An injectable once-weekly diabetes drug, Bydureon, being developed by Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN) and Alkermes Inc. (ALKS) obtained a key recommendation that should lead to European regulatory approval.

The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, known as CHMP, of the European Medicines Agency recommended the approval of Bydureon. The opinion will be forwarded to the European Commission for ratification, something that is highly likely and should occur within two to three months.

The opinion is a positive development for the companies, which are still hoping to get approval in the U.S. after a rejection of the drug last year.

The news sent Amylin shares up 13% to $12.67 on heavy volume. Shares of Alkermes rose 3.5% to $13.88, and Lilly added 25 cents to $36.

If approved, Lilly will market the drug overseas and will pay Amylin an undisclosed royalty. Alkermes will collect an 8% royalty on global sales.

Bydureon is a long-acting version of Byetta, a twice daily drug from Lilly and Amylin that was approved in 2005.

The FDA declined to approve Bydureon early last year and made the same move in October, asking for more clinical data. The companies expect to submit that data and re-apply for approval in the second half of the year with a projected six-month review.

The initial FDA delays came from requests on details that didn't require additional studies. But the latest rejection requested a QT study, which aims to determine potential heart arrhythmia caused by a drug.

The European decision won't directly impact the FDA review, but Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas believes the CHMP recomendation "suggests they view Bydureon safe enough for use and the U.S. may likely follow." Furthermore, she believes that the European launch will provide some insight on how Bydureon will fare in the U.S. if approved.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst William Tanner disagrees about reading too much into the decision and warns about Bydureon's prospects, citing competition from other drugs and continued concerns about its safety.

"We view the EU approval as no indication of whether the FDA will ultimately approve Bydureon," he said. He projects Amylin getting a royalty on European sales of $52 million in 2016, based on sales of $605 million in the region.

The success of Bydureon is key to the future of Amylin, which hasn't reported a profit since going public in 1992. The drug would be a positive development for Lilly, a company looking for new drugs to offset looming generic competition to its top products.

Last month, Bydureon suffered a setback as it failed to prove as effective as a once daily treatment. In a study, it failed to reduce blood-sugar levels as well as Victoza, made by Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO, NOVO-B.KO). Victoza is already on the market and is in the same class of drugs as Byetta and Bydureon, but is taken once daily.

-By Thomas Gryta, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2169; thomas.gryta@dowjones.com

 
 
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