to keep supporting hydrogen because of the jobs the business creates. The government loan will go toward building several facilities to make clean hydrogen. The first one is planned for Texas.

“These projects are in very, very red districts,” he said. And hydrogen appeals to constituencies that might not love all kinds of green energy. “The oil and gas industry actually likes hydrogen,” he said.

Plug’s loan has also been challenged by Sen. John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, on the grounds that Jigar Shah, the head of the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, has a possible conflict of interest. Shah previously worked at Generate Capital, an investment company that had given Plug a loan.

In response, the Loan Programs Office said that Shah divested his holdings in Generate Capital, and that the loans are given out through a rigorous multistep process; the director can’t personally pick and choose the winners. Marsh said that loan approval involved a “very, very disciplined process with many, many steps – somebody wasn’t snapping a finger for me to make things happen.”

Hydrogen is used widely today in industrial applications in the U.S., including in the oil industry, but almost all of it is made using “dirty” processes involving natural gas. Plug is one of the few companies that is making a cleaner version that could be used to power vehicles and industrial applications.

In Rochester, New York, Plug makes equipment called electrolyzers that split water into hydrogen and oxygen. It owns factories in Georgia and Tennessee that use electrolyzers to make hydrogen and send it to companies.

Its customers include Amazon, Walmart and Home Depot. Hydrogen can be used to power machinery such as forklifts at warehouses.

Plug has faced serious financial difficulties in the past, and is still a money-losing enterprise. Demand for clean hydrogen, which is costlier to make than the dirty version, simply isn’t strong enough yet.

In 2023, Plug was losing so much money it issued a “going concern” notice that raised doubts about its ability to keep operating, but it resolved that going-concern issue last year. Analysts expect it to lose more than $500 million this year.

Marsh says that Plug has raised enough money to cover its cash needs, and expects to produce positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, by the second half of 2026. With a tax break worth as much as $3 per ton from the Inflation Reduction Act, he says clean hydrogen’s cost is now on par with the dirtier version. He also expects Plug’s government loan to serve as a seal of approval to other lenders.

Plug will be paying a below-market rate on its loan. It is getting a Department of Energy “loan guarantee” that also involves a direct loan from the government’s Federal Financing Bank.

The lending program gives borrowers an interest rate that is at a modest premium to Treasury rates, and is lower than they could get on the open market. Convertible debt that Plug issued in March at a 7% interest rate was recently trading at 97 cents on the dollar. Marsh said the rate on the government loan will be at most 6.5%.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-government-loan-clean-hydrogen-1f1279b8

I want to believe Andy but after listening to him the last few years i cant.. .Do you?
Andy and paul need to leave for the good of the company and shareholders...I don't care for sanjay either....Dean would bring fresh hope to wall street...JMO

Plug Power Wins Government Loan. CEO Is Confident About Trump Era.
Jan 17, 2025
https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-government-loan-clean-hydrogen-1f1279b8

I don't have access to the article, below is cup and paste from a post on Stocktwits.

CEO Marsh says that Plug has raised enough money to cover its cash needs, and expects to produce positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, by the second half of 2026. With a tax break worth as much as $3 per ton from the Inflation Reduction Act, he says clean hydrogen’s cost is now on par with the dirtier version. He also expects Plug’s government loan to serve as a seal of approval to other lenders.

Plug will be paying a below-market rate on its loan. It is getting a Department of Energy “loan guarantee” that also involves a direct loan from the government’s Federal Financing Bank.

WTM and others
There is no DOE loan, it is a guarantee so someone else can lend the company the money knowing they would get 80%back if the company fails.

Read the "award" notice and you will see there is a new Plug Power financing LLC. subsidiary who is the lending company.
So this subsidiary will be funding the projects starting with Texas and has to provide the cash as they draw it down, so only $100-200m to start.

Where does Plug Power financing LLc get this cash?  It could be from a third party, new investor which Andy and Paul keep talking about for what 3 years?
But initially it will be from PlugPowers own bank account. Either via the ATM or an equity sale as I mentioned earlier.

I think this realization (various plug staff gave details via Facebook accounts) was responsible for the last 0.10 drop.  The initial drop was shorts panicking as if people converted their ITM calls the shorts would have had to give up their shares.

Had the announcement been a week earlier I believe we would be around $3.00 even with an impending cash raise.

As long as this does not RS, I'm ok for now.  I just want through that with FCEl, can't stomach another one

KR3, thanks for sharing. I'm in a similar situation, with just over 50,000 shares, the most I've ever held in many years of investing in PLUG. I've been accumulating aggressively as of late, so my average cost is relatively low, near breakeven right now.

Btw.
This is me. I'm licking my wounds.

https://stocktwits.com/King_of_The_mountains/message/600612869

WTM -
Unfortunately, the DOE money is specifically given for 4 separate projects. Money can't be used for anything else.
I agree that company will reduce burning cash after receiving DOE loan since people will start working on those projects, unless company will hire more additional help, and we increase the loss.
Company will need to start releasing some positive news to give us something.

Weekly for you,
https://stocktwits.com/King_of_The_mountains/message/600611716

And monthly looks the best!
https://stocktwits.com/King_of_The_mountains/message/600611859

UK, KR3 and others, any thoughts on the following recent Stocktwits post by Girba. A glimmer of hope perhaps?

As B_B_ indicates " Maybe Plug can use the portion of the DOE loan allocated for the electrolyzers and liquefiers to cover their operating expenses, while additional private equity investors can cover the remaining plant costs. " ..

It is very logical that PLUG will use part of DOE money will allocate for the salaries of the people working in the factory construction (investment side) and office. Thus, the salary burden of the people in the office will be shifted to DOE. This will reduce PLUG's accounting (loss). PLUG will recover faster. It will not burn much money. As a result, the amount of ATMs will decrease significantly. Balance sheet will improve a lot. It may even turn into profit. This will please Wall-Street. It will attract more investors. Therefore, you can be ready for all kinds of positive surprises in 2025.

KR3, thank you for the very detailed, specific, and insightful posts.

https://stocktwits.com/King_of_The_mountains/message/600608709

No one has a clue, WTM! Even JB.
All longs were very disappointed from the reaction yesterday. I'm sure JB was very surprised as well. He mentioned to us here that he anticipated rise after DOE up to $5 and now we have only hope that it will go to $3
\
And you would like the chart analysis?
Here you go.
We are sitting now exactly on MA 200 at $2.43 (very big support). The next one is MA50 at $2.33
If we break those supports, then who knows how low we go.
My only explanation would be that the big manipulation happened yesterday to kill all puts/calls and on purpose they close PLUG below $2.50 mark. If we don't start moving up on Tuesday, then all dreams go to hell!
Later, I'll post chart on the other board, so you can see it here.
PS. Thank GOD that market is closed on Monday. We won't lose anything on that day!

UK, thanks. Any guesses as to what the share price will do based on your financial evaluation, and/or chart analysis? I'm asking as I don't have the slightest clue.

Banger - There WILL be MORE than One Big Raise ... There ALWAYS IS !

And MUCH MORE than your $400-500 million.

PLUG needs to raise at least $500 million before June just to keep the lights on. And probably a Billion more in order to meet their promises.

Plenty more raises to come ...

well we know the answer to all but the last one.
I always wonder why are they asking when the answers are out there often in official company news?

Did some research after your earlier post Jack.
Sounds like a $400-500m capital raise is imminent (may be on top of ATM activity?) to :
a) fund the finance subsidiary for Texas and Georgia projects
b) cover losses in 2025 and hopefully 2026.

one big raise then they can start benefitting from all the electrolyzer orders they have

From another board :

At some point shareholders will have to do some sums. 

Do earnings, including tax credits, cover loan repayments?

Is the loan guarantee 100% of the sum of the amount loaned? 

What percentage of the sum needed for plant development is covered by the loan amount?

What interest rate will be applied to any eventual loan? 

How much further dilution will be required to make up the shortfall?

Few on here are asking them, let alone answering, but the market seems to have drawn its own negative conclusions with a 10% drop on the news of increased debt liabilities and has clearly decided this news isn't as good as longs hoped.

You are right about that. It did not.
Hats off to you, Jack.
I hope you made some $$$ on this downside.

Steve - There is a difference in buying stock to bump up the share price for OPTICS.; and buying shares because you true believe that your company and your leadership make it the best investment you can make

So, showing support of your company is bad for management? So, with your logic they are all honest and outstanding moral people and that is why they never bought the stock in the option market because they knew it was garbage and going down the tank? I guess they do not have faith in the model or their ability then.

NO !  That would be wrong, deceitful and disingenuous.

Creating an illusion of strength when there is none will only create more victims.

Andy should buy shares to show confidence in the company.

KR3 - Your analysis has not aged very well.
PLUG Longs got hosed today.  A pure Pump and Dump.

Don't trust anyone who says "buy Plug" or things are fine.  

From another Board:

This is not complicated. It is just math. The market is a discounting mechanism. 45v and the DOE loan are good news. Don't let the shorts tell you otherwise. That said, the company is running out of money. Accordingly, the market is discounting an impending equity offering, the size of which will be in the 500-750 mio range. At a share price of 2:50, (aka no discount to current sp) using 500 mio on the lower end, you are talking about 20% dilution to existing shareholders. That is all you need to know. I don't know how long they can stretch their current cash (May?) but dilution is coming. It doesn't mean that 45V won't be a business catalyst. It doesn't mean that the loan for these new projects isn't good news. Taken in totality, today's action simply recognizes that the company is burning through an inordinate amount of cash and, with the good news now announced, it is turning its attention to what is next. namely the price at which said offering will clear. Not good. Not bad. Just math. 

H.C. Wainwright bullish on Plug Power shares citing $1.66B DoE loan closure
5h
https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hc-wainwright-bullish-on-plug-power-shares-citing-166b-doe-loan-closure-93CH-3818891

On Friday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal maintained a Buy rating and a price target of $5.00 on Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) shares. The endorsement follows Plug Power's recent announcement on January 16, 2025, that it had finalized a $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO).

MORE BAD NEWS !

We all thought that the 45 v and DOE Dough would be positive catalysts all the way to $5.00. And REALITY says, "NO, $2.50.

So the 45 v & e and the DOE Dough turned out to BIG NOTHINGS.

And Now for the BAD NEWS :

The Fourth Quarter is ANOTHER NEGATIVE. Sales, Revenues, Margins, Deals , Earnings will be below expectations, except for Losses.

Yet Another Quarterly Loss for Plug Shareholders.

I guess, BOYZ are killing off Option bets at $2.50.
We should see better price close to the end of day.

Banger - NOPE.

Just 2-3 projects. And what makes you think that Hydrogen end-users won't demand the $3.00 Credit Pass Through.

A wait until you here more bad news.

Tried a second trade @ 2.5, but back out at 2.52. That plus 2 other flips didn't even make a buck per share.
Afraid this will be a loooong hold, if it pays off at all.
AJMO & GLTA

US DOE grants $1.66bn to Plug Power to develop hydrogen facilities
The loan guarantee will facilitate the production of clean hydrogen using Plug's electrolyser technology.
January 17, 2025
https://www.power-technology.com/news/us-doe-plug-power-hydrogen/

but the loan guarantee only backs projects one at a time.

Texas is happening. the capex is being transferred to the New subsidiary they set up.

The next is Georgia phase 3 (phase 1 was gaseous) which is highly likely as permitting should be easy

the rest may not happen (they have 10years) certainly not announced unless they resurrect STAMP

By the tie they are doing 3-6 though they will be selling the h2 frmo their sites at enormous margins accounting for the up to $3/kg PTC as well.

2028 numbers shod be impressive

AND NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS !

I have been saving this for today !

PLUG isn't getting $1.66 Billion . That's NOT how the program works.

You get the CAPEX on a project by project basis. This limits the risk exposure.

So if PLUG doesn't do $1.66 billion of CAPEX, PLUG won't get all of the $1.66.

We have already seen three Capex projects cancelled, and I am sure there will be more.

This is why no one who knows the real deal is celebrating this MONUMENTAL Deal.

Well, it was sell on the news, I guess. Now for the hard work. They get most of what they wanted and now have a third chance at life. The first was when we were almost bankrupt and sold to Amazon and Walmart. The next was our $2 Billion-dollar stock sale and now this. Will, the third time be a charm or will Andy and the gang just screw it up yet again?

PLUG leveling out, could see a 10-20% move up IF this holds.
JMO

Repost from Stocktwits, courtesy of Longsands8.

ROTH note out this morning on recent headlines

Back to you, Jack!
Congrats!

So this what the market thinks about the 1.6b loan ? Not good !

Stew, thank you for the clarification and insightful response.

Repost from Stocktwits, courtesy of Stinger2023.

Morons and Maggots need to know that this loan from the government subsidized at 5% rate is going to allow Plug to increase their plant production and bring cost down. 2nd, this will allow an equity investor to come to fund their short term goals with the US Government behind them. This adds a big huge backstop for the company. Now, we know Plug will survive with such a big huge loan for them, at a lower rate, and they don’t have to pay it in years to come. This will create leverage and add value to the company. With the tax credits and incentives as well, the company is ready to move forward and eventually be profitable.

Increase, but you know sell on NEWS can be in play. It's time for Plug get a big move, but it want hold i'm afraid. With Humpty Trumpty thing going on who knows, play it. JMHO again