Banks in Focus as Q1 Earnings Season Ramps Up - Earnings Trends
April 10 2014 - 4:25AM
Zacks
The following is an excerpt from this week's Earnings Trends
article. To see the full report, please click here.
Banks in Focus as Q1 Earnings Season Ramps
Up
The 2014 Q1 earnings season has gotten off to a relatively soft
start. Low expectations essentially guarantee that we are unlikely
to get any major negative surprises. But as with economic data, the
market has likely moved past the Q1 numbers and is looking ahead to
the coming periods when earnings growth is expected to
accelerate.
The chart below shows the weekly schedule for Q1 results.
The focus in the coming days will be on the Finance sector, which
was a stalwart growth contributor in recent quarters but is
expected to see a decline in Q1. Total earnings for the Finance
sector, the largest in the S&P 500 expected to bring in almost
1/5th of the index’s total earnings in 2014, are expected to be
down -8.7% in Q1. This follows double-digit earnings growth for the
sector in the last many quarters.
The earnings decline is particularly pronounced for the banking
industry, the largest in the Finance sector accounting for almost
40% of its total earnings. Total earnings for the banking industry
are expected to be down -17.1% from the same period last year. The
brokerage industry, which accounts for about 1/10th of the sector’s
total earnings, is expected suffer -6.8% decline in total earnings
in the quarter.
A combination of effective cost controls, reserve releases,
strength in the mortgage business and only modest improvement in
the core business helped the banking industry scale its prior
cyclical peak in profitability. As you can see in the chart below,
total bank industry earnings are already past the prior peak, even
though returns remain below those levels.
(Note: the data in the chart above pertains solely to the Zacks
M-industry of ‘Major Banks’ – one of the 7 M-industries in the
finance sector, which only includes the 15 major banks in the
S&P 500. Regional banks and the pure-play brokerage firms are
not part of the Major Banks industry and have their own
industries. )
Estimates for the banks and brokers came down as it became
increasingly obvious that weakness in the capital markets business
will add to existing mortgage banking woes. The capital markets
business, particularly on the fixed income side has been weak for a
while and we will likely see a continuation of that trend in Q1,
with fixed income revenues offsetting gains on the advisory sides.
The ever present legal/compliance costs also don’t seem to be going
away either and have effectively become a recurring part of the
business model.
The negative estimate revisions for J.P. Morgan
(JPM), Citigroup (C) and Bank of
America (BAC) among the major banks and Goldman
Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) among
pure-play brokers in recent days all reflect these negative factors
to varying degrees.
On the positive side for the banks, net interest margins appear to
have stabilized and the demand outlook for commercial &
industrial and real-estate loans has started improving. The overall
size of loan portfolios will likely see limited growth, as growth
in consumer categories like credit cards, mortgages and home-equity
loans remain essentially non-existent. The growth in these
categories in Q1 will likely be muted by seasonality factors, but
the expectation is that management teams will talk up the outlook
on that front for the rest of the year.
Overall Q1 expectations remain low, with total earnings for the
S&P 500 expected to be down -4.1% from the same period last
year on +0.7% higher revenues and modestly lower margins. As has
been the trend for more than a year now, estimates for Q1 came down
sharply as the quarter unfolded. The current -4.1% decline in total
Q1 earnings is down from +2.1% growth expected at the start of the
quarter in January.
Current estimates for total S&P 500 earnings in Q1 are down
from what was expected at the start of the quarter in early
January. This magnitude of negative revision to Q1 earnings over
the last three months is greater than what we witnessed in the
comparable period in 2013 Q4, but is broadly in-line with the
magnitude of the 4-quarter average of negative revision.
The chart below shows the magnitude of negative earnings revision
for 2014 Q1 and each of the preceding four quarters over the course
of each quarter.
Estimates for Q1 have fallen across the board, but the trend is
particularly notable for the Retail, Basic Materials, Autos,
Consumer Staples, and the Energy sectors, as the chart below
shows.
With two-thirds of S&P 500 members typically beating earnings
estimates in any reporting cycle, actual Q1 results will almost
certainly be better than these pre-season expectations. But Q1 is
unlikely to repeat the performance of the last few quarters when we
would witness new all-time records for total earnings each
quarter.
Guidance has been overwhelmingly weak for more than a year now,
keeping the revisions trend firmly in the negative direction. Odds
are that we wouldn’t see any change on that front this earnings
season either, bringing down estimates for the rest of the year.
Investors haven’t cared about negative estimate revisions thus far,
but it will be interesting that behavior will remain in place going
forward as well.
Key Points
- The 2014 Q1 earnings season has gotten underway with results
from 26 S&P 500 members (with fiscal quarters ending in
February) already out. The reporting cycle gets into high gear from
next week onwards.
- Total earnings for the 26 S&P 500 companies that have
reported results are up +12.3%, with 57.7% beating earnings
expectations. Revenues for these companies are up +5.4%, with a
revenue ‘beat ratio’ of 42.3%. The performance from these companies
is weaker than what we have seen from this same group of companies
in recent quarters.
- For the S&P 500 companies as whole, total Q1 earnings are
expected to be down -4.1% from the same period last year, on +0.7%
higher revenues and 48 basis points in lower margins. Sequentially,
total earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to be down
-5.9%.
- Estimates fell sharply as the quarter unfolded, with the
current -4.1% decline in total earnings down from expectations of
+2.1% positive growth in early January.
- The growth weakness is broad-based and not concentrated in any
one sector, with 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors expected to show
earnings declines in Q1. Among the major sectors, earnings are
expected at this stage to be down -8.7% in Finance, -7.2% in
Technology, -6.7% in Energy, and -14.5% in Autos. Business Services
and Utilities are the only sectors expected to show double-digit
earnings growth.
- The Q1 earnings season is expected to be the low point of this
year’s earnings picture, both in terms of total earnings as well as
the growth rate. Total quarterly earnings reached an all-time
record in 2013 Q4, but are expected to fall short of that level in
2014 Q1. Expectations for the coming quarters reflect a strong ramp
up, with each of the following three quarters a new all-time
record.
- Guidance has overwhelmingly been negative in recent quarters
and we saw the same trend in place with the initial Q1 reports.
Continuation of that trend through the rest of this earnings season
will result in the by-now all-too-familiar negative revisions to
estimates for 2014 Q2.
- Total earnings in Q2 are currently expected to be up +4.7%,
followed by growth rates of +6.7% in Q3 and +8.7% in Q4. For the
full year, total earnings are expected to be up +7.0% in 2014 and
+11.9% in 2015.
- The bottom-up ‘EPS’ estimate for the S&P 500 for 2014
currently stands at $115.66, while the top-down estimate for the
same is currently at $117.25. For 2015, the bottom-up estimate
remains $129.36, with the top-down estimate from Wall Street
strategists currently at $125.
To see the full Earnings Trends report, please click here.
BANK OF AMER CP (BAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
CITIGROUP INC (C): Free Stock Analysis Report
GOLDMAN SACHS (GS): Free Stock Analysis Report
JPMORGAN CHASE (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report
MORGAN STANLEY (MS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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