DALLAS, Oct. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Texas Economic Activity Index was flat in July, unchanged at a
level of 99. June's reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the
index cyclical low of 83. Year-to-date the index has averaged
96, six points above the average for all of 2010.
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"Texas is a growth leader for
the U.S. economy, with strong high tech and energy sectors and
strong demographic growth," said Robert
Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "However, the recent
downshift in global macroeconomic expectations is a warning sign
for Texas, and lower energy prices
could sap the strength from the energy sector. With the likelihood
of a U.S. recession before the end of 2012 now at 50 percent, we
have to consider what a recession might look like for Texas. My expectation is that if we do see a
U.S. recession, it will be less severe than 2008/2009. Texas would feel the drag of weaker energy and
non-energy exports, but Texas
would again be among the last in, and the first out, of a new
recession."
As of this release, seasonal factors of the Texas Economic
Activity Index have been updated, consistent with the annual
revision process. The Texas Economic Activity Index equally weights
eight, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic
activity. The eight indicators reflect activity in the
manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and
consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month
moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index
is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100. A complete, revised
historical series dating to 1997 is available upon request.
Comerica Bank is the commercial banking subsidiary of Comerica
Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. banking company
headquartered in Texas, and is
strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Dallas, Houston, Austin, San
Antonio and Kerrville,
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank