Nvidia CDR (NVDA) Quote

That’s no way to run a business. Customers have memories and why piss off your customers? That would just give them incentive and purpose to warm up to our competitors…..whether our product is superior, or not. Horrible idea.

Can you imagine the losses that come from dusty inventory that will NEVER be used?
What about revenue interruptions while the wait is on for the latest and greatest?

This is only part of what is hidden as
“Unrealized losses”

Did you know?
Publicly held companies like NVDA underreport certain aspects that would cause a sell-off

This will be a reckoning soon!
For instance-
Unrealized losses on investment securities for US banks reached $512.9 billion in Q2 2024.

This is 7 TIMES higher than at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Q2 2024 also marked the 11th consecutive quarter of unrealized losses as interest rates continued to pressure the economy.

More to come…

What I have read the numbers are monthly. It wouldn't make sense for and annual volume. They would never come close to satisfying demand and lose a lot of business. I had read starting 40k/mo starting end of year and doubling in 2025

Demand for NVDA Blackwell rising by the day. They should have Priority 1 and Priority 2 waiting list. Priority 1 should have 20 % higher price. This will solve the problem (and more money for us).

Does some one knows production capacity of Blackwell (they are 2 or 3 m each). One place I read 50 to 70 K per year. Another place I read 50 K per month (big difference between two). Which one may be more correct. Thx for early reply.

After a huge week for the markets NVDA IS still not breaking out, and I still think we see 90s again

Political.

Am I seeing this right? I'm showing after hours volume of over 51M shares. That is an unusually very large volume for Nvidia. The potentially good thing is that it is green even though not much of an increase.

In Zacks article today they came out with a hold on Nvdia. Zacks typically gives more of a short term perspective on stocks. It goes along with my current feeling about the near term. I still feel barring any negative news that Nvidia will perform much better in the first two quarters of 2025. Until then, I'm not expecting much and hoping it won't go below 100. I still think even in the first two quarters the stock won't go much above 135-140. For it to get higher, something great has to happen in the last quarter of this year.

They sure don’t want the working man making any money down again

NVD* up 3.5% today vs NVDA
ETF SKRE up 3.26% today (my "short position" )

Not wise? Weird

Have a great weekend!

mac10 thinks this week's Fed rate cut is priced in:

@SuburbanDrone
AI stocks are following the same pattern as last year.

I see no bid for this market until the next FOMC and the election which take place seven weeks from now.

Shorting banks, when all of the central bankers began and continued to raise rates would probably have been a wonderful idea.

Shorting banks. after all of the major central bankers have been lowering rates does not strike me as brilliant or even a tiny little bit wise.

But, GLTY

tw and Bountiful both have their finger on the pulse of this market that is in crisis. (Unbeknownst to most).
I appreciate them both and agree completely.
Trade the crap out of this victim of a market.
Valuations and accurate reporting have never been more important to this OLD trader and you wont get that from these fraudulent practices especially regarding "Unrealized Losses"
I'm short banks.

GL

And Wall Street will continue to do that through the election cycle and deal with the consequences after.

stagflation is unavoidable now bc of the 50 bip cut

wall street is using/pumping AAPL MSFT GS CAT UNH META NVDA to prop up all the major averages

Great informative post. Very well written and the conclusions about the banks and lending tightening up are spot on, in my opinion.

NVDS almost $38 cash out rest NVDA $115s here better hope this holds

The Great Cashout—Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Jamie Dimon, the Waltons ...
CEOs, founders, and heirs are selling stock by the bucketload in the companies that made them billionaires. Reason to panic??

https://www.financial-reality.com/post/it-s-all-bullishit
As it was in August, we won't know until next week the full effects of this week's events.

Make no mistake. 50bps cut, is a panic cut. So, why did the Fed panic?

Most likely, there were four reasons:

The Fed is racking up massive losses.

Political pressure to not crash the markets before the Presidential elections on November 5 (last FOMC meeting before).

The Federal Reserve is genuinely worried about the economy, but especially about debt levels.

Banking sector fragility.

Like I noted two weeks ago, the Fed is accumulating massive losses from its holdings of Treasuries and corporate bonds. This is because it has bought them when they were much more expensive (rates were lower). When rates rose, the value of Treasuries collapsed, generating heavy losses for the Fed.



Monthly summation of remittances of the Federal Reserve due to the Treasury. Source: Miguel Castro and Samuel Jordan-Wood.

So, the one reason the Fed wants to lower rates (to increase the value of Treasuries) is because it wants to save its own *ss, by increasing the value of the Treasuries it holds. A central bank that holds large quantities of government bonds is never even semi-independent, because their value dictates the credibility of the Bank. The Fed tried to go around this problem by labelling the losses as deferred assets. That is, it marked losses as “assets” in its balance sheet. It is obvious that such blatant accounting fraud can fly only for so long. So, the Fed needed to cut to ease the financial burden, on itself.

Markets were expecting a 50bps cut, and so were some of the politicians. However, in actuality, a 50bps cut may turn up badly for the markets, because it signals that the Fed sees some serious weakness in the economy.

I concluded my last weeks piece by noting:

Banks seem somewhat optimistic and they have eased lending standards. There is not much room for leveraging among corporations and especially among households, though, which shows in the stagnation of borrowing. This indicates that the optimism among banks is likely to be a “false positive”. Their optimism can, for example, be based on the assumption that the Fed easing would create favorable conditions for an economic recovery. Due to the very high level of indebtedness of households and corporations, I consider this to be unlikely. This implies that we could see, possibly a drastic, turn into re-tightening of lending standards and softening of credit demand in the coming quarters.

I think this is the risk the Fed is seeing. There is simply too much private and federal debt and if rates stay high, defaults will start to roll in, with also the likelihood of U.S. sovereign debt rising. This would hurt the economy badly.

U.S. banks continue to struggle under a gargantuan amount of unrealized losses. They arise mostly from the same source as with the Fed, i.e. from Treasuries losing value, en masse. We also noted in the August World Economic Outlook of GnS Economics that the outflow of core deposits seem to have re-started. Deposit outflow is a major risk for the banking sector, because it implies waning trust and, as banking is a business of trust, waning trust implies growing fragility in the banking sector. The Fed cannot stop the outflow of deposits, but it can try to diminish the unrealized losses by cutting interest rates, and hoping that Treasury yields follow. At the time of writing, this was not going well with, e.g. the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury note shooting up. This is an (early) indication that the bond market now expects inflation to pick up.

Core deposits in the U.S. banking system. Source: GnS Economics, FDIC

Alas, the Fed eased heavily, because of the losses it and U.S. banks are accumulating and because it sees the risk of the economy breaking. These are not encouraging signs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivots-panics

NVDS $37.29 flip out most let some ride for $115s

Back to $113s hopefully holds down there for now

NVDS $36s look ok. Keep in mind first few minutes funds buy stocks at highest price for 401k holders then we should see a pullback

Today's "Quad Witch" OpEx $4.5 trillion in options and derivatives and futures are set to mature according to Goldman, making it the largest September expiry of all time. The options expiry coincides with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes. The event has a reputation for causing sudden price moves as contracts disappear and traders roll over their existing positions or start new ones"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-fall-fed-frenzy-fades-and-traders-brace-45-trillion-quad-witch-opex

NVDA Catalysts - I know Blackwell delivery start is a pretty good catalyst. Is there any other catalyst before this ?

NVDS short side at play. All eyes on Apple Store sales for 16 start today. Markets can start falling as Apple sales bellwether for the Giant 7 NVDA GOOG MSFT AMZN….

Doesn't look good for today. Looks like it's gonna lose a lot of yesterday's gain. I still don't feel this stock will get above 120 for some time. Maybe in May or June of 2025. Market isn't going to be happy with just beating estimates. They still expect huge estimate beats which isn't realistic. Most likely will exceed estimates but not enough to drive the stock past 120. So I'll just hang tight until then.

Volume was definitely way lower than the daily average.

I was a little disappointed the volume wasn't higher. It seems like people/funds/institutions are holding back.

👍. NVDA looks great for another 2 to 3 years.💰

The key to what you said, " the Fed really set things up in a big way". Yes they did, and I dont believe that is accidental.

That’s the nicest FOAD post that I have ever seen at any chat site.

Very well done!

Today is all sugar buzz for the whole market

Your wisdom and insight is incredible. Perhaps you can share your wonderful knowledge on other boards. Have a good day.

Good call but for those that jumped in at $120 still haven’t gotten excited I’m sure

Many “Newbies” might have waited to buy until after the split - considering that NVDA’s past stock price movement went down after a split occurred.

The stock did get down into the mid to high 90’s. Perhaps they waited until then to buy and are now realizing a gain.

120.00 was where the split was so all the newbies are still down
No excitement yet

The second part of that equation (FOMC + BOJ) should be revealed this evening. Then the chart has relevance. Historically, upon FOMC + BOJ policy collision, the USDJPY implodes shortly thereafter. That would reignite "forced" JPY carry trade unwinding.

Get OpEx out of the way this week, along w/ BOJ policy decision then watch what happens.

The market is in supernova mode ahead of the BOJ tonight. Market may or may not, churn for a few days. In any event, the market will fall off the cliff soon. The Fed really set things up in a big way this time. Get the popcorn out and watch the fireworks.


All my opinion of course.

what are you looking at ?????

RATE CUTS NO HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! INDIVIDUALS CRUSHED AND DAMAGE ALREADY DONE WITH THE HIGH INTEREST RATES ON EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MAUHAHAHAHAHAHAAAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CA CLUNK!!!!! SAME HEAD FAKE EVERYONE ALLWAYS FALLS FOR!!!!!!! DROP CITY!!!! BLAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HERE COMES THE DUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS CALLED A DEAD CAT BOUNCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OR DEAD TURD BOUNCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MAUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nvidia Stock Has 41% Upside, According to 1 Wall Street Analyst

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-41-upside-according-142100832.html

If you review my posts from a few weeks ago, I said NVDA would go up, with the rate cuts, which was coming. Others argued that a rate cut would not help large caps and it was already baked in.

Just have to know what side of the trade to be on.

Good luck to you!

This is many of the woke CEOs going along with this garbage.

What do most business entities try to do - expand and grow. So big business wants cheap labor which is accomplished through illegal immigration.

Additionally, 20 million + have entered the country. These folks couldn't afford products that are produced or sold in the US. But once they get here, not only do they work, as cheap labor, but they now become customers, as these companies have essentially grown their customer base.

A lot of bad forces at play here. You ask why this isn't being covered in the media, or why the politicians aren't pointing this out? Media is mostly propaganda.
The GOP and Dems are two heads on the same snake. The GOP wants the cheap labor for big business and the Dems are fine with it as well, as most of the CEOs are woke, and that cheap labor is a gift to them.

Furthermore, many are given a driver's license and are expected to vote in the upcoming elections, which will benefit the Dems.

Why do you think they resettle foreign "refugees" into specific areas? They are planting seeds and hoping those areas grow, with intentions of flipping those battleground states, like Ohio.

Same with Florida and Texas, both of which are under attack. Most of the people entering illegally are from warm climates and many of them settle in Florida and Texas. If either of those states shift to blue, it would be difficult if not impossible to win a national election. None of this is by accident.

Lots of reasons from a political perspective to allow this to happen. And none of those reasons benefit the American people.

Amazing how quiet the board becomes on NVDA "up" days, eh?

A beautiful thing.

Semis are the place to be

Maybe after the next stock split you will get them at that price!