SEATTLE, Jan. 19, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Austin will be
America's hottest housing market in 2021, leading a list of mostly
Sun Belt cities expected to continue heating up faster than the
nation's large coastal markets, according to a new Zillow® survey of experts.
The booming Texas destination
heads a lineup of sunny and relatively affordable metro areas --
Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver -- that are most likely to outperform
the nation in home value growth, according to a panel of economists
and real estate experts recently surveyed by Zillow.
The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, sponsored by Zillow
and conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC, asks a large panel of
economists, investment strategists and real estate experts for
their predictions about the U.S. housing market. The Q4 survey also
asked about their expectations for 2021 home value growth in 20
large markets compared to the nation1.
An overwhelming 84% of those surveyed said Austin values would out-perform the national
average, compared to just 9% who believe it would fare worse.
Phoenix came in second with 69%,
followed by Nashville (67%),
Tampa (60%), and Denver (56%). Page views on Zillow for-sale
listings in Austin by out-of-town
searchers were up 87% in November compared to 2019.
The top-five metros are all affordable options compared to
expensive coastal areas that have led home appreciation ranks in
recent years, providing relative value for Millennials looking to
take advantage of low mortgage rates to buy their first home. The
top five are also, for the most part, sunny locales. Four of the
five counties holding the largest cities in these MSAs all rank in
the top-third of counties in the contiguous U.S. for average daily
sunlight, according to NASA data analysed in The Washington Post.
Davidson County, home to
Nashville, ranked just below the
midline.
"The pandemic has not upended the housing market so much as
accelerated trends we saw coming into 2020," said Zillow senior
economist Jeff Tucker. "These Sun
Belt destinations are migration magnets thanks to relatively
affordable, family-sized homes, booming economies and sunny
weather. Record-low mortgage rates and the increased demand for
living space, coupled with a surge of Millennials buying their
first homes, will keep the pressure on home prices there for the
foreseeable future."
An improved economic outlook thanks to COVID-19 vaccine
roll-outs and better treatments was pegged as the most likely
tailwind for the housing market in 2021, followed by sustained
strength in first-time home buying among Millennials. It proved a
powerful demand driver in 2020 and is expected to persist for years
to come.
Those looking for homes -- especially their first -- will enter
a competitive market. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage, working
with a trusted agent and taking advantage of online research tools
are a few tips shoppers can use to get a leg up.
Austin was predicted to be the
hottest market in last year's survey, and that proved true. By
mid-December the median list price for homes in the Austin metropolitan area was up 23.6% year
over year -- the largest rise among the 50 largest U.S.
markets.
"During the pandemic I think a lot of people spending a big
portion of their paycheck on rent or mortgage in cities like
New York and San Francisco started working from home and
suddenly had options. Their dollar goes a lot further in the South,
the climate is better, and Austin
has a lot to offer -- from the food scene to outdoor activities and
live music," said Thomas Brown, a
Zillow Premier Agent in Austin and
CEO of The Agency Texas. "Those factors are going to continue
drawing people into the Austin
market in 2021."
Expensive coastal cities are predicted to fall short of the
national average -- 82% of respondents said New York would see sub-par growth in 2021.
San Francisco (77%) and
Los Angeles (67%) round out the
bottom of the 20-city list.
Tight supply conditions and affordability concerns were each
cited by 29% of the panelists as the greatest headwind.
"While sustained tailwinds are forecasted this year across most
of the shifting U.S. housing landscape, certain densely populated
markets with high-priced real estate face prevailing headwinds,"
said Terry Loebs, founder of
Pulsenomics. "Accordingly, home value appreciation rates within
coastal cities such as New York,
San Francisco, and Los Angeles are projected to see a downshift
from last year's remarkable levels."
Metropolitan
Area
|
Share of Survey
Respondents Expecting Market to Outperform National
Average
|
Share Expecting
Market to Perform About the Same as National Average
|
Share Expecting
Market to Underperform National Average
|
Net
Score
|
Austin,
TX
|
84%
|
7%
|
9%
|
76
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
69%
|
22%
|
9%
|
60
|
Nashville,
TN
|
67%
|
22%
|
11%
|
55
|
Tampa,
FL
|
60%
|
35%
|
6%
|
54
|
Denver,
CO
|
56%
|
33%
|
11%
|
44
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
54%
|
30%
|
16%
|
39
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
57%
|
24%
|
19%
|
38
|
Washington,
DC
|
37%
|
38%
|
24%
|
13
|
Riverside,
CA
|
37%
|
32%
|
31%
|
7
|
Miami,
FL
|
34%
|
33%
|
33%
|
1
|
San Diego,
CA
|
31%
|
35%
|
34%
|
-2.8
|
Houston,
TX
|
32%
|
33%
|
35%
|
-2.9
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
35%
|
25%
|
40%
|
-6
|
Seattle,
WA
|
29%
|
26%
|
45%
|
-16
|
Minneapolis,
MN
|
20%
|
38%
|
42%
|
-22
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
13%
|
22%
|
65%
|
-52
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
12%
|
21%
|
67%
|
-56
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
16%
|
7%
|
77%
|
-62
|
New York,
NY
|
5%
|
13%
|
82%
|
-76
|
|
|
1
|
This edition of the
Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 113 experts between
November 23, 2020 and December 8, 2020. The survey was conducted by
Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. The Zillow Home Price
Expectations Survey and any related materials are available through
Zillow and Pulsenomics.
|
About Zillow Group:
Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and
ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's
next chapter.
As the most-visited real estate website in the U.S., Zillow® and
its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling,
buying, renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless
end-to-end service. Zillow Offers® buys and sells homes directly in
dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over
their timeline. Zillow Home Loans™, our affiliate lender, provides
our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure
financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched
Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline
Zillow Offers transactions.
Zillow Group's affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®,
Zillow Offers®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™, Zillow
Closing Services™, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia®, Out East®,
StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal
Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).
About Pulsenomics:
Pulsenomics LLC
(www.pulsenomics.com) is an independent research firm that
specializes in data analytics, opinion research, new product and
index development for institutional clients in the financial and
real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert
surveys and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that
are relevant to effective business management and monitoring
economic health. Pulsenomics LLC is the author of The Home Price
Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, The
Housing Confidence Index, and The Transaction Sentiment Index.
Pulsenomics® , The Housing Confidence Index™, The Transaction
Sentiment Index™, and The Housing Confidence Survey™ are trademarks
of Pulsenomics LLC.
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SOURCE Zillow