Average transaction prices likely to rise 1.5 percent
ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale
value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales
will reach $49 billion for the month of June, up 1.5 percent from a
year ago.
ALG expects a decline of $678 million in revenue for automakers
versus June 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to
increase 9.7 percent.
“With the exception of Hyundai and Subaru, all automakers are
showing gains in Average Transaction Prices (ATP) on a year over
year basis. Mercedes-Benz showed the largest gains in ATP, up 5.6%
thanks to the success of the all new E Class and red-hot GLC
Class,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s Chief Industry Analyst. “As a key
indicator of retail industry health, ALG is pleased to see
incentive spending as a percentage of ATP remain relatively flat.
The industry continues to work through high inventory levels, with
incentives being utilized to offload aging inventory. The rise in
ATP can be attributed to more expensive light trucks and
well-equipped new vehicles with high-end features that consumers
are increasingly demanding.”
ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $32,900 in June,
up 1.5 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit
grew by $315 to $3,550. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is
expected to be 10.8 percent, up from 8.1 percent a year ago.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer
June 2017Forecast
June. 2016 May 2017
Percent Changevs.June. 2016
Percent Changevs.May 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini) $ 52,500 $ 51,300 $ 52,800
2.3 % -0.6 % Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $ 59,900
$ 56,700 $ 60,200 5.6 % -0.5 % FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram,
Fiat) $ 33,300 $ 32,800 $ 33,100 1.5 % 0.6 % Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $
35,300 $ 34,900 $ 35,600 1.1 % -0.8 % GM (Buick, Cadillac,
Chevrolet, GMC) $ 37,700 $ 36,500 $ 37,400 3.3 % 0.8 % Honda
(Acura, Honda) $ 27,300 $ 27,000 $ 27,400 1.1 % -0.4 % Hyundai $
22,600 $ 23,500 $ 22,900 -3.8 % -1.3 % Kia $ 22,700 $ 22,600 $
22,800 0.4 % -0.4 % Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $ 27,600 $ 27,100 $
27,800 1.8 % -0.7 % Subaru $ 27,500 $ 27,600 $ 27,800 -0.4 % -1.1 %
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $ 31,200 $ 31,000 $ 31,100 0.6 % 0.3
% Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $ 36,200 $
34,600 $ 34,700 4.6 % 4.3 % Industry $
32,900 $ 32,400 $ 32,800 1.5 % 0.3 %
Incentive per Unit Spending
Manufacturer
June. 2017Forecast
June 2016
May 2017
Percent Changevs.June 2016
Percent Changevs.May 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini) $ 4,157 $ 5,405 $ 4,149
-23.1 % 0.2 % Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $ 4,449 $ 4,746
$ 4,590 -6.3 % -3.1 % FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $
4,389 $ 4,063 $ 4,434 8.0 % -1.0 % Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $ 4,157 $
3,681 $ 4,124 12.9 % 0.8 % GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $
4,361 $ 4,063 $ 4,219 7.3 % 3.4 % Honda (Acura, Honda) $ 2,056 $
1,720 $ 2,048 19.5 % 0.4 % Hyundai $ 3,259 $ 2,291 $ 3,221 42.2 %
1.2 % Kia $ 3,384 $ 2,707 $ 3,358 25.0 % 0.8 % Nissan (Nissan,
Infiniti) $ 4,148 $ 3,451 $ 4,114 20.2 % 0.8 % Subaru $ 1,032 $ 632
$ 995 63.4 % 3.8 % Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $ 2,506 $ 2,293 $
2,591 9.3 % -3.3 % Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $
3,460 $ 3,796 $ 3,432 -8.9 % 0.8 %
Industry $ 3,550 $ 3,235 $ 3,499 9.7 %
1.4 %
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
Manufacturer
June 2017Forecast
June 2016 May 2017
Percent Changevs.June 2016
Percent Changevs.May 2017
BMW (BMW, Mini) 7.9 % 10.5 % 7.9 %
-24.8 % 0.8 % Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 7.4 % 8.4 % 7.6
% -11.3 % -2.6 % FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.2 % 12.4
% 13.4 % 6.4 % -1.6 % Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.8 % 10.5 % 11.6 %
11.6 % 1.7 % GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 11.6 % 11.1 %
11.3 % 3.9 % 2.6 % Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.5 % 6.4 % 7.5 % 18.2 %
0.7 % Hyundai 14.4 % 9.7 % 14.1 % 47.9 % 2.5 % Kia 14.9 % 12.0 %
14.7 % 24.5 % 1.2 % Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 15.0 % 12.7 % 14.8 %
18.0 % 1.6 % Subaru 3.8 % 2.3 % 3.6 % 64.0 % 4.9 % Toyota (Lexus,
Scion, Toyota) 8.0 % 7.4 % 8.3 % 8.6 % -3.6 % Volkswagen (Audi,
Porsche, Volkswagen) 9.6 % 11.0 % 9.9 %
-12.9 % -3.4 % Industry 10.8 % 10.0 %
10.7 % 8.1 % 1.1 %
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in
Canada since 1981.
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