ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
Below are certain risk factors that may affect our business, results of operations and financial condition, or the trading price of our common stock or other securities. We caution the reader that these risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a continually changing business environment, and new risks and uncertainties emerge from time to time. Management cannot predict such new risks and uncertainties, nor can it assess the extent to which any of the risk factors below or any such new risks and uncertainties, or any combination thereof, may impact our business.
Risks Relating to AAG and Industry-Related Risks
Downturns in economic conditions could adversely affect our business.
Due to the discretionary nature of business and leisure travel spending and the highly competitive nature of the airline industry, our revenues are heavily influenced by the condition of the U.S. economy and economies in other regions of the world. Unfavorable conditions in these broader economies have resulted, and may result in the future, in decreased passenger demand for air travel, changes in booking practices and related reactions by our competitors, all of which in turn have had, and may have in the future, a strong negative effect on our revenues. See also
“The airline industry is intensely competitive and dynamic”
below.
Our business is very dependent on the price and availability of aircraft fuel. Continued periods of high volatility in fuel costs, increased fuel prices or significant disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel could have a significant negative impact on our operating results and liquidity.
Our operating results are materially impacted by changes in the availability, price volatility and cost of aircraft fuel, which represents one of the largest single cost items in our business. Jet fuel market prices have fluctuated substantially over the past several years and prices continue to be highly volatile.
Because of the amount of fuel needed to operate our business, even a relatively small increase or decrease in the price of fuel can have a material effect on our operating results and liquidity. Due to the competitive nature of the airline industry and unpredictability of the market for air travel, we can offer no assurance that we may be able to increase our fares, impose fuel surcharges or otherwise increase revenues sufficiently to offset fuel price increases. Similarly, we cannot predict the effect or the actions of our competitors if the current low fuel prices remain in place for a significant period of time or fuel prices decrease in the future.
Although we are currently able to obtain adequate supplies of aircraft fuel, we cannot predict the future availability, price volatility or cost of aircraft fuel. Natural disasters, political disruptions or wars involving oil-producing countries, changes in fuel-related governmental policy, the strength of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies, changes in access to petroleum product pipelines and terminals, speculation in the energy futures markets, changes in aircraft fuel production capacity, environmental concerns and other unpredictable events may result in fuel supply shortages, additional fuel price volatility and cost increases in the future.
Our aviation fuel purchase contracts generally do not provide meaningful price protection against increases in fuel costs. Prior to the closing of the Merger, we sought to manage the risk of fuel price increases by using derivative contracts. Our current policy is not to enter into transactions to hedge our fuel consumption, although we review that policy from time to time based on market conditions and other factors. Accordingly, as of
September 30, 2017
, we did not have any fuel hedging contracts outstanding. As such, and assuming we do not enter into any future transactions to hedge our fuel consumption, we will continue to be fully exposed to fluctuations in fuel prices.
If in the future we enter into derivative contracts to hedge our fuel consumption, there can be no assurance that, at any given time, we will have derivatives in place to provide any particular level of protection against increased fuel costs or that our counterparties will be able to perform under our derivative contracts. To the extent we use derivative contracts that have the potential to create an obligation to pay upon settlement if prices decline significantly, such derivative contracts may limit our ability to benefit from lower fuel costs in the future. Also, a rapid decline in the projected price of fuel at a time when we
have fuel hedging contracts in place could materially adversely impact our short-term liquidity, because hedge counterparties could require that we post collateral in the form of cash or letters of credit. See also the discussion in Part I, Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk –
“Aircraft Fuel.”
The airline industry is intensely competitive and dynamic.
Our competitors include other major domestic airlines and foreign, regional and new entrant airlines, as well as joint ventures formed by some of these airlines, many of which have more financial or other resources and/or lower cost structures than ours, as well as other forms of transportation, including rail and private automobiles. In many of our markets we compete with at least one low-cost air carrier. Our revenues are sensitive to the actions of other carriers in many areas including pricing, scheduling, capacity, amenities and promotions, which can have a substantial adverse impact not only on our revenues, but on overall industry revenues. These factors may become even more significant in periods when the industry experiences large losses, as airlines under financial stress, or in bankruptcy, may institute pricing structures intended to achieve near-term survival rather than long-term viability.
Low-cost carriers, including so-called ultra-low-cost carriers, have a profound impact on industry revenues. Using the advantage of low unit costs, these carriers offer lower fares in order to shift demand from larger, more established airlines, and represent significant competitors, particularly for customers who fly infrequently and are price sensitive and tend not to be loyal to any one particular carrier. A number of low-cost carriers have announced growth strategies including commitments to acquire significant numbers of aircraft for delivery in the next few years. These low-cost carriers are attempting to continue to increase their market share through growth and, potentially, consolidation, and could continue to have an impact on our revenues and overall performance. For example, as a result of divestitures completed in connection with gaining regulatory approval for the Merger, low-fare, low-cost carriers have gained additional access in a number of markets, including Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), a slot-controlled airport. In addition, we and several other large network carriers have announced “basic economy” fares designed to compete against low-cost carriers and we cannot predict whether these initiatives will be successful or the competitive reaction of the low-cost carriers. The actions of the low-cost carriers, including those described above, could have a material adverse effect on our operations and financial performance.
Our presence in international markets is not as extensive as that of some of our competitors. In providing international air transportation, we compete to provide scheduled passenger and cargo service between the U.S. and various overseas locations with U.S. airlines, foreign investor-owned airlines and foreign state-owned or state-affiliated airlines, including carriers based in the Middle East, the three largest of which we believe benefit from significant government subsidies. Our international service exposes us to foreign economies and the potential for reduced demand, such as we have recently experienced in Brazil and Venezuela, when any foreign countries we serve suffer adverse local economic conditions. In addition, open skies agreements with an increasing number of countries around the world provide international airlines with open access to U.S. markets. See also
“Our business is subject to extensive government regulation, which may result in increases in our costs, disruptions to our operations, limits on our operating flexibility, reductions in the demand for air travel, and competitive disadvantages.”
Certain airline alliances, joint ventures and joint businesses have been, or may in the future be, granted immunity from antitrust regulations by governmental authorities for specific areas of cooperation, such as joint pricing decisions. To the extent alliances formed by our competitors can undertake activities that are not available to us, our ability to effectively compete may be hindered. Our ability to attract and retain customers is dependent upon, among other things, our ability to offer our customers convenient access to desired markets. Our business could be adversely affected if we are unable to maintain or obtain alliance and marketing relationships with other air carriers in desired markets.
We are party to antitrust-immunized cooperation agreements with British Airways, Iberia, Finnair, Royal Jordanian, Japan Airlines, LAN Airlines and LAN Peru. As part of the antitrust-immunized relationships, we have also established joint business agreements (JBAs) with British Airways, Iberia and Finnair, and separately with Japan Airlines. In October 2017, American Airlines and its transatlantic partners executed an amended and restated JBA which, among other things, extends the term of the agreement. Also, we had previously signed a revised JBA with Qantas Airways and applied for antitrust immunity with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) for the revised relationship, but we withdrew that application in November 2016 after it was tentatively denied by the DOT. We intend to file a new application for antitrust immunity with the DOT this year, which, if granted, would allow us to expand that relationship further. In addition, we have signed JBAs with certain air carriers of the LATAM Airlines Group and have applied for approval in the relevant jurisdictions affected by such agreements, which applications have been approved in Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay, but are still pending before other relevant authorities, including the DOT and in Chile. The foregoing arrangements are important aspects of our international network and we are dependent on the performance of the other airlines party to those agreements. No assurances can be given as to any benefits that we may derive from such arrangements or any other arrangements that may ultimately be implemented.
Additional mergers and other forms of industry consolidation, including antitrust immunity grants, may take place and may not involve us as a participant. Depending on which carriers combine and which assets, if any, are sold or otherwise transferred to other carriers in connection with any such combinations, our competitive position relative to the post-combination carriers or other carriers that acquire such assets could be harmed. In addition, as carriers combine through traditional mergers or antitrust immunity grants, their route networks will grow, and that growth will result in greater overlap with our network, which in turn could result in lower overall market share and revenues for us. Such consolidation is not limited to the U.S., but could include further consolidation among international carriers in Europe and elsewhere.
Ongoing data security requirements and obligations could increase our costs, and any significant data security incident could disrupt our operations and harm our reputation, business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our business requires the appropriate and secure utilization of customer, employee, business partner and other sensitive information, and confidence in the networks and systems that allow us to operate. We cannot be certain that we will not be the target of attacks on our networks and intrusions into our data, particularly given recent advances in technical capabilities, and increased financial and political motivations to carry out cyber-attacks on physical systems, gain unauthorized access to information, and make information unavailable for use through, for example, ransomware or denial-of-service attacks, and otherwise exploit new and existing vulnerabilities in our infrastructure. The risk of a data security incident or disruption, particularly through cyber-attack or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments and cyber terrorists, has increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. Furthermore, in response to these threats there has been heightened legislative and regulatory focus on attacks on critical infrastructures, including those in the transportation sector, and on data security in the U.S. and abroad (particularly in the European Union (EU)), including requirements for varying levels of data subject notification in the event of a data security incident.
In addition, many of our commercial partners, including credit card companies, have imposed data security standards that we must meet. In particular, we are required by the Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council, founded by the credit card companies, to comply with their highest level of data security standards. While we continue our efforts to meet these standards, new and revised standards may be imposed that may be difficult for us to meet and could increase our costs.
A significant data security incident or our failure to comply with applicable U.S. or foreign data security regulations or other data security standards may impact our brand and expose us to litigation and regulatory enforcement actions, resulting in fines, sanctions or other penalties. Such actions could further harm our reputation, adversely impact our relationship with our customers, employees, and stockholders, result in material financial impact, and disrupt business operations. Failure to appropriately address these issues could also give rise to similar legal risks and damages.
Our high level of debt and other obligations may limit our ability to fund general corporate requirements and obtain additional financing, may limit our flexibility in responding to competitive developments and cause our business to be vulnerable to adverse economic and industry conditions.
We have significant amounts of indebtedness and other obligations, including pension obligations, obligations to make future payments on flight equipment and property leases, and substantial non-cancelable obligations under aircraft and related spare engine purchase agreements. Moreover, currently a substantial portion of our assets are pledged to secure our indebtedness. Our substantial indebtedness and other obligations could have important consequences. For example, they:
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may make it more difficult for us to satisfy our obligations under our indebtedness;
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may limit our ability to obtain additional funding for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, investments, integration costs, and general corporate purposes, and adversely affect the terms on which such funding can be obtained;
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require us to dedicate a substantial portion of our cash flow from operations to payments on our indebtedness and other obligations, thereby reducing the funds available for other purposes;
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make us more vulnerable to economic downturns, industry conditions and catastrophic external events, particularly relative to competitors with lower relative levels of financial leverage;
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contain covenants requiring us to maintain an aggregate of at least $2.0 billion of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and amounts available to be drawn under revolving credit facilities;
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contain restrictive covenants that could:
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limit our ability to merge, consolidate, sell assets, incur additional indebtedness, issue preferred stock, make investments and pay dividends;
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significantly constrain our ability to respond, or respond quickly, to unexpected disruptions in our own operations, the U.S. or global economies, or the businesses in which we operate, or to take advantage of opportunities that would improve our business, operations, or competitive position versus other airlines;
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limit our ability to withstand competitive pressures and reduce our flexibility in responding to changing business and economic conditions; and
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result in an event of default under our indebtedness.
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Further, a substantial portion of our indebtedness bears interest at fluctuating interest rates, primarily based on the London interbank offered rate for deposits of U.S. dollars (LIBOR). LIBOR tends to fluctuate based on general interest rates, rates set by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, the supply of and demand for credit in the London interbank market and general economic conditions. We have not hedged our interest rate exposure with respect to our floating rate debt. Accordingly, our interest expense for any particular period will fluctuate based on LIBOR and other variable interest rates. To the extent these interest rates increase, our interest expense will increase, in which event we may have difficulties making interest payments and funding our other fixed costs, and our available cash flow for general corporate requirements may be adversely affected. See also the discussion of interest rate risk in Part I, Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk –
“Interest.”
These obligations also impact our ability to obtain additional financing, if needed, and our flexibility in the conduct of our business, and could materially adversely affect our liquidity, results of operations and financial condition.
We will need to obtain sufficient financing or other capital to operate successfully.
Our business plan contemplates significant investments in modernizing our fleet. Significant capital resources will be required to execute this plan. We estimate that, based on our commitments as of
September 30, 2017
, our planned aggregate expenditures for aircraft purchase commitments and certain engines on a consolidated basis for calendar years 2017-2021 would be approximately $
10.9 billion
. Accordingly, we will need substantial financing or other capital resources to finance such aircraft. If we are unable to arrange financing for such aircraft at customary advance rates and on terms and conditions acceptable to us, we may need to use cash from operations or cash on hand to purchase such aircraft or may seek to negotiate deferrals for such aircraft with the aircraft manufacturers. Depending on numerous factors, many of which are out of our control, such as the state of the domestic and global economies, the capital and credit markets’ view of our prospects and the airline industry in general, and the general availability of debt and equity capital at the time we seek capital, the financing or other capital resources that we will need may not be available to us, or may be available only on onerous terms and conditions. There can be no assurance that we will be successful in obtaining financing or other needed sources of capital to operate successfully. An inability to obtain necessary financing on acceptable terms would have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We have significant pension and other postretirement benefit funding obligations, which may adversely affect our liquidity, results of operations and financial condition.
Our pension funding obligations are significant. The amount of these obligations will depend on the performance of investments held in trust by the pension plans, interest rates for determining liabilities and actuarial experience. Currently, our minimum funding obligation for our pension plans is subject to favorable temporary funding rules that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2017. Our minimum pension funding obligations are likely to increase materially beginning in 2019, when we will be required to make contributions relating to the 2018 fiscal year. In addition, we may have significant obligations for other postretirement benefits, the ultimate amount of which depends on, among other things, the outcome of an adversary proceeding related to retiree medical and other postretirement benefits and life insurance obligations filed in the Chapter 11 Cases.
If our financial condition worsens, provisions in our credit card processing and other commercial agreements may adversely affect our liquidity.
We have agreements with companies that process customer credit card transactions for the sale of air travel and other services. These agreements allow these processing companies, under certain conditions (including, with respect to certain agreements, the failure of American to maintain certain levels of liquidity) to hold an amount of our cash (a holdback) equal to some or all of the advance ticket sales that have been processed by that credit card processor, but for which we have not yet provided the air transportation. We are not currently required to maintain any holdbacks pursuant to these requirements. These holdback requirements can be modified at the discretion of the credit card processing companies upon the occurrence of specific events, including material adverse changes in our financial condition. An increase in the current holdbacks, up to and including 100% of relevant advanced ticket sales, could materially reduce our liquidity. Likewise, other of our commercial agreements contain provisions that allow other entities to impose less-favorable terms, including the acceleration of amounts due, in the event of material adverse changes in our financial condition.
Union disputes, employee strikes and other labor-related disruptions may adversely affect our operations.
Relations between air carriers and labor unions in the U.S. are governed by the Railway Labor Act (RLA). Under the RLA, collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) generally contain “amendable dates” rather than expiration dates, and the RLA requires that a carrier maintain the existing terms and conditions of employment following the amendable date through a multi-stage and usually lengthy series of bargaining processes overseen by the National Mediation Board (NMB). For the dates that the CBAs with our major work groups become amendable under the RLA, see Part I, Item 1. Business –
“Employees and Labor Relations”
in our 2016 Form 10-K.
In the case of a CBA that is amendable under the RLA, if no agreement is reached during direct negotiations between the parties, either party may request that the NMB appoint a federal mediator. The RLA prescribes no timetable for the direct negotiation and mediation processes, and it is not unusual for those processes to last for many months or even several years. If no agreement is reached in mediation, the NMB in its discretion may declare that an impasse exists and proffer binding arbitration to the parties. Either party may decline to submit to arbitration, and if arbitration is rejected by either party, a 30-day “cooling off” period commences. During or after that period, a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) may be established, which examines the parties’ positions and recommends a solution. The PEB process lasts for 30 days and is followed by another 30-day “cooling off” period. At the end of a “cooling off” period, unless an agreement is reached or action is taken by Congress, the labor organization may exercise “self-help,” such as a strike, which could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
None of the unions representing our employees presently may lawfully engage in concerted refusals to work, such as strikes, slow-downs, sick-outs or other similar activity, against us. Nonetheless, there is a risk that disgruntled employees, either with or without union involvement, could engage in one or more concerted refusals to work that could individually or collectively harm the operation of our airline and impair our financial performance. See also Part I, Item 1. Business –
“Employees and Labor Relations”
in our 2016 Form 10-K.
The inability to maintain labor costs at competitive levels would harm our financial performance.
Currently, we believe our labor costs are competitive relative to the other large network carriers. However, we cannot provide assurance that labor costs going forward will remain competitive because we are in negotiations for some new agreements now and other agreements may become amendable, competitors may significantly reduce their labor costs or we may agree to higher-cost provisions in our current or future labor negotiations, such as the employee profit sharing program we instituted effective January 1, 2016 and the mid-contract adjustment we provided to our flight attendants and pilots in 2017. As of December 31, 2016, approximately 85% of our employees were represented for collective bargaining purposes by labor unions. Some of our unions have brought and may continue to bring grievances to binding arbitration, including those related to wages. Unions may also bring court actions and may seek to compel us to engage in bargaining processes where we believe we have no such obligation. If successful, there is a risk these judicial or arbitral avenues could create material additional costs that we did not anticipate.
Interruptions or disruptions in service at one of our key facilities could have a material adverse impact on our operations.
We operate principally through hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington, D.C. Substantially all of our flights either originate in or fly into one of these locations. A significant interruption or disruption in service at one of our hubs resulting from air traffic control (ATC) delays, weather conditions, natural disasters, growth constraints, relations with third-party service providers, failure of computer systems, disruptions at
airport facilities or other key facilities used by us to manage our operations, labor relations, power supplies, fuel supplies, terrorist activities, or otherwise could result in the cancellation or delay of a significant portion of our flights and, as a result, could have a severe impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
If we are unable to obtain and maintain adequate facilities and infrastructure throughout our system and, at some airports, adequate slots, we may be unable to operate our existing flight schedule and to expand or change our route network in the future, which may have a material adverse impact on our operations.
In order to operate our existing and proposed flight schedule and, where desirable, add service along new or existing routes, we must be able to maintain and/or obtain adequate gates, check-in counters, operations areas, operations control facilities and office space. As airports around the world become more congested, we are not always able to ensure that our plans for new service can be implemented in a commercially viable manner, given operating constraints at airports throughout our network, including due to inadequate facilities at desirable airports. Further, our operating costs at airports at which we operate, including our hubs, may increase significantly because of capital improvements at such airports that we may be required to fund, directly or indirectly. In some circumstances, such costs could be imposed by the relevant airport authority without our approval.
In addition, operations at three major domestic airports, certain smaller domestic airports and certain foreign airports served by us are regulated by governmental entities through the use of slots or similar regulatory mechanisms which limit the rights of carriers to conduct operations at those airports. Each slot represents the authorization to land at or take off from the particular airport during a specified time period and may have other operational restrictions as well. In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) currently regulates the allocation of slots or slot exemptions at DCA and two New York City airports: John F. Kennedy International Airport and La Guardia Airport (LGA). In addition to slot restrictions, operations at LGA and DCA are also limited based on the stage length of the flight. Our operations at these airports generally require the allocation of slots or similar regulatory authority. Similarly, our operations at international airports in Beijing, Frankfurt, London Heathrow, Paris, Tokyo and other airports outside the U.S. are regulated by local slot authorities pursuant to the International Airline Trade Association (IATA) Worldwide Scheduling Guidelines and applicable local law. We currently have sufficient slots or analogous authorizations to operate our existing flights and we have generally, but not always, been able to obtain the rights to expand our operations and to change our schedules. However, there is no assurance that we will be able to obtain sufficient slots or analogous authorizations in the future or as to the cost of acquiring such rights because, among other reasons, such allocations are often sought after by other airlines and are subject to changes in governmental policies. We cannot provide any assurance that regulatory changes regarding the allocation of slots or similar regulatory authority will not have a material adverse impact on our operations.
Our ability to provide service can also be impaired at airports, such as Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) and Los Angeles International Airport, where the airport gate and other facilities are inadequate to accommodate all of the service that we would like to provide, or airports such as Dallas Love Field Airport where we have no access to gates at all.
Any limitation on our ability to acquire or maintain adequate gates, ticketing facilities, operations areas, operations control facilities, slots (where applicable), or office space could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
If we encounter problems with any of our third-party regional operators or third-party service providers, our operations could be adversely affected by a resulting decline in revenue or negative public perception about our services.
A significant portion of our regional operations are conducted by third-party operators on our behalf, primarily under capacity purchase agreements. Due to our reliance on third parties to provide these essential services, we are subject to the risks of disruptions to their operations, which may result from many of the same risk factors disclosed in this report, such as the impact of adverse economic conditions, the inability of third parties to hire or retain necessary personnel, including in particular pilots, and other risk factors, such as an out-of-court or bankruptcy restructuring of any of our regional operators. Many of these third-party regional operators provide significant regional capacity that we would be unable to replace in a short period of time should that operator fail to perform its obligations to us. Volatility in fuel prices, disruptions to capital markets and adverse economic conditions in general have subjected certain of these third-party regional operators to significant financial pressures, which have in the past and may in the future lead to bankruptcies among these operators. For example, one of our significant third-party operators of regional capacity, Republic, commenced a Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2016. In connection with Republic’s bankruptcy process, we restructured our contractual relationship with Republic and received an approximate 25% equity interest in Republic in consideration for our unsecured claim in the case. We may also experience disruption to our regional operations if we terminate the capacity purchase agreement with one or more of our current operators and
transition the services to another provider. Any significant disruption to our regional operations would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, our reliance upon others to provide essential services on behalf of our operations may result in our relative inability to control the efficiency and timeliness of contract services. We have entered into agreements with contractors to provide various facilities and services required for our operations, including distribution and sale of airline seat inventory, provision of information technology and services, regional operations, aircraft maintenance, ground services and facilities, reservations and baggage handling. Similar agreements may be entered into in any new markets we decide to serve. These agreements are generally subject to termination after notice by the third-party service provider. We are also at risk should one of these service providers cease operations, and there is no guarantee that we could replace these providers on a timely basis with comparably priced providers, or at all. Any material problems with the efficiency and timeliness of contract services, resulting from financial hardships or otherwise, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We rely on third-party distribution channels and must manage effectively the costs, rights and functionality of these channels.
We rely on third-party distribution channels, including those provided by or through global distribution systems (GDSs) (e.g., Amadeus, Sabre and Travelport), conventional travel agents and online travel agents (OTAs) (e.g., Expedia, including its booking sites Orbitz and Travelocity, and The Priceline Group), to distribute a significant portion of our airline tickets, and we expect in the future to continue to rely on these channels and hope to expand their ability to distribute and collect revenues for ancillary products (e.g., fees for selective seating). These distribution channels are more expensive and at present have less functionality in respect of ancillary product offerings than those we operate ourselves, such as our call centers and our website. Certain of these distribution channels also effectively restrict the manner in which we distribute our products generally. To remain competitive, we will need to manage successfully our distribution costs and rights, increase our distribution flexibility and improve the functionality of third-party distribution channels, while maintaining an industry-competitive cost structure. These imperatives may affect our relationships with GDSs and OTAs, including as consolidation of OTAs continues or is proposed to continue, and require us to make significant investments in potential new distribution technologies. Any inability to manage our third-party distribution costs, rights and functionality at a competitive level or any material diminishment or disruption in the distribution of our tickets could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our business is subject to extensive government regulation, which may result in increases in our costs, disruptions to our operations, limits on our operating flexibility, reductions in the demand for air travel, and competitive disadvantages.
Airlines are subject to extensive domestic and international regulatory requirements. In the last several years, Congress has passed laws, and the DOT, the FAA, the Transportation Security Administration and the Department of Homeland Security have issued a number of directives and other regulations, that affect the airline industry. These requirements impose substantial costs on us and restrict the ways we may conduct our business.
For example, the FAA from time to time issues directives and other regulations relating to the maintenance and operation of aircraft that require significant expenditures or operational restrictions. These requirements can be issued with little or no notice, or can otherwise impact our ability to efficiently or fully utilize our aircraft. Additionally, the FAA is presently considering regulations that would impose a cap on ticket change fees charged by airlines. Our failure to comply with such requirements has in the past and may in the future result in fines and other enforcement actions by the FAA or other regulators. In the future, new regulatory requirements could have a material adverse effect on us and the industry.
DOT consumer rules that took effect in 2010 require procedures for customer handling during long onboard delays, further regulate airline interactions with passengers through the reservations process, at the airport, and onboard the aircraft, and require disclosures concerning airline fares and ancillary fees such as baggage fees. The DOT has been aggressively investigating alleged violations of these rules. Other DOT rules apply to post-ticket purchase price increases and an expansion of tarmac delay regulations to international airlines.
The Aviation and Transportation Security Act mandates the federalization of certain airport security procedures and imposes additional security requirements on airports and airlines, most of which are funded by a per-ticket tax on passengers and a tax on airlines. Present and potential future security requirements can have the effect of imposing costs and inconvenience on travelers, potentially reducing the demand for air travel.
The results of our operations, demand for air travel, and the manner in which we conduct business each may be affected by changes in law and future actions taken by governmental agencies, including:
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changes in law which affect the services that can be offered by airlines in particular markets and at particular airports, or the types of fees that can be charged to passengers;
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the granting and timing of certain governmental approvals (including antitrust or foreign government approvals) needed for codesharing alliances, joint businesses and other arrangements with other airlines;
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restrictions on competitive practices (for example, court orders, or agency regulations or orders, that would curtail an airline’s ability to respond to a competitor);
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the adoption of new passenger security standards or regulations that impact customer service standards (for example, a “passenger bill of rights”);
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restrictions on airport operations, such as restrictions on the use of slots at airports or the auction or reallocation of slot rights currently held by us; and
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the adoption of more restrictive locally-imposed noise restrictions.
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Each additional regulation or other form of regulatory oversight increases costs and adds greater complexity to airline operations and, in some cases, may reduce the demand for air travel. There can be no assurance that our compliance with new rules, anticipated rules or other forms of regulatory oversight will not have a material adverse effect on us.
Any significant reduction in air traffic capacity at and in the airspace serving key airports in the U.S. or overseas could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, the United States National Airspace System (the ATC system) is not successfully managing the growing demand for U.S. air travel. Air traffic controllers rely on outdated procedures and technologies that are routinely overwhelmed and compel airlines to fly inefficient routes or take significant delays on the ground. The ATC system’s inability to handle existing travel demand has led government agencies to implement short-term capacity constraints during peak travel periods or adverse weather conditions in certain markets, resulting in delays and disruptions of air traffic. The outdated technologies also cause the ATC to be less resilient in the event of a failure. For example, in 2014 the ATC systems in Chicago took weeks to recover following a fire in the ATC tower at ORD, which resulted in thousands of cancelled flights.
The FAA has embarked on transforming the national airspace system, to include migration from the current radar-based air traffic control system to a GPS-based system. This ATC modernization, generally referred to as “NextGen,” has been plagued by delays and cost overruns, and it remains uncertain when the full array of benefits expected from ATC modernization will be available to the public and the airlines. Failure to update the ATC system in a timely manner and the substantial funding requirements that may be imposed on airlines of a modernized ATC system may have a material adverse effect on our business. We support legislative efforts that would establish a nimble not-for-profit entity better suited to manage the long-term investments in technology and provide a governance structure needed to successfully implement NextGen and improve the operation of the air traffic control system.
Our operating authority in international markets is subject to aviation agreements between the U.S. and the respective countries or governmental authorities, such as the EU, and in some cases, fares and schedules require the approval of the DOT and/or the relevant foreign governments. Moreover, alliances with international carriers may be subject to the jurisdiction and regulations of various foreign agencies. Bilateral and multilateral agreements among the U.S. and various foreign governments of countries we serve are subject to periodic renegotiation. We currently operate a number of international routes under government arrangements that limit the number of airlines permitted to operate on the route, the capacity of the airlines providing services on the route, or the number of airlines allowed access to particular airports. If an open skies policy were to be adopted for any of these routes, such an event could have a material adverse impact on us and could result in the impairment of material amounts of our related tangible and intangible assets. In addition, competition from revenue-sharing joint ventures, JBAs, and other alliance arrangements by and among other airlines could impair the value of our business and assets on the open skies routes. For example, the open skies air services agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which took effect in March 2008, provides airlines from the U.S. and EU member states open access to each other’s markets, with freedom of pricing and unlimited rights to fly from the U.S. to any airport in the EU, including London Heathrow Airport (LHR). As a result of the agreement, we face increased competition in these markets, including LHR. The pending withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU will mandate further modification in the current regulatory regime. Changes in U.S. or foreign government aviation policies could result in the alteration or termination of such agreements, diminish the value of route authorities, slots or other assets located abroad, or otherwise adversely affect our international operations.
The U.S. government has negotiated “open skies” agreements with many countries, which allow unrestricted route authority access between the U.S. and the foreign markets. While the U.S. has worked to increase the number of countries with which open skies agreements are in effect, a number of markets important to us, including China, do not have open skies agreements.
The airline industry is heavily taxed.
The airline industry is subject to extensive government fees and taxation that negatively impact our revenue and profitability. The U.S. airline industry is one of the most heavily taxed of all industries. These fees and taxes have grown significantly in the past decade for domestic flights, and various U.S. fees and taxes also are assessed on international flights. For example, as permitted by federal legislation, most major U.S. airports impose a passenger facility charge per passenger on us. In addition, the governments of foreign countries in which we operate impose on U.S. airlines, including us, various fees and taxes, and these assessments have been increasing in number and amount in recent years. Moreover, we are obligated to collect a federal excise tax, commonly referred to as the “ticket tax,” on domestic and international air transportation. We collect the excise tax, along with certain other U.S. and foreign taxes and user fees on air transportation (such as passenger security fees), and pass along the collected amounts to the appropriate governmental agencies. Although these taxes and fees are not operating expenses, they represent an additional cost to our customers. There are continuing efforts in Congress and in other countries to raise different portions of the various taxes, fees, and charges imposed on airlines and their passengers, and we may not be able to recover all of these charges from our customers. Increases in such taxes, fees and charges could negatively impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Under DOT regulations, all governmental taxes and fees must be included in the prices we quote or advertise to our customers. Due to the competitive revenue environment, many increases in these fees and taxes have been absorbed by the airline industry rather than being passed on to the customer. Further increases in fees and taxes may reduce demand for air travel, and thus our revenues.
Potential tax reform in the U.S. may result in significant changes to U.S. federal income taxation law, including changes to the U.S. federal income taxation of corporations (including us), which could, among other things, result in a lower corporate tax rate, the elimination of certain tax deductions and preferences, and impacts to the international tax environment. We are currently unable to predict whether such changes will occur and, if so, the impact such changes would have on us and our subsidiaries.
Changes to our business model that are designed to increase revenues may not be successful and may cause operational difficulties or decreased demand.
We have recently instituted, and intend to institute in the future, changes to our business model to increase revenues and offset costs. These measures include premium economy service, basic economy service and charging separately for services that had previously been included within the price of a ticket and increasing other pre-existing fees. We may introduce additional initiatives in the future; however, as time goes on, we expect that it will be more difficult to identify and implement additional initiatives. We cannot assure you that these measures or any future initiatives will be successful in increasing our revenues. Additionally, the implementation of these initiatives may create logistical challenges that could harm the operational performance of our airline. Also, any new and increased fees might reduce the demand for air travel on our airline or across the industry in general, particularly if weakened economic conditions make our customers more sensitive to increased travel costs or provide a significant competitive advantage to other carriers that determine not to institute similar charges.
The loss of key personnel upon whom we depend to operate our business or the inability to attract additional qualified personnel could adversely affect our business.
We believe that our future success will depend in large part on our ability to retain or attract highly qualified management, technical and other personnel. We may not be successful in retaining key personnel or in attracting other highly qualified personnel. Any inability to retain or attract significant numbers of qualified management and other personnel would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We may be adversely affected by conflicts overseas or terrorist attacks; the travel industry continues to face ongoing security concerns.
Acts of terrorism or fear of such attacks, including elevated national threat warnings, wars or other military conflicts, may depress air travel, particularly on international routes, and cause declines in revenues and increases in costs. The attacks of September 11, 2001 and continuing terrorist threats, attacks and attempted attacks materially impacted and continue to impact air travel. Increased security procedures introduced at airports since the attacks of September 11, 2001 and any other such measures that may be introduced in the future generate higher operating costs for airlines. The Aviation and
Transportation Security Act mandated improved flight deck security, deployment of federal air marshals on board flights, improved airport perimeter access security, airline crew security training, enhanced security screening of passengers, baggage, cargo, mail, employees and vendors, enhanced training and qualifications of security screening personnel, additional provision of passenger data to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency and enhanced background checks. A concurrent increase in airport security charges and procedures, such as restrictions on carry-on baggage, has also had and may continue to have a disproportionate impact on short-haul travel, which constitutes a significant portion of our flying and revenue. Implementation of and compliance with increasingly-complex security and customs requirements will continue to result in increased costs for us and our passengers, and have caused and likely will continue to cause periodic service disruptions and delays. We have at times found it necessary or desirable to make significant expenditures to comply with security-related requirements while seeking to reduce their impact on our customers, such as expenditures for automated security screening lines at airports. As a result of competitive pressure, and the need to improve security screening throughput to support the pace of our operations, it is unlikely that we will be able to capture all security-related costs through increased fares. In addition, we cannot forecast what new security requirements may be imposed in the future, or their impact on our business.
We operate a global business with international operations that are subject to economic and political instability and have been, and in the future may continue to be, adversely affected by numerous events, circumstances or government actions beyond our control.
We operate a global business with operations outside of the U.S. Our current international activities and prospects have been and in the future could be adversely affected by reversals or delays in the opening of foreign markets, increased competition in international markets, the performance of our alliance, joint business and codeshare partners in a given market, exchange controls or other restrictions on repatriation of funds, currency and political risks (including changes in exchange rates and currency devaluations), environmental regulation, increases in taxes and fees and changes in international government regulation of our operations, including the inability to obtain or retain needed route authorities and/or slots. In particular, fluctuations in foreign currencies, including devaluations, exchange controls and other restrictions on the repatriation of funds, have significantly affected and may continue to significantly affect our operating performance, liquidity and the value of any cash held outside the U.S. in local currency.
Generally, fluctuations in foreign currencies, including devaluations, cannot be predicted by us and can significantly affect the value of our assets located outside the United States. These conditions, as well as any further delays, devaluations or imposition of more stringent repatriation restrictions, may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The United Kingdom held a referendum in June 2016 regarding its membership in the EU in which a majority of the United Kingdom electorate voted in favor of the British government taking the necessary action for the United Kingdom to leave the EU. In March 2017, the United Kingdom served notice of its decision to withdraw to the EU, formally initiating the withdrawal process. Serving this notice began the two-year period for the United Kingdom to negotiate the terms for its withdrawal from the EU. At this time, it is not certain what steps will need to be taken to facilitate the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. The implications of the United Kingdom withdrawing from the EU are similarly unclear at present because it is unclear what relationship the United Kingdom will have with the EU after withdrawal. We face risks associated with the uncertainty following the referendum and the consequences that may flow from the decision to exit the EU, notably given the extent of our passenger and cargo traffic that flows between the U.S. and the EU via LHR in the United Kingdom. Among other things, the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU could adversely affect European or worldwide economic or market conditions and could contribute to further instability in global financial markets. In addition, the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU has created uncertainty as to the future trade relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom, including as to air traffic services. The exit of the United Kingdom could also lead to legal and regulatory uncertainty and potentially divergent treaties, laws and regulations as the United Kingdom determines which EU treaties, laws and regulations to replace or replicate, including those governing aviation, labor, environmental, data protection/privacy, competition and other matters applicable to the provision of air transportation services by us or our alliance, joint business or codeshare partners. The impact on our business of any treaties, laws and regulations that replace the existing EU counterparts cannot be predicted. Any of these effects, and others we cannot anticipate, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are subject to many forms of environmental and noise regulation and may incur substantial costs as a result.
We are subject to increasingly stringent federal, state, local and foreign laws, regulations and ordinances relating to the protection of the environment and noise reduction, including those relating to emissions to the air, discharges to surface and subsurface waters, safe drinking water, and the management of hazardous substances, oils and waste materials. Compliance
with environmental laws and regulations can require significant expenditures, and violations can lead to significant fines and penalties.
We are also subject to other environmental laws and regulations, including those that require us to investigate and remediate soil or groundwater to meet certain remediation standards. Under federal law, generators of waste materials, and current and former owners or operators of facilities, can be subject to liability for investigation and remediation costs at locations that have been identified as requiring response actions. Liability under these laws may be strict, joint and several, meaning that we could be liable for the costs of cleaning up environmental contamination regardless of fault or the amount of waste directly attributable to us. We have liability for investigation and remediation costs at various sites, although such costs currently are not expected to have a material adverse effect on our business.
We have various leases and agreements with respect to real property, tanks and pipelines with airports and other operators. Under these leases and agreements, we have agreed to indemnify the lessor or operator against environmental liabilities associated with the real property or operations described under the agreement, in some cases even if we are not the party responsible for the initial event that caused the environmental damage. We also participate in leases with other airlines in fuel consortiums and fuel committees at airports, where such indemnities are generally joint and several among the participating airlines.
Governmental authorities in several U.S. and foreign cities are also considering, or have already implemented, aircraft noise reduction programs, including the imposition of nighttime curfews and limitations on daytime take offs and landings. We have been able to accommodate local noise restrictions imposed to date, but our operations could be adversely affected if locally-imposed regulations become more restrictive or widespread.
We are subject to risks associated with climate change, including increased regulation to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
There is increasing global regulatory focus on climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For example, in October 2016, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) passed a resolution adopting the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which is a global, market-based emissions offset program to encourage carbon-neutral growth beyond 2020. The CORSIA was supported by the board of Airlines For America (the principal U.S. airline trade association) and IATA (the principal international airline trade association), and by American and many other U.S. and foreign airlines. The CORSIA will increase operating costs for American and most other airlines, including other U.S. airlines that operate internationally, but the implementation of a global program, as compared to regional emission reduction schemes, should help to ensure that these costs will be more predictable and more evenly applied to American and its competitors. The CORSIA is expected to be implemented in phases, beginning in 2021. Certain details still need to be developed and the impact of the CORSIA cannot be fully predicted. While we do not anticipate any significant emissions allowance expenditures in 2017, compliance with the CORSIA or similar emissions-related requirements could significantly increase our operating costs beyond 2017. Further, the potential impact of the CORSIA or other emissions-related requirements on our costs will ultimately depend on a number of factors, including baseline emissions, the price of emission allowances or offsets and the number of future flights subject to such emissions-related requirements. These costs have not been completely defined and could fluctuate.
In addition, in December 2015, at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, over 190 countries, including the United States, reached an agreement (the Paris Agreement) to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. While the United States has since announced that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement and there is no express reference to aviation in that agreement, to the extent countries implement that agreement or impose other climate change regulations, either with respect to the aviation industry or with respect to related industries such as the aviation fuel industry, it could have an adverse direct or indirect effect on our business.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently issued an endangerment finding that aircraft engine GHG emissions cause or contribute to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, which is a precursor to EPA regulation of aircraft engine GHG emission standards. It is anticipated that any such standards established by the EPA would closely align with emission standards currently being developed by ICAO. In February 2016, the ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection recommended that ICAO adopt carbon dioxide certification standards that would apply to new type aircraft certified beginning in 2020, and would be phased in for newly manufactured existing aircraft type designs starting in 2023.
In addition, several states have adopted or are considering initiatives to regulate emissions of GHGs, primarily through the planned development of GHG emissions inventories and/or regional GHG cap and trade programs. Depending on the
scope of such regulation, certain of our facilities and operations, or the operations of our suppliers, may be subject to additional operating and other permit requirements, likely resulting in increased operating costs.
These regulatory efforts, both internationally and in the U.S. at the federal and state levels, are still developing, and we cannot yet determine what the final regulatory programs or their impact will be in the U.S., the EU or in other areas in which we do business. However, such climate change-related regulatory activity in the future may adversely affect our business and financial results by requiring us to reduce our emissions, purchase allowances or otherwise pay for our emissions. Such activity may also impact us indirectly by increasing our operating costs, including fuel costs.
We rely heavily on technology and automated systems to operate our business, and any failure of these technologies or systems could harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are highly dependent on existing and emerging technology and automated systems to operate our business. These technologies and systems include our computerized airline reservation system, flight operations systems, financial planning, management and accounting systems, telecommunications systems, website, maintenance systems and check-in kiosks. In order for our operations to work efficiently, our website and reservation system must be able to accommodate a high volume of traffic, maintain secure information and deliver flight information, as well as issue electronic tickets and process critical financial information in a timely manner. Substantially all of our tickets are issued to passengers as electronic tickets. We depend on our reservation system, which is hosted and maintained under a long-term contract by a third-party service provider, to be able to issue, track and accept these electronic tickets. If our automated systems are not functioning or if our third-party service providers were to fail to adequately provide technical support, system maintenance or timely software upgrades for any one of our key existing systems, we could experience service disruptions or delays, which could harm our business and result in the loss of important data, increase our expenses and decrease our revenues. In the event that one or more of our primary technology or systems vendors goes into bankruptcy, ceases operations or fails to perform as promised, replacement services may not be readily available on a timely basis, at competitive rates or at all, and any transition time to a new system may be significant.
Our automated systems cannot be completely protected against other events that are beyond our control, including natural disasters, power failures, terrorist attacks, cyber-attacks, data theft, equipment and software failures, computer viruses or telecommunications failures. Substantial or sustained system failures could cause service delays or failures and result in our customers purchasing tickets from other airlines. We cannot assure you that our security measures, change control procedures or disaster recovery plans are adequate to prevent disruptions or delays. Disruption in or changes to these systems could result in a disruption to our business and the loss of important data. Any of the foregoing could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We face challenges in integrating our computer, communications and other technology systems.
Among the principal risks of integrating our businesses and operations are the risks relating to integrating various computer, communications and other technology systems that will be necessary to operate US Airways and American as a single airline and to achieve cost synergies by eliminating redundancies in the businesses. While we have to date successfully integrated several of our systems, including our customer reservations system and our pilot and fleet scheduling system, we still have to complete several additional important system integration projects. The integration of these systems in a number of prior airline mergers has taken longer, been more disruptive and cost more than originally forecast. The implementation process to integrate these various systems will involve a number of risks that could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition. New systems will replace multiple legacy systems and the related implementation will be a complex and time-consuming project involving substantial expenditures for implementation consultants, system hardware, software and implementation activities, as well as the transformation of business and financial processes.
We cannot assure you that our security measures, change control procedures or disaster recovery plans will be adequate to prevent disruptions or delays in connection with systems integration or replacement. Disruptions in or changes to these systems could result in a disruption to our business and the loss of important data. Any of the foregoing could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are at risk of losses and adverse publicity stemming from any public incident, accident involving our personnel or aircraft or the personnel or aircraft of our regional or codeshare operators.
If our personnel or one of our aircraft, or personnel of, or an aircraft that is operated under our brand by, one of our regional operators or an airline with which we have a marketing alliance, joint business or codeshare relationship, were to be involved in a public incident, accident or catastrophe, we could be exposed to significant reputational harm and potential legal liability. The insurance we carry may be inapplicable or inadequate to cover any such incident, accident or catastrophe. In the event
that our insurance is inapplicable or not adequate, we may be forced to bear substantial losses from an incident or accident. In addition, any such incident, accident or catastrophe involving our personnel or one of our aircraft (or personnel and aircraft of our regional operators and our codeshare partners) could create an adverse public perception, which could harm our reputation, result in air travelers being reluctant to fly on our aircraft or those of our regional operators or codeshare partners, and adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Delays in scheduled aircraft deliveries or other loss of anticipated fleet capacity, and failure of new aircraft to perform as expected, may adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The success of our business depends on, among other things, effectively managing the number and types of aircraft we operate. In many cases, the aircraft we intend to operate are not yet in our fleet, but we have contractual commitments to purchase or lease them. If for any reason we were unable to accept or secure deliveries of new aircraft on contractually scheduled delivery dates, this could have a negative impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Our failure to integrate newly purchased aircraft into our fleet as planned might require us to seek extensions of the terms for some leased aircraft or otherwise delay the exit of certain aircraft from our fleet. Such unanticipated extensions or delays may require us to operate existing aircraft beyond the point at which it is economically optimal to retire them, resulting in increased maintenance costs. If new aircraft orders are not filled on a timely basis, we could face higher operating costs than planned. In addition, if the aircraft we receive do not meet expected performance or quality standards, including with respect to fuel efficiency and reliability, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely impacted.
We depend on a limited number of suppliers for aircraft, aircraft engines and parts.
We depend on a limited number of suppliers for aircraft, aircraft engines and many aircraft and engine parts. As a result, we are vulnerable to any problems associated with the supply of those aircraft, parts and engines, including design defects, mechanical problems, contractual performance by the suppliers, or adverse perception by the public that would result in customer avoidance or in actions by the FAA resulting in an inability to operate our aircraft.
Our business has been and will continue to be affected by many changing economic and other conditions beyond our control, including global events that affect travel behavior, and our results of operations could be volatile and fluctuate due to seasonality.
Our business, results of operations and financial condition have been and will continue to be affected by many changing economic and other conditions beyond our control, including, among others:
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actual or potential changes in international, national, regional and local economic, business and financial conditions, including recession, inflation, higher interest rates, wars, terrorist attacks and political instability;
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changes in consumer preferences, perceptions, spending patterns and demographic trends;
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changes in the competitive environment due to industry consolidation, changes in airline alliance affiliations, and other factors;
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actual or potential disruptions to the ATC systems;
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increases in costs of safety, security, and environmental measures;
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outbreaks of diseases that affect travel behavior; and
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weather and natural disasters.
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In particular, an outbreak of a contagious disease such as the Ebola virus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, H1N1 influenza virus, avian flu, Zika virus or any other similar illness, if it were to become associated with air travel or persist for an extended period, could materially affect the airline industry and us by reducing revenues and adversely impacting our operations and passengers’ travel behavior. As a result of these or other conditions beyond our control, our results of operations could be volatile and subject to rapid and unexpected change. In addition, due to generally weaker demand for air travel during the winter, our revenues in the first and fourth quarters of the year could be weaker than revenues in the second and third quarters of the year.
A higher than normal number of pilot retirements, more stringent duty time regulations, increased flight hour requirements for commercial airline pilots and other factors have caused a shortage of pilots which could materially adversely affect our business.
We currently have a higher than normal number of pilots eligible for retirement. Among other things, the extension of pilot careers facilitated by the FAA’s 2007 modification of the mandatory retirement age from age 60 to age 65 has now been fully implemented, resulting in large numbers of pilots in the industry approaching the revised mandatory retirement age. Further, in July 2013, the FAA issued regulations that increased the flight hours required for pilots working for airlines certificated under Part 121 of the Federal Aviation Regulations. In addition, on January 4, 2014, more stringent pilot flight and duty time requirements under Part 117 of the Federal Aviation Regulations took effect. These and other factors, including reductions in the number of military pilots being trained by the U.S. armed forces and available as commercial pilots upon their retirement from military service, have contributed to a shortage of qualified, entry-level pilots and increased compensation costs, particularly for our regional subsidiaries and our other regional partners who are being required by market conditions to pay significantly increased wages and large signing bonuses to their pilots in an attempt to achieve desired staffing levels. The foregoing factors have also led to increased competition from large, mainline carriers to hire pilots to replace retiring pilots. We believe that this industry-wide pilot shortage is becoming an increasing problem for airlines in the United States. Our regional partners have recently been unable to hire adequate numbers of pilots to meet their needs, resulting in a reduction in the number of flights offered, disruptions, increased costs of operations, financial difficulties and other adverse effects, and these circumstances may become more severe in the future and thereby cause a material adverse effect on our business.
Increases in insurance costs or reductions in insurance coverage may adversely impact our operations and financial results.
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 led to a significant increase in insurance premiums and a decrease in the insurance coverage available to commercial air carriers. Accordingly, our insurance costs increased significantly, and our ability to continue to obtain insurance even at current prices remains uncertain. If we are unable to maintain adequate insurance coverage, our business could be materially and adversely affected. Additionally, severe disruptions in the domestic and global financial markets could adversely impact the claims paying ability of some insurers. Future downgrades in the ratings of enough insurers could adversely impact both the availability of appropriate insurance coverage and its cost. Because of competitive pressures in our industry, our ability to pass along additional insurance costs to passengers is limited. As a result, further increases in insurance costs or reductions in available insurance coverage could have an adverse impact on our financial results.
We may be a party to litigation in the normal course of business or otherwise, which could affect our financial position and liquidity.
From time to time, we are a party to or otherwise involved in legal proceedings, claims and government inspections or investigations and other legal matters, both inside and outside the United States, arising in the ordinary course of our business or otherwise. We are currently involved in various legal proceedings and claims that have not yet been fully resolved, and additional claims may arise in the future. Legal proceedings can be complex and take many months, or even years, to reach resolution, with the final outcome depending on a number of variables, some of which are not within our control. Litigation is subject to significant uncertainty and may be expensive, time-consuming, and disruptive to our operations. Although we will vigorously defend ourselves in such legal proceedings, their ultimate resolution and potential financial and other impacts on us are uncertain. For these and other reasons, we may choose to settle legal proceedings and claims, regardless of their actual merit. If a legal proceeding is resolved against us, it could result in significant compensatory damages, and in certain circumstances punitive or trebled damages, disgorgement of revenue or profits, remedial corporate measures or injunctive relief imposed on us. If our existing insurance does not cover the amount or types of damages awarded, or if other resolution or actions taken as a result of the legal proceeding were to restrain our ability to operate or market our services, our consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows could be materially adversely affected. In addition, legal proceedings, and any adverse resolution thereof, can result in adverse publicity and damage to our reputation, which could adversely impact our business. Additional information regarding certain legal matters in which we are involved can be found in Part II, Item 1. Legal Proceedings.
Our ability to utilize our NOL Carryforwards may be limited.
Under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the Code), a corporation is generally allowed a deduction for net operating losses (NOLs) carried over from prior taxable years (NOL Carryforwards). As of December 31, 2016, we had available NOL Carryforwards of approximately $10.5 billion for regular federal income tax purposes which will expire, if unused, beginning in 2022, and approximately $3.7 billion for state income tax purposes which will expire, if unused, between
2017 and 2036. Our NOL Carryforwards are subject to adjustment on audit by the Internal Revenue Service and the respective state taxing authorities.
A corporation’s ability to deduct its federal NOL Carryforwards and to utilize certain other available tax attributes can be substantially constrained under the general annual limitation rules of Section 382 of the Code (Section 382) if it undergoes an “ownership change” as defined in Section 382 (generally where cumulative stock ownership changes among material stockholders exceed 50 percent during a rolling three-year period). We experienced an ownership change in connection with our emergence from the Chapter 11 Cases and US Airways Group experienced an ownership change in connection with the Merger. The general limitation rules for a debtor in a bankruptcy case are liberalized where the ownership change occurs upon emergence from bankruptcy. We elected to be covered by certain special rules for federal income tax purposes that permitted approximately $9.0 billion (with $8.9 billion of unlimited NOL still remaining at December 31, 2016) of our federal NOL Carryforwards to be utilized without regard to the annual limitation generally imposed by Section 382. If the special rules are determined not to apply, our ability to utilize such federal NOL Carryforwards may be subject to limitation. Substantially all of our remaining federal NOL Carryforwards (attributable to US Airways Group and its subsidiaries) are subject to limitation under Section 382 as a result of the Merger; however, our ability to utilize such NOL Carryforwards is not anticipated to be effectively constrained as a result of such limitation. Similar limitations may apply for state income tax purposes.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, an ownership change subsequent to our emergence from the Chapter 11 Cases may severely limit or effectively eliminate our ability to utilize our NOL Carryforwards and other tax attributes. To reduce the risk of a potential adverse effect on our ability to utilize our NOL Carryforwards, our Restated Certificate of Incorporation (Certificate of Incorporation) contains transfer restrictions applicable to certain substantial stockholders. These restrictions may adversely affect the ability of certain holders of AAG common stock to dispose of or acquire shares of AAG common stock. Although the purpose of these transfer restrictions is to prevent an ownership change from occurring, no assurance can be given that an ownership change will not occur even with these restrictions in place.
Our ability to use our NOL Carryforwards also will depend on the amount of taxable income generated in future periods. The NOL Carryforwards may expire before we can generate sufficient taxable income to use them.
We have a significant amount of goodwill, which is assessed for impairment at least annually. In addition, we may never realize the full value of our intangible assets or long-lived assets, causing us to record material impairment charges.
Goodwill is not amortized, but is assessed for impairment at least annually. In accordance with applicable accounting standards, we are required to assess our indefinite-lived intangible assets for impairment on an annual basis, or more frequently if conditions indicate that an impairment may have occurred. In addition, we are required to assess certain of our other long-lived assets for impairment if conditions indicate that an impairment may have occurred.
Future impairment of goodwill or other long-lived assets could be recorded in results of operations as a result of changes in assumptions, estimates, or circumstances, some of which are beyond our control. There can be no assurance that a material impairment charge of goodwill or tangible or intangible assets will be avoided. The value of our aircraft could be impacted in future periods by changes in supply and demand for these aircraft. Such changes in supply and demand for certain aircraft types could result from grounding of aircraft by us or other airlines. An impairment charge could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The price of AAG common stock has recently been and may in the future be volatile.
The market price of AAG common stock may fluctuate substantially due to a variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control, including:
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AAG’s operating and financial results failing to meet the expectations of securities analysts or investors;
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changes in financial estimates or recommendations by securities analysts;
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material announcements by us or our competitors;
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movements in fuel prices;
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expectations regarding our capital deployment program, including our share repurchase program and any future dividend payments that may be declared by our Board of Directors;
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new regulatory pronouncements and changes in regulatory guidelines;
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general and industry-specific economic conditions;
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the success or failure of AAG’s integration efforts;
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changes in our key personnel;
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distributions of shares of AAG common stock pursuant to the Plan, including distributions from the disputed claims reserve established under the plan of reorganization upon the resolution of the underlying claims;
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public sales of a substantial number of shares of AAG common stock or issuances of AAG common stock upon the exercise or conversion of convertible securities, options, warrants, restricted stock unit awards, stock appreciation rights, or similar rights;
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increases or decreases in reported holdings by insiders or other significant stockholders;
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fluctuations in trading volume; and
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changes in market values of airline companies as well as general market conditions.
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We cannot guarantee that we will repurchase our common stock pursuant to our share repurchase programs or continue to pay dividends on our common stock or that our capital deployment program will enhance long-term stockholder value. Our capital deployment program could increase the volatility of the price of our common stock and diminish our cash reserves.
Since July 2014, as part of our capital deployment program, our Board of Directors has approved
six
share repurchase programs aggregating
$11.0 billion
of authority. As of
September 30, 2017
,
$677 million
remained unused under a repurchase program that expires on December 31, 2018. Share repurchases under our share repurchase programs may be made through a variety of methods, which may include open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, block trades or accelerated share repurchase transactions. These share repurchase programs do not obligate us to acquire any specific number of shares or to repurchase any specific number of shares for any fixed period, and may be suspended at any time at our discretion. The timing and amount of repurchases, if any, will be subject to market and economic conditions, applicable legal requirements and other relevant factors. The repurchase programs may be limited, suspended or discontinued at any time without prior notice.
Although our Board of Directors commenced declaring quarterly cash dividends in July 2014 as part of our capital deployment program, any future dividends that may be declared and paid from time to time will be subject to market and economic conditions, applicable legal requirements and other relevant factors. We are not obligated to continue a dividend for any fixed period, and payment of dividends may be suspended at any time at our discretion. We will continue to retain future earnings to develop our business, as opportunities arise, and evaluate on a quarterly basis the amount and timing of future dividends based on our operating results, financial condition, capital requirements and general business conditions. The amount and timing of any future dividends may vary, and the payment of any dividend does not assure that we will be able to pay dividends in the future.
In addition, repurchases of AAG common stock pursuant to our share repurchase programs and any future dividends could affect our stock price and increase its volatility. The existence of a share repurchase program and any future dividends could cause our stock price to be higher than it would otherwise be and could potentially reduce the market liquidity for our stock. Additionally, our share repurchase programs and any future dividends will diminish our cash reserves, which may impact our ability to finance future growth and to pursue possible future strategic opportunities and acquisitions. Further, our share repurchase programs may fluctuate such that our cash flow may be insufficient to fully cover our share repurchases. Although our share repurchase programs are intended to enhance long-term stockholder value, there is no assurance that it will do so because the market price of our common stock may decline below the levels at which we repurchased shares of stock and short-term stock price fluctuations could reduce the program’s effectiveness.
Certain provisions of AAG’s Certificate of Incorporation and Bylaws make it difficult for stockholders to change the composition of our Board of Directors and may discourage takeover attempts that some of our stockholders might consider beneficial.
Certain provisions of our Certificate of Incorporation and Second Amended and Restated Bylaws (Bylaws) may have the effect of delaying or preventing changes in control if our Board of Directors determines that such changes in control are not in our best interest and the best interest of our stockholders. These provisions include, among other things, the following:
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advance notice procedures for stockholder proposals to be considered at stockholders’ meetings;
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the ability of our Board of Directors to fill vacancies on the board;
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a prohibition against stockholders taking action by written consent;
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a prohibition against stockholders calling special meetings of stockholders;
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a requirement that holders of at least 80% of the voting power of the shares entitled to vote in the election of directors approve any amendment of our Bylaws submitted to stockholders for approval; and
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super-majority voting requirements to modify or amend specified provisions of our Certificate of Incorporation.
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These provisions are not intended to prevent a takeover, but are intended to protect and maximize the value of the interests of our stockholders. While these provisions have the effect of encouraging persons seeking to acquire control of our company to negotiate with our Board of Directors, they could enable our Board of Directors to prevent a transaction that some, or a majority, of our stockholders might believe to be in their best interest and, in that case, may prevent or discourage attempts to remove and replace incumbent directors. In addition, we are subject to the provisions of Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law, which prohibits business combinations with interested stockholders. Interested stockholders do not include stockholders whose acquisition of our securities is approved by the Board of Directors prior to the investment under Section 203.
AAG’s Certificate of Incorporation and Bylaws include provisions that limit voting and acquisition and disposition of our equity interests.
Our Certificate of Incorporation and Bylaws include certain provisions that limit voting and ownership and disposition of our equity interests. These restrictions may adversely affect the ability of certain holders of AAG common stock and our other equity interests to vote such interests and adversely affect the ability of persons to acquire shares of AAG common stock and our other equity interests.