MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
PPI for November; Wholesale Inventories for October; University
of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Survey for December; World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates; Canada Industrial
Utilization Rate for 3Q
Opening Call:
Today's Headlines/Must Reads
- Inflation Slowed in China as Lockdowns Spread
- Banks Should Be Wary of Crypto, Top U.S. Regulator Says
- Workers at GM-LG Battery Plant in Ohio Vote to Unionize
- Former Apple Executive Says Company Blundered by Firing Him
After TikTok Video
Follow WSJ markets coverage here .
Stock futures were slightly firmer on Friday ahead of another
important inflation update.
The producer prices index for November is expected by economists
to fall from 8% in October to 7.2%, year-over-year.
A slower pace of factory gate price rises should help reduce
consumer goods inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to be less
aggressive in raising interest rates.
There has already been better news on Friday from China, where a
report showed manufacturers trimming prices by 1.3% for the year to
November.
Some analysts think traders are underestimating the potential
for a benign set of inflation reports in coming days to spark
another bounce in stocks.
"In the next 4 trading sessions are crucial incoming economic
reports and Fed decisions that arguably will determine the path of
markets for the next 6 months," Fundstrat said.
Referring to a CBOE equity put-call ratio at 1.46, Fundstrat
said it was back to 2022 highs and was among the highest levels in
the past 30 years.
"Takeaway? If PPI and CPI come in soft, we expect a fierce
positive market reaction."
Stocks to Watch
Bath & Body Works shares gained 6.3% in after-hours trading
after Daniel Loeb's Third Point hedge fund disclosed a 6% stake in
the company. Loeb questioned governance practices, executive
compensation, financial discipline, investor communications and
board composition.
Broadcom said revenue grew 21% amid strong demand. Its shares
added 3.2% off hours.
CooperCompanies reported a worse-than-expected drop in
fourth-quarter profit. The stock fell 9% after hours.
Costco Wholesale edged down off hours after its sales growth
slowed slightly as some shoppers bought fewer big-ticket
discretionary items.
Chewy reported a swing to a profit, citing improved margins from
supply-chain and pricing initiatives. Its shares lost 2.3% off
hours.
DocuSign reported higher revenue and a loss narrower than
analysts' estimates. Its shares rose 11% off hours.
Lululemon Athletica posted strong sales and earnings gains, but
its inventory levels swelled. Its shares fell 7.5% off hours.
Vail Resorts CEO said booking trends are consistent with
prepandemic levels. Its shares added 1.7% off hours.
Forex:
Economic data scheduled for later could further pressure the
dollar, UniCredit Research said.
The PPI data may show a further easing in price pressures in
November, which could fuel expectations for the Federal Reserve to
slow the pace of interest rate rises on Dec. 14 and prompt "another
EUR/USD assault above this month's high of 1.0594 and then on June
highs above 1.06," UniCredit said.
"A relatively flat University of Michigan sentiment reading is
not expected to inspire the USD either."
With the dollar battling seasonal weakness, the euro has managed
to edge higher, although its gains are likely to be limited, ING
said.
"Our base case is still that EUR/USD will struggle to trade
sustainably above 1.0600, and is mostly facing downside risks into
year-end as the dollar could regain some ground on global risk
uncertainty and rebounding energy prices," ING said, noting the
dollar's safe haven status.
---
Sterling faces a hit from the Bank of England's latest inflation
attitude survey on Friday as it could show inflation expectations
remain high and confirm the public's dissatisfaction with the
central bank's passive approach to raising interest rates,
Commerzbank said.
Inflation expectations remain well above the BOE's 2% target
over a two-year horizon, which makes it difficult for the central
bank in taming inflation and GBPunderlines the risk of increased
volatility in sterling," Commerzbank said.
The "depressed" economic outlook, cautious monetary policy and
continued high inflation continue to "principally put pressure on
sterling."
Rates Market
The recent rally in rates markets looks exaggerated for Societe
Generale, which sees no fundamental factors driving it.
"Inflation remains sticky, labor markets and growth are
resilient, and central banks still have a ways to go before they
end their tightening cycle."
It expected both the Fed and the European Central Bank to raise
interest rates by 50 basis points next week, adding that more rate
rises will be needed.
Energy:
Oil futures wavered in European trading, with prices having
suffered sharp falls this week, as higher inventories pressured
demand.
"The demand side remains broadly bearish, amid a global economic
slowdown, heightened recession risks in the EU and the U.S. and
lingering concerns over growth in China," Fitch said.
It has forecast Brent to average $95 a barrel in 2023, "spurred
by strong, albeit slowing, consumption growth and constraints on
the supply side," but said the "balance of risk to the forecast is
now skewed squarely to the downside."
Metals:
Base metals made solid gains in early London trade, while gold
edged higher, with positive sentiment around China providing
support.
"Metals have broadly edged higher since November with optimism
toward mainland Chinese growth and the likely peaking of the
dollar," Fitch said.
Further optimism has come from investment within China's
property sector and also an easing of Covid-19 measures, Fitch
added. However, it said the slowdown in construction activity in
mainland China, weakening housing markets across developed markets
and worsening financial conditions has kept prices in check.
More Metals Insight
Morgan Stanley has highlighted aluminum, iron ore and
metallurgical coal as their top commodities picks in the China
reopening trade, and said it remained positive on gold, too.
It cited tight supply, hydropower shortage and a demand pickup
in China as reasons to bet on aluminum. For iron ore, it expected
seasonally tight first-half supply and a backlog of infrastructure
projects.
---
Lithium spot-market availability is very tight, and even some
contracted volumes are failing to be delivered, Benchmark Mineral
Intelligence said.
"Looking ahead, a lot of the supply set to [come to] market has
already been signed off under offtake agreement, so it looks like
spot-market availability will remain quite limited. However, high
prices will incentivize producers to keep some material back to
sell on a spot basis...so this could allow for some more
spot-market liquidity when any new projects come to market."
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Workers at GM-LG Battery Plant in Ohio Vote to Unionize
Workers at an Ohio battery plant co-owned by General Motors Co.
voted overwhelmingly to be represented by the United Auto Workers,
bolstering the union as it seeks to solidify its membership amid
the auto industry's push toward electric vehicles.
Employees at the plant voted 710-to-16 in favor of joining the
UAW. The Ultium Cells LLC plant, a joint venture between GM and
South Korea's LG Energy Solution Ltd., began operations in late
August and employs about 900 people.
Former Apple Executive Says Company Blundered by Firing Him
After TikTok Video
Tony Blevins woke up to a 1:30 a.m. phone call.
Apple Inc., his employer for 22 years, demanded that he get a
video on TikTok taken down, according to Mr. Blevins.
Google Ad Software Disrupted for Publishers Large and Small
Google's widely used advertising software for publishers
suffered an outage of more than 2 1/2 hours Thursday evening that
affected numerous publications large and small.
During the outage, publishers who use Google Ad Manager couldn't
make their ad inventory available in exchanges for automated
buying, according to publishers who use the technology. They also
weren't able to load any ads that the publication had sold
directly, the publishers said.
Costco Sales Growth Cools as Consumers Shift Discretionary
Spending
Costco Wholesale Corp. sales growth slowed slightly in the most
recent quarter compared with recent years as some shoppers bought
fewer big-ticket discretionary items.
Comparable sales, those from stores of digital channels
operating for at least 12 months, rose 7.1% in the quarter ended
Nov. 20. That quarterly figure, which excludes currency
fluctuations and gasoline sales, hasn't fallen below 9% over the
past two years. Online sales fell 3.7% from the prior year, Costco
said.
Chinese Property Developers Rise as Sunac Advances Plan for Debt
Restructuring
Shares of Chinese real-estate companies led the Hong Kong
market's upturn Friday, as Sunac China Holdings Ltd. unveiled
progress in restructuring its debt that could bode well for other
highly leveraged private developers.
Among blue chips, China Resources Land Ltd., Longfor Group
Holdings Ltd., China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. and
Country Garden Holdings Co. were some of the top gainers, adding
between 7.3% and 10% by the midday trading break. The Hang Seng
Mainland Properties index gained 7.3%, outshining the benchmark
Hang Seng Index's 1.6% increase.
Inflation Slowed in China as Lockdowns Spread
SINGAPORE-Inflation in China slowed sharply in November as
widespread Covid-19 lockdowns battered spending, emphasizing the
economic cost of a stringent Covid strategy that the government has
now begun to relax.
Economists expect China's move away from using lockdowns and
mass testing to snuff out even tiny outbreaks will be a gradual and
possibly bumpy process, likely meaning growth and inflation will
remain subdued well into 2023.
Banks Should Be Wary of Crypto, Top U.S. Regulator Says
Banks should take a cautious approach to digital asset markets,
including discussing any new plans with regulators, a top U.S.
banking authority said, pointing to ongoing turmoil among crypto
firms.
Crypto industry risk management lacks maturity, and some
industry practices mean trouble in one firm could spill over to
others, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said
Thursday.
5 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest-rate
decision
During the Federal Reserve's last battle with high inflation in
the 1970s and 1980s, Fed officials didn't talk much at all
publicly. When pressed for information on Capitol Hill about the
outlook for the economy and interest rates, former Fed Chairman
Paul Volcker would disappear behind a thickening cloud of cigar
smoke. (Smoking was allowed at hearings in those days.)
Forty years later, there will be no ashtrays in sight when Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell holds a post-meeting news conference. And
investors and economists are going to get a slew of information,
not just smoke, from the central bank.
U.S. to Levy Human-Rights Sanctions on Russia, China
WASHINGTON-The U.S. is set to levy fresh sanctions against
Russia and China on Friday, actions that include targeting Russia's
deployment of Iranian drones in Ukraine, alleged human-rights abuse
by both nations and Beijing's support of alleged illegal fishing in
the Pacific, according to officials familiar with the matter.
The bulk of the expected sanctions are to be imposed under the
Global Magnitsky Act, named after a whistleblower who died in a
Moscow jail after accusing officials of corruption. The U.S., by
using those powers to sanction high-profile government, military
and business officials accused of human-rights abuses and
corruption, says it aims to hold them accountable and deter
others.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
Laurentian Bank of Canada 4Q
Economic Indicators (ET):
0830 3Q Industrial capacity utilization rate
Expected Major Events for Friday
07:00/GER: 3Q Labour cost index
09:30/UK: Nov Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes
Survey
13:30/CAN: 3Q Industrial capacity utilization rates
13:30/US: Nov PPI
15:00/US: Nov Online Help Wanted Index
15:00/US: Oct Monthly Wholesale Trade
15:00/US: Dec University of Michigan Survey of Consumers -
preliminary
17:00/US: World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
(WASDE)
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Friday
Centene Corp (CNC) is expected to report for Full year.
Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGPR) is expected to report for 1Q.
Johnson Outdoors (JOUT) is expected to report $0.37 for 4Q.
Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB.T,LRCDF) is expected to report
$1.21 for 4Q.
SIFCO Industries (SIF) is expected to report for 4Q.
Sigmatron International Inc (SGMA) is expected to report for
2Q.
Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS
American Homes 4 Rent Raised to Buy From Neutral by Goldman
Sachs
Apartment Income REIT Raised to Buy From Sell by Goldman
Sachs
Applovin Cut to Neutral From Buy by BTIG
AT&T Raised to Buy From Hold by Argus Research
AvalonBay Cut to Neutral From Buy by Goldman Sachs
AVROBIO Raised to Buy From Neutral by BTIG
Casey's General Stores Cut to Neutral From Buy by Northcoast
Research
DTE Energy Raised to Outperform From Peer Perform by Wolfe
Research
Fulgent Genetics Cut to Neutral From Overweight by Piper
Sandler
Hershey Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS
Invitation Homes Cut to Neutral From Buy by Goldman Sachs
KVH Industries Cut to Market Perform From Strong Buy by Raymond
James
Lumos Pharma Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies
Mid-America Apartment Raised to Buy From Neutral by Goldman
Sachs
Mirati Therapeutics Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by BMO
Capital
Mirati Therapeutics Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP
Morgan
Mondelez Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Cut to Accumulate From Buy by Gordon
Haskett
Omeros Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS
Polaris Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by BMO Capital
Principal Financial Cut to Underperform From Neutral by Credit
Suisse
Prometheus Biosciences Shares Continue to Rally as Analysts
Cheer
Relmada Therapeutics Shares Plumb New Depths After Lead Program
Setback
Salesforce Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird
Sinclair Broadcast Cut to Underweight From Neutral by JP
Morgan
Sovos Brands Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS
Unity Software Cut to Neutral From Buy by BTIG
Vivint Smart Home Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP
Morgan
Vulcan Materials Raised to Overweight From Neutral by JP
Morgan
Wolverine World Wide Cut to Hold From Buy by Williams
Trading
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal
newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2022 06:06 ET (11:06 GMT)
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