New light vehicle sales in June are expected to be assisted
by the month-end holiday boost
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., June 26,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Signs of green shoots within the
auto demand environment continue to emerge as June US auto sales
are expected to follow-up on the solid volume levels of the
preceding two months.
S&P Global Mobility projects new light
vehicle sales volume in June 2023 to
reach 1.38 million units, up 17% y-o-y.
S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume
in June 2023 to reach 1.38 million
units, up 17% year over year, and representing the 11th
consecutive month in which volume has improved from the year-prior
level. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace of
15.9 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR),
pressing the 16.0-million-unit level for the second time in the
quarter.
"For the second consecutive month, auto sales volumes will be
supported by month-end holiday programs," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P
Global Mobility. "That automakers have the ability to offer holiday
clearance incentives is a positive sign. It also indicates that
some of the concerns regarding new vehicle affordability, low
inventories, macroeconomic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and
tighter credit conditions are not causing retrenchment by consumers
still in the market for a new vehicle."
According to S&P Global Mobility's proprietary analysis of
advertised dealer inventory, June inventory levels remain
consistent with recent trend level of approximately 2.050 million
vehicles.
"New vehicle production support exists in the form of inventory
restocking," said Joe Langley,
associate director at S&P Global Mobility. "However, there
are signs that manufacturers are working to preserve their strong
pricing power at the expense of building back inventory levels at
an excessive pace."
The estimated June sales result would move year to date 2023
sales volume to 7.7 million units, growth of over 12% from the
respective 2022 level. In addition, sales in the second
quarter would total approximately 4.1 million units, up
approximately 581,000 units from the second quarter of 2022.
Mixed signals continue to prevail within the new vehicle demand
environment, and we do not expect sales volumes over the next
several months to dynamically change from the current trend.
S&P Global Mobility projects calendar year 2023 new vehicle
sales volume to reach 15.1 million units, growth of 9%, or an
incremental 1.2 million units, from the 2022 level.
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Jun 23
(Est)
|
May
23
|
Jun
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,380,000
|
1,362,018
|
1,143,820
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.8
|
15.0
|
13.0
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.5
|
11.9
|
10.3
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.3
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains a constant assumption for 2023 although some month-to-month
volatility is expected. BEV share is expected to reach 7.0% of June
sales, remaining on trend with the preceding months, pushing
year-to-date BEV sales growth to an estimated 46%. Looking at the
remainder of the year, beyond potential future pricing developments
by Tesla, a sustained churn of new and refreshed BEVs and
aggressive BEV production expectations will continue to promote BEV
sales as the year progresses.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility