prototype_101
9 hours ago
Broadcom Inc., Broadex Technologies Co., Ltd., Ciena Corporation, Cisco Systems, Inc., Coherent Corp., Enablence, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Development LP, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., Infinera Corporation, Intel Corporation, Lightwave Logic, Inc., LioniX International, Lumentum Holdings, Inc., MACOM, NokiaTechnologies, Q.ANT GmbH, TE Connectivity, Teem Photonics, VLC Photonics S.L
Space Exploration Investment Drives Photonic Integrated Circuits Market to Reach US$ 98.7 Billion by 2031: TMR Study
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/space-exploration-investment-drives-photonic-113000427.html
LWLG is the KEY to this project!!!
prototype_101
9 hours ago
Ayars Lab, The company manufactured approximately 10,000 optical chiplets in 2023 and expects similar volumes this year.
sound familiar? sounds much like the volumes LWLG is projecting as Samples in 2024 of 7900 Modulators as it Ramps in 2025 and is set for its Mass Commercialization 2026, now if LWLG also has Ayar project under NDA, just imagine what happens to LWLG's ramp in 2025/2026!!
https://www.gazettabyte.com/home/2024/5/18/has-the-era-of-co-packaged-optics-finally-arrived.html
Direct evidence connection between GlobalFoundries, (Intel)Ayar Labs, LWLG EO polymers. Note that LWLG is not referenced, however Carsten Eschenbaum, CTO of SilOriX, and Christian Koos are listed authors on the paper. We all know the connection to LWLG and SilOriX and Christian Koos.
White Paper - Hybrid Integration of Exotic Materials in CMOS Platform
Deniz Onural is at Boston University in their Silicon Photonics Lab. Hayk Gevorgyan is a Senior Photonics Device Engineer at Ayar Labs. Milos Popovic is also at Boston University and a co-founder at Ayar Labs.
This paper describes the BEOL process for integrating EO polymers in ring modulators on wafers supplied by GlobalFoundries.
Title: “Towards Hybrid Integration of Exotic Materials in an Electronic-Photonic CMOS Platform via Substrate Removal”
Abstract: “We demonstrate direct access to the silicon device layer of a monolithic CMOS electronics-photonics platform with a full-digital back-end-metal stack, in post-fabrication at die level, allowing the integration of functional materials (e.g. into slot waveguides).”
Paper requires payment to view. For those extra curious who want to read the details, go ahead and support Optica by purchasing the white paper.
-KCC
https://opg.optica.org/abstract.cfm?uri=CLEO_SI-2023-STh3H.4
Reddit link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/LWLG/comments/154a4rw/white_paper_hybrid_integration_of_exotic/
LWLG to the rescue of Intel/Ayar/GF!!! Today, silicon microring modulators are perceived as promising to implement such links; however, they provide limited bandwidth and need thermal stabilization systems.
LWLG has NO COMPETITION!!!!
NOTHING EVEN CLOSE!!!!
Intel/Ayar MRR fatal issues solved by LWLG Polymers, just read posts #133274_#133275_#133276 and understand the following about the position LWLG is currently in, here to summarize for you,
#133274 Intel/Ayar for many years now have focused on their Next-Gen Photonics solution using silicon based MRR's, but there is an inherent problem with this technology, temperature control, which cannot be solved, at least not economically, read this to better understand,
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171251782
#122275 LWLG Polymers CAN solve the issues that Intel/Ayars cannot, therefore it is a strong probability that Intel/Ayar and LWLG are working together under NDA's currently, read this to better understand,
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171251787
#133276 Intel in 2022 after a handful of years selling Photonics devices achieved RECORD unit volume of about 2 million units!! Here KCC points out that LWLG can achieve these same volumes, perhaps even more, with one small Foundry & one Customer!! read this to better understand,
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171251790
prototype_101
10 hours ago
LWLG is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks on Wall Street.
VALUATION & NEAR TERM PROSPECTS:
VALUATION:
LWLG has SUCCEEDED where the INDUSTRY has FAILED for over 40 years!!!! The technology is worth BILLION$$$
If you look at the VWAPS LWLG is undervalued, and based on Developments and IP to-date TODAY the fair valuation should be $1-$2 Billion which is roughly $8 to $17 range
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173919132&txt2find=40%20years
1. SCREENING
How many have valuations of $500m or more and have the HOLY GRAIL of PHOTONICS in-hand today
Answer: just one it's LWLG!!!
2. SHORT POSITION
For now, the company issued 1,453,332 new shares during the 4th quarter. Short interest increased by 89,799 shares bringing the total number of shares owned by investors to 140,503,131.
Institutions that report to Fintel, Nasdaq, and Whale Wisdom increased their ownership by 1,467,119 shares to 32.120,876. Individuals, which includes small institutional investors who are not required to report their ownership, increased their ownership by 76,012 shares to 108,383,018 shares.
In percentage terms, individuals own 92.91%, institutions own 26.17%, and short sellers have supplied 19.08% equaling 100%. In other words, there was very little change in ownership in the 4th quarter.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173954156
3. THE EVIDENCE
1) There are deals under negotiation, and investors now know that these are BIG DEALS because of the additional requirements disclosed of the potential Customers wanted to be assured of
a) Financial strength for a LT relationship
b) ability to not have only a single source for the Perk supply, ie, perhaps another site will be opened by LWLG or perhaps some other arrangements will be made to accommodate these big players!!
2) Foundries Volume Scaling Achieved!! Lebby said "BIG MILESTONE!!"
how many times are Shorts going to keep trying to deceive Longs on this one!!!
here read this post >>
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173959736
3) Reliability/Stability is PROVEN 100% already!! Lebby already stood up at OFC March 2023 and told hundreds of Industry insiders that LWLG's Reliability/Stability had been proven!! And at ECOC 2023 Lebby presented UNDENIABLE proof in his presentation!! And at OFC 2024 Lebby presented the proof of LWLG devices on 200mm large Foundry wafers!!! The data has been absolutely ASTOUNDING!!! here see for yourselves,
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/307dbc8b-e212-48ba-9968-8cef3f6b5188/1bd96423-05f6-76f0-82d8-2a80d7a40691?origin=2
Of course, that doesn't mean the Google's and Amazon's don't want to see additional data, OR, are they just playing that card to gain BETTER PRICING?
NEAR TERM PROSPECTS:
HUGE HUGE HUGE!!!! Lebby is working on finalizing BIG DEALS with the BIGGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD!!!! here
with Cisco, Intel, Google, Ciena as LWLG Customers I wouldn't want to be stuck holding the Old Maid "Short" card when Lebby drops additional Licensing and Tech Transfer Agreements in 2024!!
there are 20 Million Shorts holding that Old Maid card currently!!
TWST: Do you see your ideal customers like Cisco or whoever makes these particular modulation devices? Are they the ones who are going to buy?
Dr. Lebby: Yes, they will — a lot of these larger companies. The Ciscos of this world as well as the Intels and the Cienas, these types of players, Googles and others. A lot of these folks are actually vertically integrated. So they actually do a lot of the things themselves. And some of the parts they send out to foundries or to contract manufacturers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LWLG/comments/15twmqr/interview_with_dr_lebby_august_17_2023/
Folks, these are pretty bold statements by Lebby, and Lebby is one of the top Luminaries of the photonics Industry, personally I would NOT want to bet against him!!!
prototype_101
1 day ago
Moshe Nazarathy
Professor of Electrical Engineering, Technion - and proven Entrepreneur
I have watched this ultra energy-efficient ultra high bandwidth ultra compact technology evolve and improve over a long time and it is evident that it is the front runner
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/polariton-technologies_polariton-opticalcommunications-oband-activity-7222612749044903936-48uL/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Moshe Nazarathy, PhD., is a professor Emeritus with the Electrical Engineering Department of the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Fellow of the IEEE and of the OSA. Moshe holds over 30 patents/patent-applications, 14 of which are assigned to the Technion, and has published over 230 refereed papers and conference proceedings. Moshe’s main research interests are ultra-high-speed, energy-efficient (green) /Photonic/Analog/Digital/Communication/Signal-Processing and ultra-accurate photonic sensors.
Moshe obtained his B.Sc. cum laude and Doctor of Science EE degrees at the Technion. During the years 1982-1984 he was a Post-Doctoral Researcher and adjunct Lecturer at Stanford University’s Information Systems laboratory. He subsequently pursued an industrial career, from 1984-1988 as Researcher at Hewlett Packard's Photonics and Instruments Laboratory. In 1988 he co-founded Harmonic Inc. (HLIT:NASD) in the Silicon Valley, was Senior VP R&D, and corporate CTO, and served as member of Harmonic's board of directors from 1988 to 2001. In 1995 he set up the Research center of Harmonic in Israel and was its General Manager until 2000. In 2000-2001 Moshe returned to the Silicon Valley as VP of Engineering to oversee Harmonic’s merger with Divicom Inc., heading a combined R&D team of hundreds of engineers. Altogether, at Harmonic, Moshe contributed to the stabilization and creation of thousands of jobs, in the US, Israel and world-wide. In 2001, having completed the merger mission, Moshe retired from Harmonic. He then served until 2015 as a Technology Venture Partner with Giza Ventures, a leading VC firm in Israel, as well as on the advisory board of several start-up companies and also assumed a visiting position at the Technion in the Viterbi Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) Faculty. In 2007 he became a tenured Associate Professor at the Technion and in 2014 he was granted the rank of tenured Full Professor. As part of his contribution to the Technion ECE, Moshe served in 2015-2018 as Head, Center for Communication and Information Technologies (CCIT) Industrial Affiliates Program (IAP), developing and expanding the ECE academia-to-industry technology transfer process. Since Oct 2021, when he became Professor Emeritus, Moshe has engaged in intense photonic research aiming to disrupt short-reach photonic interconnects for datacenters, AI workloads, and the Cloud, as well as conceive a new generation of ultra-sensitive photonic sensors.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/moshe-nazarathy-1587109/
Folks, this is yet another HUGE endorsement of LWLG Polymers which investors already learned from an OFC released Paper that Polariton was powering its Plasmonic modulators with LWLG Polymers!!
Gamco
2 days ago
LIGHTWAVE LOGIC INC FILES FOR STOCK SHELF OF UP TO $100 MLN – SEC FILING
Lightwave Logic, Inc.
$100,000,000 of Common Stock
Lightwave Logic, Inc., a Nevada corporation (“us”, “we”, “our”, or the “Company”) may offer and sell from time to time, in one or more series or issuances and on terms that we will determine at the time of the offering, shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”) described in this prospectus, up to an aggregate amount of $100,000,000.
This prospectus provides you with a general description of the securities offered. Each time we offer and sell securities, we will file a prospectus supplement to this prospectus that contains specific information about the offering and, if applicable, the amounts, prices and terms of the securities. Such supplements may also add, update or change information contained in this prospectus. You should carefully read this prospectus and the applicable prospectus supplement before you invest in any of our securities. This prospectus may not be used to consummate sales of securities unless accompanied by a prospectus supplement.
We may offer and sell the securities described in this prospectus and any prospectus supplement directly to our stockholders or to other purchasers or through agents on our behalf or through underwriters or dealers as designated from time to time. If any agents or underwriters are involved in the sale of any of these securities, the applicable prospectus supplement will provide the names of the agents or underwriters and any applicable fees, commission or discounts.
Our Common Stock is currently quoted on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “LWLG”. On July 22, 2024 the last reported sale price of our Common Stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market was $3.53 per share.
prototype_101
2 days ago
teddybear AGAIN FOR 10th TIME!!!! >>> I've called you and your bff out multiple times now to defend WHY anyone in their right mind would say TFLN will be the material that is the winner in Photonics!!! It is ABSURDLY stupid as those that would TOUT IT!!!!
LWLG's TOP Competition is TFLN which is LAUGHABLE!!!
TFLN? here worth another LQQk,
TFLN isn’t ready. Unless HyperLight drastically expanded their production line and figured out their stability issues, they aren’t able to supply the market.
Liobate. No. Luxtelligence and it’s customers. No. Lightium is the new guy. No, years away. Rapid Photonics. Who? Ori-Chip. Maybe if anyone. NanoLN…monopoly on TFLN wafers hence why Luxtelligence and Lightium exist. Eoptolink uses HyperLight’s PICs because their own Chinese suppliers can’t supply…and Eopolink isn’t selling. And why is that…go to the paragraph above.
“The volume will act as a barrier.” LOL for TFLN you mean Markie?
-KCC
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174320206
HyperLight is TFLN's #1 leading company in world!!! Check out HyperLight's latest Development of "gold-box" TFLN modulators which they are proudly showcasing at CLEO next week!!! Too funny!!!
https://cleo24.mapyourshow.com/8_0/exhibitor/exhibitor-details.cfm?exhid=209&shareguid=0C02EFD5-B1E7-126B-A742469AED53E0F4
Hyperlight is showcasing its TFLN GOLD BOX modulator as their PRIZE DEVELOPMENT!!! TOO FUNNY!!!!
Hyperlight is supposedly the #1 TFLN company in the world!!!!!
This is where LWLG was about 5 years ago!!!!
here's a sample meeting of a Google/Amazon/Nvidia etc CEO with their Chief Engineer of Photonics
CEO, so what do you think we should use for our true next-gen internet transmissions solution?
ENG, well we've been working hard to help you decide the BEST solution and here's what we've got, Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, ok, so then TFLN must have all those things we spoke about right? Is TFLN incredibly small so as to free up space in the Transceiver box so we don't have to implement Co-Packaged Optics any time within the next several generations?
ENG, well no, actually LWLG Polymers fit 120 devices in the same space TFLN fits only 8, but Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, ok, well then TFLN must be using the least power right?
ENG, well no, actually LWLG Polymers is the ONLY solution operating at sub-1Volt that ELIMINATE the power hungry and expensive Driver Chip, but Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, ok, well then TFLN must have the lowest Optical Losses and will save us money on requiring less DSP usage right?
ENG, well no, actually LWLG Polymers has MUCH LOWER Optical Losses, but Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, ok well TFLN must be SUPER COMPATIBLE with Standard Silicon Foundries right?
ENG, well no, actually LWLG Polymers are SUPER COMPATIBLE with Standard Silicon Foundries and we are not sure whether TFLN can be "shoehorned in" to a Silicon Foundry PDK yet but there are quite a few companies trying to do that right now, but Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, ok, well I've heard that TFLN does not yet have a 200Gbs device capable of being mass produced at a large SiPh Foundry on 200mm Wafers?
ENG, sorry sir, NO they don't yet, but they are working really hard on that right now!! And Hyperlight the #1 TFLN Development company said in about 3 MORE YEARS they could possibly get this done!!!
CEO, what about LWLG Polymers, can they mass produce a 200Gbs device on 200mm Wafers at a large Foundry?
ENG, well YES sir, they just got done demonstrating perfect Open Eyes of that very device at OFC to MANY Tier1's along with Research Analysts, etc, it was VERY IMPRESSIVE indeed, I was there!!! BUT may I remind you, Mark L says TFLN is going to be the winner of all the materials out there
CEO, well I actually know Michael Lebby and I know of all his credentials in leadership of the Photonics Industry, but I really hadn't considered what you are telling me about Mark L telling everyone that TFLN is the way to go, interesting, well I've come to my decision
ENG, well did I convince you? Are you going with TFLN as Mark L says is going to be the winner?
CEO, no actually I'm going with Lebby/LWLG and YOU'RE FIRED!!!
Oh and one more thing, LWLG's technology has HEADROOM for at least a decade of future generations!!
TFLN does NOT!!!
Here from the 2023 ASM Lebby quoted a Foundry as saying the following "At our Foundry we are worried about an investment into TFLN, it may only be for one generation, but with (LWLG) Polymers our investment would be worthwhile and a better ROI"
LWLG beats ALL Next-Gen Competitors hands down!!! Let's compare,
Understanding Figure of Merit (FOM) the BEST place to be on the chart shown on Slide 47 is the TOP and RIGHT of the chart, and notice this is EXACTLY where LWLG is shown as compared to the competing Next-Gen challengers!!!
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/23d26d3e-c498-431f-ba5c-2250e5f374cb/9bec8dfc-0108-5227-4f5b-d31f67ae623a?origin=2
LWLG tops ALL competition in FOM scores by far!!!!
Let's discuss the Competition >> from the ASM video starting at about 21:06 investors learn that amazingly there is no REAL competition to LWLG's technology for transmitting data!!! The first slide on competition shown is #25 and it has columns for each of the competitive products and then down the page a list of attributes along with the comparable Ratings for each of them, LWLG's Polymers are by far and away TONS THE BEST versus ALL the competitors!!
Let's review each of the attributes and see why LWLG's technology is SO SUPERIOR to any/all of them
1) SPEED >> LWLG is TONS THE BEST with speeds over 100GHz with HEADROOM to go MUCH FASTER!!!!! The rest of the competitors MAX OUT in the 30GHz - 70GHz range!!!
2) SIZE >> LWLG's slot modulator is the smallest, InP comes closest, but LNb, TFLN, and BTO are all MUCH BIGGER, in fact in another slide Lebby compares LWLG's slot modulator array to TFLN and in the space where 8 TFLN modulators sit, there could be 15 times as many LWLG slot modulators (120 modualtors!!)
3) POWER (Voltage) >> Only LWLG's technology is at sub 1 volt, SiP up to 5 volts, InP up to 7 volts, LNb up to 40 volts, TFLN up to 5 volts, BTO up to 3 volts
4) OPTICAL LOSS >> again LWLG slot is BEST with 3-8Db, SiP up to 20Db, InP up to 10Db, LNb up to 12Db, TFLN up to 15Db, BTO up to 12Db
5) ENERGY CONSUMPTION >> LWLG is BEST again with just 5pj/bit!!! SiP up to 20pj/bit, InP up to 40pj/bit, LNb up to 100pj/bit, TFLN up to 20pj/bit, BTO up to 20pj/bit
6) STABILITY >> again LWLG is the BEST, while SiP and InP are also very Stabile, the newcomers BTO and TFLN are NOT stabile enough for commercial acceptance!!
7) FOUNDRY COMPATABILITY >> Only LWLG and SiP use "Standard SiP PDK Fabrication", InP, LNb, TFLN and BTO are NOT able to use "Standard SiP PDK Fabrication" they all require their own Foundries
8) REQUIRES DRIVER (Expensive & Power Hungry!!!!) >> Only LWLG at sub 1 volt can ELIMINATE THE DRIVER!!!!! This is HUGE HUGE HUGE!!!!
Lebby also illustrates all of this at 25:18 marker with Slide #29 where the BEST technology would be found as HIGH UP and as FAR TO THE RIGHT as can be, notice ONLY one technology is placed there and it is of course LWLG in the light green shaded rectangle!!!
Folks, see it for yourselves starting at 21:06, LWLG is the hands down WINNER of the TRUE NEXT-GEN competition!!! NOTHING else is even close!!!!
prototype_101
2 days ago
Ha!! Too funny!! Shorts playbook truly out of pages now as this snake oil salesman is trying to get investors to believe that LWLG who has successfully mass produced 200Gbs Modulators on 200mm Wafers with ALL PERFECT ATTRIBUTES and has "a constant stream of Wafers" coming back from multiple Foundries on 3 Continents does NOT have a single Transceiver maker working with them!!!
Here, from the ASM presentation,
Slide 15
- World-class performance
- 100 Gbaud, 200 Gbit/s, Vdrive < 1 V
- Perfect Open Eyes
- Ideal for low voltage 800Gbps 4 lane pluggable transceivers
Slide 26
- 200Gbps, 1V slot demonstrations
- O-band design (1310nm)
- Foundry/packaging/transceiver out-sourcing
- Commercial partnering/licensing (materials/device)
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/307dbc8b-e212-48ba-9968-8cef3f6b5188/a669fa0d-6741-ad73-e523-69a20e3cdd15?origin=2
LWLG is literally the ONLY company in the world that can offer 200Gbs speed with such INCREDIBLE PERFORMANCE, and yet teddybear wants you to believe that there is NOT a single Transceiver maker working with them today!!!
Folks, you just can't make this shit up!!!
LWLG is now working with a couple dozen Tier 1's and the interest has grown exponentially since the March 2024 OFC demos!!!
Here again is the post I put up showing in black and white, the TRUTH!!
Gemini, which of the following would include makers of transceivers, electro-optic device manufacturers, contract manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, foundries, packaging and assembly manufacturers?
Out of the choices you provided, two main categories would include makers of transceivers,
Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): These are the companies that design and sell finished electronic products under their own brand name. They may outsource the manufacturing of some or all of the components to contract manufacturers (CMs) but are responsible for the overall design and functionality of the product.
Contract Manufacturers (CMs): These companies manufacture electronic components and products according to the specifications provided by OEMs. They may also provide other services such as design for manufacturability (DFM) and testing.
teddybear, your well is running so dry that you would actually try to peddle this snake oil that LWLG, a maker of outstanding performance true Next-gen Modulators that are used in Transceivers, now producing 200Gbs/lane proven with Outstanding Specs in High Volume Production on 200mm Wafers and also capable of being produced at Foundries on 3 Continents, is NOT working with any Transceiver makers!!! wow, just wow!!!!
Lebby has already told you who the Customers would be, some of them are WHITE BOX Transceiver makers like Google and Amazon, some of them are Network Equipment makers like Arista and Ciena, some of them are Transceiver Integrators like Lumentun, etc, here from the Technical FAQ's on the website
companies like Arista Networks and Ciena make networking equipment with 400G ports that can take optical pluggable transceivers. These transceivers contain the sort of optics that Lightwave Logic makes. So these companies would be customers, or customer’s customers (if they buy their optics from a transceiver integrator like Lumentum or Finisar). Arista makes Ethernet switches which have 400G ports on the front panel. You can plug copper cables into these ports to connect equipment a few meters away. But if you need to go longer, you plug in an optical transceiver to convert to an optical signal. The transceiver is where a LWLG modulator would be. In a way, you can think of the pluggable transceiver as a high-end analog of the adapters that plug into laptops to convert from USB to USB-C or HDMI, etc. Ciena makes transport systems that similarly have ports that our optics would plug into.
and teddybear, Lebby already told investors who the Customers would be, so these are the companies LWLG is most likely working with on the 200Gbs x4 Modulator PIC's for Transceiver Integration
TWST: Do you see your ideal customers like Cisco or whoever makes these particular modulation devices? Are they the ones who are going to buy?
Dr. Lebby: Yes, they will — a lot of these larger companies. The Ciscos of this world as well as the Intels and the Cienas, these types of players, Googles and others. A lot of these folks are actually vertically integrated. So they actually do a lot of the things themselves. And some of the parts they send out to foundries or to contract manufacturers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LWLG/comments/15twmqr/interview_with_dr_lebby_august_17_2023/
Folks, these are pretty bold statements by Lebby, and Lebby is one of the top Luminaries of the photonics Industry, personally I would NOT want to bet against him!!!
Oh, and teddybear, your BFF Andy already told investors that Polymer PIC's would be in HVP (High Volume Production) in 2026, this matches PERFECTLY with Lebby's long-standing Timeline of Customer Acceptance in 2024 and Ramping in 2025 and Mass Commercial in 2026!!
tedpeele
2 days ago
Newcomers, be alert for false claims of 'readiness for commercialization' by snake oil salesmen types which continue year after year, and are encouraged by those who need to sell millions of shares into the market to fund operations.
All the SEC filings give you a very clear answer: Do your research and read these documents instead of blindly believing those who have been wrong time and again over the years, and relative newcomers who have yet to see reality.
They have only one objective: pumping! A poster this morning thinks he has proof of a PDK being commercially ready by quoting the filing that says - accurately - that one measure is a working modulator chip, but anyone with half a brain realizes that there are many measures and requirements before a foundry is willing to put their stamp of approval - the most obvious one being whether the end product is commercially viable. The very fact that the company has yet to validate that they have something beyond a 'working PDK' to an actual 'commercial ready' PDK means that they don't.
Phrases like "worked with to help scale" and "will allow us to scale" don't mean they are currently suitable for high volume..
Demonstrating the ability to have voltage below 1V doesn't mean they can do so consistenty or with enough bandwidth, and Dr Lebby validated they are still working on getting a good enough combination during the Q&A at ASM. KCC reported that the wafer he saw had a dozen or more different kinds of modulators on it! That means they are still testing our different configurations, folks!
"to enable 4 lanes" means they can't do it. "transceiver companies have REVIEWED our technical results and VIEWED operating packaged polymer slot modulators". It's progress newcomers, but as always the devil is in the details and the company doesn't share those - which means this could be derailed or have hit walls that they just can't surpass. One must ask themselves "if they are ready" what's the hold up?".
They are NOT ready. 4x200 hasn't been demonstrated to be viable for commercialization, and 4x400 is nowhere close, unless you want to believe that plasmonics suddenly has leapfrogged non-plasmonics, because the latest word is that plasmonics is leading the race to 4x400. How can this be if Lightwave's modulators are anywhere close to 4x400, since plasmonics is supposed to be years from being viable commercially ? Oops, there;s that damn logic again! The under-informed here are pushing plasmonics - probably because the company is setting up to buy Polariton and the word is out -- but that is just another obfuscation at this point of the reality re their commercial viablity.
But what is the biggest indicator of all? The REMOVAL of their ASM 2023 goal of producing 7900 modulator units inside of transceivers. This was a goal set over a year ago to be completed in 2024. Well, here we are and the company hasn't yet said they even have a single demo transceiver yet. Or that they are even working on one. Rather they said the transceiver companies are looking for more data that will be coming around Jan - March of 2025. Coupled with his refusal to verify - when asked - if they are working on a demo, the answer is fairly obvious here: The 7900 number was a goal that the company had no clue would be achievable or not - and now we know why: Nobody is even willing to make a demo yet: Why should a transceiver company spend resources when they don't have the data they need and the company is not yet ready with a 4x200 and possibly years away from completing a 4x400?
it has been demonstrated that the interest from TIER 1 parties is immensely high
Nothing like that has been 'demonstrated'. The company has said there is "interest in learning more" and that some companies are "dragging them along" - most likely meaning they are telling Lightwave to make their technology work well enough to meet their needs. That's not a demonstration of "immensely high" interest. Geez..
Anyway, the poster apparently found my UPDATE yesterday to be quite disturbing enough to try and spin things along the same lines of the "deal any day" mantra that has permeated this board for over a decade by writing things like: This technology is ready to conquer the world.
It isn't ready at all and the company does a great job of disguising how far they really are, but they've given enough clues for those willing to see. I spell those out in the red flags posts designed to counter all the nonsense you read here, much of which is cut and pasted daily - which is also a red flag.
Here you go:
RED FLAGS UPDATE:
The Red Flags post that became a sticky contains numerous facts to support unfavorable conclusions in 3 areas:
1. Credibility: Questionable Company Practices
2. Viability: Missing Evidence for Commercial Viability
3. Validation: Lack of Validation by the Marketplace
That lengthy review is found here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172611173
I don't have the desire or motivation to do this justice by taking a lot of time, but off the top of my head here are the newest red flags since Aug of last year, broken down by the same categories:
Credibility: Questionable Company Practices
1. ECOC, fall of 2023. The messaging from that meeting was that previously the industry was engaged in debating how the future should unfold but not taking any action, as though it was an intellectual exercise only, and that this was the first time the industry was saying - we need to take action and put together standards for the future. This was a strong refutation of the idea that Tier1s had been coordinating since 2020 with Lightwave and Foundries to get their solution as soon as possible. That idea came in part from statements by the company which were exaggerated and repeated ad nauseum by Proto . Rather, the company stressed that at ECOC many companies 'expressed interest in learning' more about what Lightwave does. After 15 years the company is only in the first inning.
2. ECOC, fall of 2023 - reliability data set. Expectations were for a completed data reliability set that would blow the industry away, as several thousand hours of packaged modulator testing would have been completed by then. The company was happy to not correct any misunderstandings along those lines. Deals were expected to occur immediately (ie part of the TIer1-Lightwave-Foundry mindset). This never happened.
3. Dec 4, 2023 letter mentioned imminent deals - possibly by year end even. Nearly 8 months later and no deal. Since the letter came out as the share price was dropping strongly - it appears the company strongly and knowingly misled shareholders in order to manipulate the share price.
4.Early March, 2024 4th quarter commentary explained the lack of deals as being related to the demand for more reliability and scalability data. A few months later the message changed to the company deciding to focus on the Tier1s. These aren't mutually exclusive, but the messaging regarding reliability and scalability became buried and lost under the new Tier1 message. Additionally one wonders how they could not have known reliability and scalability concerns were a deal-breaker issue when they released the Dec 4 letter?
5. Early March, 2024 company reveals the first 200mm wafer, which for the for the first time was evidence of the ability - in theory - to produce in high volume in a foundry. The company had led investors to believe over a year prior that 200mm was not a problem at that time, and that scalability was not a problem at that time. PDKs will not be considered 'commercial ready' unless scalability is possible. All of this was supposed to have been completed by ASM 2023, and the company made it sound like all was on-track and on-board ("focused 100% on commercialization") with completed PDKs and high volume ready to go at that time. This we now know was highly misleading.
6. Company announces progress with 200x4 but is intentionally very vague about all kinds of details. They claim they showed a demo at OFC having 'world class results', that has opened many doors and caused engineer teams from various companies to visit Lightwave;s building, etc... The true status remains highly suspect.
7. After OFC the company says they shifted focus on Tier1s, away (presumably) from smaller, interested companies (the ones they supposedly were working with when he wrote the Dec 4 letter). This implied drop of potential deals simply to go after larger companies is hard to believe.
8. The 7900 sales of modulator units inside transceivers projection made in ASM 2023. This was a goal that should not have been set since they still - a year later - don't even have a working demo...they haven't even verified that anyone is willing to make one yet. Why did they make this goal? Why do they set any of these goals?: To keep shareholders excited by setting high expectations. Now this year he admitted in the Benzinga interview that a goal for 2024 is to "reset shareholder expectations". Geez...I wonder why that had to be a goal?
2. Viability: Missing Evidence for Commercial Viability
1. The company still has not validated that any potential customers are testing anything from Lightwave, only that their modulators are 'suitable' for trials. (I think - it would NOT be surprising though if the engineers are running some kinds of tests), but I don't recall any granularity along these lines - just implications from those who took the lab tour.
2. The company has not validated that any potential transceiver companies are currently even working on a demo with them. They have said in the past that they are 'working with' transceiver companies, but that doesn't mean they are working on creating a demo now, or even have in the past. When K directly asked Dr Lebby to verify that they were working on a demo - he did not do so.
3. The company said at ASM 2024 that in another 6-9 months the transceiver companies would have more of the kinds of data they are looking for, but the company doesn't tell investors what they are looking for. The company also doesn't provide metrics that prove scalability other than what seemed like an off-the-cuff statement at the end of their OFC presentation about being able to pole 1000 modulators quickly. No summary of vital technical stats - like yield rates, insertion loss,etc....The continued ongoing and obvious obfuscation cannot be denied.
4. A photonics leader at ETH(or was it Zurich) announced that plasmonics (with Lighwave's perk) was leading the way in the race for 400 4 lane commercialization. Since this company had worked closely with Lightwave previously this begs the question: Why is he touting plasmonics which is considered to be years off - and not Lighwave's own polymer modulator technology solution, if LIghwave were as close as they lead investors to think?
5. Removal of their goal to selling 7900 modulator units inside of transceivers in 2024. This projection of market capture (SAM TAM) in 2023 was done without a single demo transceiver in existence for customer evaluation. As the time marched on, they HAD to remove this projection..how can you sell units when you don't even have a demo yet?
3. Validation: Lack of Validation by the Marketplace
1. There are no new indications in the last year that validate the company's technology as being taken seriously by the industry, even after supposedly showing a 'world class' result at OFC. Still no signs in the stock price movement, still no known actively-managed funds taking a big stake, still no big private investments from tech first or wealthy investors 'in the know'. Still no insider purchases suggesting a big announcement or breakthrough is anywhere close - still no legal, automatic share purchase arrangements from insiders.
2. An analyst told me that in the optical world that he/she knows Lightwave's name just doesn't come up, and that his/her best source says polymers will never be accepted by the industry, even that it is a million to 1 shot. Analysts can be wrong - operating on old ideas and data, but Dr Lebby himself said that polymers have a bad rep (or rap) in the industry. Meanwhile it is reported that GFS - the most promising potential partner - has revealed the materials being used for their FOTONIX program to be BTO and something else, but not perkanimine.
3. Stil no analyst report other than words of skepticism by Mark Lutkowitz who posted on LInkedin that until a (single) high level engineer at a hyperscaler says something positive to him about Lightwave's technology he can't get on board. This is in contrast to his knowledge from MANY hyperscalers in the industry who has said positive things about the potential of TFLN.
The facts - which include many new facts continue to strongly support negative conclusions in each of the 3 areas There are even more red flags now than before. . That doesn't mean they aren't making progress. It does mean that skepticism is not only warranted but is the most logical position to take.
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