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Upcoming Economic Highlights: FOMC Minutes, Earnings Reports, and Global Indicators

Bruno T
Analysis & Opinion
May 18 2024 8:47AM

The upcoming week in the United States is expected to be relatively calm, with a significant focus on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and various appearances by Federal Reserve officials. Traders will be keenly watching for any signs indicating when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Current economic data points to some cooling in the economy, although price pressures persist. Comments from several Fed officials suggest borrowing costs may remain high for a longer period.

Key data releases include:

  • S&P Global PMIs: An important indicator of economic health in the manufacturing and services sectors.
  • Durable Goods Orders: Expected to grow for the third consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Final readings to gauge consumer confidence.
  • Home Sales: Existing and new home sales are anticipated to decline.

The earnings season continues with major companies like Palo Alto Networks, Lowe’s, Nvidia, PDD Holdings, TJX Companies, Analog Devices, Synopsis, Target, and Intuit reporting their quarterly results.

Canada, Mexico, and Chile

  • Canada: Updates on inflation and retail sales will be closely monitored.
  • Mexico: Final GDP growth figures and mid-month inflation data will be released.
  • Chile: An interest rate decision and GDP growth numbers are expected, contributing to the market buzz in the region.

United Kingdom

The economic calendar in the UK is packed with key indicators:

  • Inflation: Annual inflation likely slowed to 2.1% in April, the lowest since June 2021, nearing the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Core inflation is expected to decrease to 3.7%, the lowest since October 2021.
  • Retail Sales: Anticipated to drop for the first time in four months.
  • Flash PMI Surveys: Expected to show continued growth in the service sector and a lesser contraction in manufacturing.
  • Other Key Indicators: Public sector net borrowing, Gfk consumer confidence, and CBI factory orders.

Europe

  • Euro Area, Germany, and France: Flash PMI data will be released, with expectations of faster expansion in the service sector and reduced contraction in manufacturing.
  • Euro Area Consumer Confidence: Predicted to improve to the highest level since February 2022.
  • Germany: Producer prices are expected to increase for the second consecutive month in April, albeit at a slower pace. Other data to watch include the Euro Area’s balance of trade, negotiated wages, Germany’s final Q1 GDP data, and Turkey’s interest rate decision.

Asia

  • China: Investors are on high alert for details around China’s plans to purchase unsold homes and rescue its crisis-ridden property market. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to hold its loan prime rates unchanged on Monday.
  • Japan: April’s CPI print is expected to show further softening in underlying inflation, with a narrowing trade deficit and declining March machinery orders. May PMI figures and the Reuters Tankan index are also awaited.
  • India, South Korea, Indonesia: PMI data is anticipated, with central banks in South Korea and Indonesia expected to hold rates unchanged.
  • Thailand and Malaysia: Thailand will release its first-quarter GDP, while Malaysia will unveil April’s CPI.

Australia

Investors will be treated to a batch of forward-looking indicators, including:

  • Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index: Provides insight into consumer confidence.
  • PMI Prints: To gauge the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors.
  • RBA Minutes: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its last meeting, offering clues on future monetary policy.

Overall, the week ahead promises a mix of critical economic data and earnings reports that will shape market sentiments across the globe.