MARKET SNAPSHOT: Stock Investors Can't Relax When News Is Likely To Bite Even In The Dog Days Of Summer
August 12 2018 - 8:14PM
Dow Jones News
By Anora M. Gaudiano, MarketWatch
The good news about second-quarter earnings growth is that it
was even better than in the previous quarter, and positive guidance
from executives implies a certain level of optimism about the rest
of the year.
The bad news is that all of that is now priced into the market.
And with the dog days of summer now upon us, the market in the next
few weeks is likely to be roused only when investors react to major
headline news.
Read: Wall Street's sleepy summer could be setting up the next
stage of stocks' bull run
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-sleepy-summer-could-be-setting-up-the-next-stage-of-stocks-bull-run-2018-07-25)
A good example of such a mini-shock in the news came on Friday,
when global equity markets, especially in the developing world
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/emerging-markets-slump-as-turkish-lira-plunges-2018-08-10),
sold off in reaction to Turkey's currency crisis, which saw that
country's currency plunge 15% in the face of an escalating trade
dispute with the U.S.
The S&P 500
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-pulled-into-global-selloff-as-turkeys-currency-crisis-raises-the-alarm-2018-08-10)
fell 0.7% on Friday, turning what would have a been modest weekly
gain into a loss and breaking a five-week advance.
"There is still a lot of uncertainty -- trade wars with China,
sanctions against Russia, Turkey's currency crisis -- but we always
have these kinds of risks in the background," said Karyn Cavanaugh,
senior market strategist at Voya Financial.
"In the long run, equities follow earnings and so far the
full-year estimate for 2018 is holding up," Cavanaugh said.
The S&P 500 is up about 6% year to date, having risen nearly
10% since the February lows. Much of that advance has been
underpinned by stellar earnings growth and a healthy economy, while
investors largely chose to shrug off protectionist measures like
tariffs.
One of the reasons investors so far have treated trade wars as a
distant possibility rather than an immediate threat might have to
do how little the existing tariffs impacted profits of large
multinational corporations.
In fact, companies with larger global exposure reported higher
profit growth than their more domestically oriented counterparts,
according John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
Cavanaugh noted that there are reasons to remain optimistic
about the economy.
"I still think investors are underestimating corporate tax cuts
and their full impact on the economy. Companies are spending a lot
on capital expenditures, which will improve productivity and future
profits," Cavanaugh said.
As to the Turkish currency crisis, Cavanaugh said that it is not
likely to have a significant impact on U.S. markets, though there
are lots of other risks that can drive volatility higher.
"Before we get to the third-quarter earnings season we would
have to deal with mid-term elections, continued trade disputes and
other geopolitical news. But even if we end the year at current
levels, it's still a good return for investors," Cavanaugh
said.
Next week, investors will be able to assess the health of the
American consumer.
Retail-sales data are scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
Eastern, while some of the largest retailers are also scheduled to
report their second-quarter earnings during the week, including
Home Depot Inc.(HD) Macy's Inc.(M) and Walmart Inc.(WMT).
Aside from retail sales, investors will learn about
productivity, with the report due at 8:30 a.m. and industrial
productions, due at 9:15 a.m. on Wednesday.
Also on Wednesday, a housing-market index and business
inventories are due at 10 a.m. Data on consumer sentiment is
scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2018 19:59 ET (23:59 GMT)
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